[Altos Weekly Traders Edge] Dow 40,000 - A Milestone or Just Another Number?

WATCH: REPLAY AVAILABLE: $0.25 Cent Trades Recently, a legendary trader revealed how his new Cent Trades]( works… If you didn’t see it, here’s the deal… As long as the $0.25 Cent Trades are set the day before some predetermined dates his team and he found… Well, that’s when the magic happens… And their backtest shows they have a shot to jump in before they double, even triple in a matter of days! PLUS, Tom also provided a password protected copy of a calendar with ALL of these predetermined dates that are set to pay out big this year! [See the replay for yourself]( so you can get all the details on Tom’s $0.25 Cent Trades now! By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from ProsperityPub and its partners ([privacy policy]( Dow 40,000 - A Milestone or Just Another Number? Weekly Market Overview Hi Traders, The U.S. stock market has once again reached new heights, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing the 40,000 mark. While some may view this as a temporary peak, others see it as another stepping stone on the path to even greater milestones. In fact, two future targets have been set by investment legends – Dow 116,200 and the elusive Dow 1 million. Bill Berger, a pioneer in the mutual fund industry, made waves in 1995 when he predicted the Dow would reach 116,200 by 2040. At the time, with the Dow hovering around 4,500, his forecast seemed laughable. However, Berger's prediction was based on a simple premise – that the Dow would deliver the same average returns over the next 45 years as it had during his investment career, which began in 1950 with the Dow around 200. Even more audacious was the prediction made by Warren Buffett in 2017, when he boldly stated that the Dow would reach 1 million. This was at a time when the index was just over 22,000. While these numbers may seem outlandish, it's important to note that neither Berger nor Buffett based their forecasts on market activity or valuations. Instead, they relied on the power of long-term averages and the belief that history would repeat itself. In contrast, the infamous "Dow 36,000" prediction made in 1999 by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett was driven by market forces. The authors believed that stock valuations were wildly low and that the Dow would quadruple within three to five years. However, it took a staggering 22 years for their prediction to come true, highlighting the pitfalls of market-based forecasting. As we celebrate Dow 40,000, it's worth considering the significance of Berger's and Buffett's predictions. If the Dow continues to deliver an annualized gain of roughly 7% – half of its average over the past decade – it would reach Berger's target of 116,200 early in 2040, just as he predicted. At the same rate, it would take approximately 48 years to reach the lofty heights of Dow 1 million, as envisioned by Buffett. While a 7% annual gain may seem conservative, it's important to note that the Dow's price-only annual average since its inception in 1896 is a respectable 5.53%. At this rate, the benchmark would reach 1 million from its current level of 40,000 in just under 60 years. Investors, however, seem particularly jumpy despite the market's new highs, perhaps spooked by the impact of high inflation on their spending. Many are predicting a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a potential correction or bear market for stocks. Time horizon truly matters, both in forecasts and in your portfolio management. As Bill Berger wisely stated, "There's not an investor who has been alive for the last 60 years or more who hasn't seen the market rise over their lifetimes." This period included much of the Great Depression. "So I don't know exactly where the market is going over the next five or six decades," Berger said, "but I know it will be up." In light of Dow 40,000, that's about as much as any investor should be predicting and acting on today. While short-term volatility is inevitable, those with a long-term perspective and a diversified portfolio can take solace in the market's historical upward trajectory. Whether you celebrate Dow 40,000 or view it as a potential market top, keeping Berger's and Buffett's forecasts in mind can provide a valuable perspective on the power of patience and compounding returns. - The Team at Altos Trading In the next article: Citi's chief US economist warns of a looming hard landing for the US economy, with rising unemployment triggering deep rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as the only solution. Sponsor Sponsor 93.5% Win Rate On 60+ Trade Alerts Today I want to show you how our research shows you could’ve grown a $25,000 account into $109,616.12 within the last TWO months. 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The result was a 93.5% win rate, an average return of 13.7% including winners and losers and average hold time of less than 24 hours. Performance is not indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners ([privacy policy]( Hard Landing Looms for US Economy, Warns Citi Chief Economist The US economy is headed for a hard landing this year, with deep rate cuts by the Federal Reserve being the only way to mitigate the downturn, according to Citigroup's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst. Hollenhorst sees a deteriorating labor market as the main catalyst for a sharp economic reversal later this year. "Firms are hiring at a lower rate and workers are working less hours," he explained. "This gradual softening has already begun and could snowball into a hard landing." While recent labor-market data hasn't been entirely dire, Hollenhorst highlights some troubling signs. He points to survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business showing that small businesses' hiring intentions are at their lowest levels since 2016. He also notes that the overall hiring rate in the economy is the lowest it's been in a decade. Another worrying trend Hollenhorst identified is the recent uptick in the national unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.9%. He predicts that if unemployment rises above 4%, the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as July. He expects a total of four rate cuts before the end of 2024. Hollenhorst isn't alone in his prediction of a hard landing due to labor-market deterioration. Other analysts, such as veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth, have also voiced similar concerns. Hollenhorst believes that the Fed's higher-for-longer interest-rate policy, combined with dwindling consumer savings, will further pressure corporate earnings and exacerbate the economic downturn. He argues that rate cuts are necessary to stimulate the economy and prevent a full-blown recession. Overall, the outlook for the US economy seems precarious, with a hard landing becoming increasingly likely. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and the Fed's tight monetary policy could further dampen economic activity. Rate cuts may be the only way to cushion the fall and prevent a severe recession. However, the effectiveness and timing of such measures remain uncertain. Sponsor [New Customers earn 5.25% APY* (variable)]( Store your money with Cash Reserve, a high-yield account built for peace of mind. New customers earn 5.25% variable APY*—that’s 13x higher than the national savings rate. ** Plus, your money’s FDIC-insured up to $2M†at our program banks and no limits on withdrawals and transfers. **The national average savings account interest rate is reported by the FDIC (as of 5/15/23) as the average annual percentage yield (APY) for savings accounts with deposits under $100,000. [Sign Up Now!]( Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](