[Altos Weekly Newsletter] Will the Federal Reserve Meeting Be a Turning Point...Details Inside

Hello Traders! We hope you find this weekly FREE newsletter filled with information that helps your trading day! And it is all looking rosey right now..... Today we talk about a report about a day trading system that might be too good to be true... And Earning reports drop for some big hitters..what does it mean for the S&P? Thanks for reading and good luck in the markets today!! The Team at Altos Trading The Most Powerful Patterns in the Stock Market These 5 unique patterns have proven to be incredibly historically accurate. Most investors have no idea which price patterns work and which don’t… And it may SHOCK you when you see which one performs best. [LEARN THIS TODAY]( By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from WealthPress and its partners ([privacy policy]( SPONSOR ⬆️ MARKET NEWS Bear Market to Bull Market: Will the Federal Reserve Meeting Be the Turning Point? As we approach the announcement of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy plans, the financial world holds its breath. For stock market investors, this could well be the most critical day of the year. The Fed's decision could tip the scales between a bear market recovery and a bull market surge, making it an essential event for the financial landscape. Dubbed "Fed Day," this is when the Federal Reserve reveals its decision on interest rate hikes for the month. Scheduled at 2 p.m. EST, this announcement is followed by a press conference thirty minutes later. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, Jerome Powell, is expected to shed light on the Fed's policy stance and the possible trajectory of future rate hikes. The potential implications of this press conference for the stock market cannot be overstated. The consensus among investors is a predicted 25 basis points increase in interest rates. The futures market has already accounted for this with a 90% probability of this hike and a mere 10% chance of it not occurring. This suggests that another rate hike is already factored into the stock market prices. However, the Fed's actions during its next meeting in June are less predictable. Futures pricing indicates a 70% chance that the Fed may halt its rate-hike campaign next month. But there remains a 30% possibility of another rate increase, which has left the market seeking clarity on this matter. Powell's press conference is anticipated to bring this clarity. The market's response will hinge on Powell's tone during the conference. If he leans towards a hawkish stance, implying another likely rate hike, stocks could plummet. Conversely, a dovish tilt suggesting a probable pause could propel stocks upwards. Significantly, from a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is at a crucial juncture (4,180) and could either serve as a launch pad for the next leg of the 2023 stock market rally, or become a ceiling that curbs its ascent. To predict the Fed's forthcoming actions, one must examine the two key determinants of its decision-making: inflation and employment. Inflation has been on a steady decline, with the Fed having successfully halved it from its peak. There are strong indicators that this decline will continue. Commodity prices are on the downward slope, global supply chains are fully restored, consumer spending is slowing, and significantly, bank lending is contracting. Bank lending is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. The greater the lending, the more cash flows into the hands of consumers and businesses, thereby increasing the demand side of the inflation equation. However, recent events, including the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and most recently, First Republic, have led to a sharp decrease in bank lending, the likes of which have not been seen since the 2008 financial crisis. This collapse, the third-largest in U.S. economic history, is expected to further push inflation towards the Fed's 2% target. In the past, such a dramatic fall in bank lending, as seen in late 2001 and late 2008, resulted in the Fed cutting rates and inflation reducing to 1%. With inflation apparently under control, the Fed may have inadvertently sparked a labor issue. Throughout 2022, labor shortages dominated the market. Now, the narrative has shifted towards job cuts, with companies highlighting this issue more than labor shortages during conference calls. The Fed's dual mandate of ensuring price stability and full employment is now in the spotlight. It has achieved its goal of price stability through rate hikes but is teetering on the brink of adversely impacting the labor market with further increases. Given these circumstances, it is likely that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach and halt rate hikes in June, a hint of which is expected from Powell during the press conference. Playing the "tough guy" with aggressive rate hikes is feasible when the job market is robust. However, as job losses mount, it becomes near impossible to continue this stance. Historically, the Fed has chosen to pause rate hikes in such scenarios. And it is during these pauses that stocks often rally. Now, as we stand on the brink of a pivotal moment for the stock market, the direction it takes, towards a bull or a bear market, will soon be determined. Based on the aforementioned factors, the odds appear to favor a bullish market. OUR LATEST DISCOVERY! How to Forecast Stocks, EFT's, Futures, FOREX and Crypto Currencies - up to three days in advance!! [LEARN MORE TODAY]( CLICK HERE ⬆️ MARKET NEWS The Great Bank Consolidation: What to Expect in the Coming Wave of Mergers The recent financial predicament of numerous American banks is increasingly apparent. