[Altos Weekly Newsletter] Can Short Interest in Stocks be a Positive Signal? Details Inside...

Hello Traders! We hope you find this weekly FREE newsletter filled with information that helps your trading day! And it is all looking rosey right now..... Today we talk about positive signs for the market Plus...Treasury Secretary Yellen shows strong optimism even with a cloudy media perspective Thanks for reading and good luck in the markets today!! The Team at Altos Trading VIDEO - NEW STRATEGY "In 4:35 I am going to show you what I believe to be the biggest investing opportunity for the next decade" [TAKE A LOOK AT THIS!]( By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from WealthPress and its partners ([privacy policy]( SPONSOR ⬆️ MARKET NEWS Don't Panic: Increasing Short Interest in US Stocks is a Historically Positive Signal Lately, traders are pretty convinced that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a selloff. But hold your horses, because history tends to show the opposite is more likely, according to an analysis by a macro strategist. Surprisingly, speculative traders are more bearish now than at any time in the past decade, as revealed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitment of traders report. This report keeps an eye on futures-market positioning across various currencies, commodities, and U.S. equity indexes. As of April 4, net-short bets by noncommercial traders in S&P 500 e-mini futures have ballooned to 321,459 contracts – the highest level since October 2011. Now, here's the twist: futures-market positioning is often seen as a counter-indicator by equity strategists. In simple terms, the market frequently does the opposite of what futures traders anticipate, especially when positioning is heavily crowded in one direction or the other. But remember, the past doesn't guarantee future performance. Looking back over the last 25 years, Brent Donnelly, a global macro strategist at Spectra Markets, observed that outsized short positioning in futures has generally acted as a counter-indicator. He pointed out six periods since 2000 when positioning in e-minis leaned heavily toward the downside. Interestingly, during four of those periods, the signal turned out to be bullish, implying that stocks were higher six months to a year later. Donnelly shared his thoughts during a phone interview with MarketWatch, saying, "My impression is it's probably not any different this time. People are betting on a crisis, but I just don't think it's going to happen." While short positioning grows, sell-side equity strategists on Wall Street are becoming increasingly pessimistic. They're advising clients that the S&P 500 might finally break lower after rising over 7% since the start of the year, as per FactSet data. Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo, mentioned in a note to clients that his team expects the S&P 500 to experience a 10% correction over the next three to six months. The reason? U.S. banks are anticipated to cut back on lending, worsening an economic downturn expected to hit during the second half of 2023. Sean Darby, chief global equity strategist at Jefferies, also predicts a retreat for U.S. stocks based on movements in bond and commodity markets. However, Darby highlighted a noticeable disconnect between futures and actual stocks. While futures traders brace for a brutal selloff, cash equity position liquidations have remained relatively mild. S&P 500 e-minis are traded by retail traders and institutions like hedge funds and commodity-trading advisors. These traders use futures to hedge their positions or make speculative bets on market moves with margin and embedded leverage. Sure, signs of stress are reappearing in the market. Over the past week, market-leading megacap technology companies like Microsoft and Apple have seen their lead begin to slip. As a result, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen in five of the last six sessions through Tuesday's close. Other stress indicators include gold futures trading above $2,000 per ounce and a pullback in long-dated Treasury yields. Additionally, the upcoming corporate earnings reporting season is causing some jitters, as earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline for the second consecutive quarter – and at the steepest rate since the third quarter of 2020. The FactSet consensus estimate, which compiles Wall Street forecasts, indicates a 6.8% drop in S&P 500 earnings per share during the first quarter compared to the same period in 2022. So, while traders might be gearing up for a selloff, history seems to suggest that things might not be as dire as they appear. It's important for investors to keep an eye on market trends and indicators, but also to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. As the market continues to evolve and react to various factors, it's crucial to maintain a balanced and diversified investment approach. So, while traders might be bracing for a storm, it could just be a case of clouds with no rain. Keep your umbrellas handy, but don't let the fear of a downpour dampen your spirits. Stay informed, make educated decisions, and always remember that the market has a way of surprising us all. OUR LATEST DISCOVERY! How to Forecast Stocks, EFT's, Futures, FOREX and Crypto Currencies - up to three days in advance!! [LEARN MORE TODAY]( CLICK HERE ⬆️ ECONOMIC NEWS Treasury Secretary Yellen Optimistic Despite Banking Sector Challenges US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen remains optimistic about the economy despite recent banking turmoil, stating that the economy is in a better position now than it was six months ago. She expressed confidence in the availability of credit in the US during a press conference in Washington on Tuesday. Although acknowledging the possibility of credit contraction, Yellen highlighted the US economy's exceptional performance with solid job creation, decreasing inflation, and strong consumer spending. Yellen's comments were made at the beginning of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund's (IMF) spring meetings in the US capital. Her outlook on US credit comes despite Federal Reserve data showing a record contraction in lending during the last two weeks of March. This followed the near-collapse of two mid-sized US lenders in March, which threatened financial stability and growth. Additionally, the near-collapse of European banking giant Credit Suisse Group in March rattled investors worldwide. The IMF's revised economic outlook for 2023, released on Tuesday, presented a more cautious view. The organization lowered its global growth projections to 2.8% for this year and 3% for 2024, citing financial sector stress, tighter monetary policy, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine as contributing factors. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire also offered a less optimistic perspective, emphasizing the challenging economic situation marked by slowing global growth and persistent inflation in many countries. He predicted that global growth would fall below 3% in 2023, representing one of the weakest rates in decades, excluding the Covid pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. Yellen, a former US central bank chair, acknowledged that inflation remains too high but noted positive signs of moderation over the past six months. She expressed confidence in the US banking system's soundness, citing strong capital and liquidity positions, and praised the global financial system's resilience due to significant reforms implemented after the financial crisis. During the week, Yellen's priorities include encouraging China to agree to debt-restructuring talks for Zambia and other impoverished nations, advocating for World Bank reforms, and urging countries to continue supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. In response to concerns about the Biden administration's "friendshoring" strategy to reduce supply-chain dependence on China, Yellen dismissed the idea that the policy would harm global economic growth by disrupting trade ties. She argued that friendshoring is a practical approach to address very real supply-chain risks while preserving the benefits of global trade. The primary concern, according to Yellen, is over-dependence on China. One Trading Legend... Two PhD Software Engineers Three Years Of Testing & Refinement… The ONLY Trading System that can Find the Top-Performers in Just Minutes a Day. [CLICK HERE TO RESERVE YOUR SPOT FOR TOMORROW'S WEBINAR]( SPACE IS LIMITED - REGISTER TODAY ⬆️ Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](