REVEALED: One Price Pattern has DOMINATED EVERY Market Phase Would you believe that a single price pattern that anyone can find on a chart has maintained an 80% historical win rate through every type of market condition? Learn how to spot this pattern in a free trading workshop. [Discover Now]( By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from WealthPress and its partners ([privacy policy]( Fed Projected to Raise Interest Rates to 22-Year High: Key Areas to Watch Weekly Market Overview Hi Traders, The Federal Reserve is likely to lift interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on today to a record high in 22 years. However, the focus of most investors is on what might cause the central bank to increase rates again later this year. The strong economic growth of recent months could make it challenging for Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, to indicate that the short-term benchmark rate hike on Wednesday would mark the end of the current tightening cycle, as anticipated by investors. Furthermore, the recent dip in inflation could complicate the central bank's plans for any future rate hikes. The decision of the Federal Reserve will be announced at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell scheduled to answer questions from reporters half an hour later. However, officials won't release quarterly interest rate and economic projections after this week's two-day meeting. Last month, the Fed maintained interest rates within a range of 5% to 5.25% after ten consecutive increases since March 2022, when officials increased the rates from near zero. A closer look at the market reveals that despite recent positive news about inflation, officials are inclined to increase rates this week. This decision is motivated in part by stronger-than-expected hiring and economic activities since May. Furthermore, some officials are eager to observe if the easing of inflation continues before ending the increases. Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned in a July speech that he wished to see proof that the recent slowdown in inflation was not a one-time event. In his words, "The recent report warmed my heart, but...I've got to make policy with my head. And I can't do that on one data point." Most Fed officials in June considered two more rate rises this year. Investors will be attentively following Powell's press conference for indications that the next meeting of the central bank in September could entail a strong consideration of a rate increase. Investors are also on the lookout for signs that the central bank might be comfortable holding rates steady in September, giving the economy more time to develop. Powell justified last month's decision to pause increases as an attempt to allow officials more time to understand the impact of the Fed's past actions. The inflation outlook will be closely monitored by investors. They will want to know whether one or two additional readings similar to the June consumer-price index would be sufficient for officials to reduce their inflation forecast. As for the labor market, officials are eager to see proof of slowing economic activities, hiring, and wage growth, even if inflation reduces faster than previously anticipated. However, there's an ongoing debate about the extent of the proof required. Finally, questions about the outlook for the neutral interest rate, or the rate that balances supply and demand when the economy is at full strength, may come up. If this rate is rising, it could significantly affect bond prices and asset markets as it may suggest that interest rates are likely to settle at a higher level, even if inflation returns to lower levels. Summing it all up, the Federal Reserve's decision, as well as the subsequent statements and indications from Chair Jerome Powell, will significantly influence the market direction for the foreseeable future. - The Team at Altos Trading (In the next article, any scenario might already be priced in. Scroll below to know more.) Sponsored
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[Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( On the Other Hand, Markets Might Just Shrug Off Any Fed Surprise Today Present times might offer the Federal Reserve an optimal moment to take a decision on interest rates that could surprise market players while ensuring minimal disruption, according to recent academic findings. Today, market pundits are forecasting the Fed to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. If the Federal Reserve chose to disregard these predictions and left rates unchanged, a stock market rally would be the most likely outcome. On the contrary, a decision to raise them higher could result in a market downturn. Interestingly, how the market reacts to such unexpected decisions is closely tied to Wall Street's 'uncertainty barometer', the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, as per a study published online recently by economists from the Bank of Israel. They found that heightened VIX levels corresponded to amplified reactions in the stock market. Currently, the VIX index is registering lower levels than usual, with a score of around 14 points against its long-term average of approximately 21 points. This lower value suggests a more subdued reaction from the market to any unexpected move. Let's consider a scenario: if the Fed chooses to maintain current rates instead of raising them, the economists predict an immediate surge of 1.3% in the stock market. However, this could have been a 2% surge if the VIX was around its long-term average. Why does this happen? The economists explain that the VIX serves as an indicator of market anxiety regarding future events. When this uncertainty is high, the market perceives new information as being more critical, leading to more significant impacts. However, it's important to add a disclaimer here. The researchers' conclusion was derived by scrutinizing market changes within a half-hour duration surrounding the Fed and Bank of Israel announcements. Hence, what this means for the long-term market responses remains a question. Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
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USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
Suite 169
Boise Idaho 83714
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