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, larger banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have managed to attract deposits despite offering minimal interest, as evidenced by earnings reports released post-April 14th. Conversely, small and medium-sized banks are grappling with rising competition for customers and increasing funding costs. Western Alliance, a $71 billion asset lender, reported on April 18th an 11% decline in deposits this year. To regain these deposits, banks must offer higher interest rates, prompting many to resort to temporary loans, including from the Federal Reserve, at prevailing high interest rates. However, many banks have low-yield assets that cannot be liquidated without incurring losses, indicating an impending profit crunch. Although more banks were set to release earnings after the publication of this report, the market has already formed an opinion: the worth of America's banks is roughly equivalent to their combined book value, a significant decline from nearly a 40% premium at the start of the year. The likely outcome of these low valuations, coupled with an environment where size is critical, is a familiar response to banking crises over the past forty years: consolidation. America houses 4,700 banks and savings institutions, translating to one for every 71,000 residents. In comparison, the EU, with one bank for every 85,000 people, might view this as excessive. However, it represents a historical low: in 1984, when the population was significantly smaller, there were almost four times as many institutions. Since then, the industry has experienced near-continuous consolidation. The largest merger wave occurred in the aftermath of the savings and loan associations (S&Ls) crisis in the late 1980s, enabling stronger banks to capitalize on the remains. Regulatory changes, including the abolition of cross-state banking restrictions, further spurred banks' growth. There are noteworthy similarities between the current scenario and the past. Many S&Ls collapsed as their funding costs soared due to rising interest rates, while their mortgage loans yielded low, fixed interest rates. At one point, nearly two-thirds of S&Ls would have been insolvent if their assets had been marked to market. While today's banks' balance sheet issues are less acute, they echo those of the past. As of the end of 2022, over 400 banks with nearly $4 trillion in combined assets reported unrealized losses on their securities portfolios equivalent to at least half of their core equity capital. Accounting for their fixed-rate loan books and potential future losses on commercial property loans, the deficit would be even larger. Simultaneously, smaller banks risk losing their current regulatory advantages. Banks with less than $700 billion in assets typically do not need to mark to market the securities deemed "available for sale" when calculating their regulatory capital. Those under $250 billion are exempt from the strictest liquidity rules, stress tests, and failure planning. This lenient regulatory regime is under review by domestic and international regulators. In Washington, Congress and the Fed's 2018 and 2019 relaxation of rules for midsize banks is being revisited. The most critical market structure changes are likely to involve banks close to significant regulatory thresholds. If the penalty for crossing the $250 billion threshold is lessened, many of the 20 banks between $100 billion and $250 billion in size might find merging beneficial. This would enable them to distribute rising regulatory compliance costs over a larger entity and increase the likelihood of depositor bailouts in a crisis. Regulators might favor mergers that absorb struggling banks potentially resorting to high-risk gambles for survival - a tactic that exacerbated the 1980s S&L crisis. If so, the current crisis will serve as the latest catalyst for banks to pursue growth through consolidation. The banking sector in the United States seems poised for significant changes, with consolidation being the most viable option for many institutions. It is important to note that this process is not new; rather, it is a response to historical and current financial challenges. The merging of banks could create more robust entities, better equipped to navigate the evolving economic landscape and address regulatory requirements. As the banking sector moves towards consolidation, it is crucial for regulators and policymakers to balance the need for stability with the potential risks that come with larger, more interconnected financial institutions. By doing so, they can help create a stronger and more resilient banking system that will benefit the U.S. economy and its consumers in the long run. Ultimately, the current crisis may serve as a significant turning point for the American banking industry, driving further consolidation and fostering the development of larger, more stable financial institutions. One Trading Legend... Two PhD Software Engineers Three Years Of Testing & Refinement… The ONLY Trading System that can Find the Top-Performers in Just Minutes a Day. [CLICK HERE TO RESERVE YOUR SPOT FOR TOMORROW'S WEBINAR]( SPACE IS LIMITED - REGISTER TODAY ⬆️ Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](