[Altos Weekly Traders Edge] Is the Rate Cut Dream Fading...Details Inside

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The Federal Reserve is flashing some strong signals that keeping rates steady is the preferred course right now, even as economic growth begins to cool. Let's break down the key factors influencing this decision and why it matters to your pocketbook. Conflicting Economic Signals Recent economic reports have painted a mixed picture. On the one hand, the jobs market continues to exhibit impressive strength. The March jobs report showed robust growth, suggesting a healthy labor market with the potential to absorb further rate changes. This positive trend aligns with the Fed's goals of ensuring employment remains strong. On the other hand, inflation continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side. Despite some encouraging signs earlier in the year, March saw a slight uptick in both the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index. Since inflation remains above the Fed's target, caution remains the name of the game. The Fed is understandably hesitant to declare victory against inflation prematurely. A hasty rate cut could spark a resurgence, forcing them to play catch up and leading to an even more challenging economic environment. Chairman Powell's Cautious Stance Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed the importance of a "wait and see" approach. He wants to ensure that inflation is truly on a consistent downward path before pulling the rate-cut trigger. The Economic Impact: What This Means for You The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates has immediate implications for consumers. Mortgage rates, credit card interest, and other borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. This puts pressure on household budgets and might slow down some aspects of the economy. However, it's important to remember that the Fed's actions are aimed at fostering long-term stability. The Political Angle: Pressure on the Fed Unsurprisingly, there's some pushback to the Fed's approach, especially from those who feel the pain of high borrowing costs. Some Democratic lawmakers have urged Powell to consider rate cuts sooner, arguing that maintaining rates unnecessarily hurts consumers and businesses. It remains to be seen whether this pressure will influence the Fed's decision-making. The Bottom Line The interest rate landscape remains fluid. While earlier optimism for rate cuts may be waning, the Fed's actions seem driven by a desire for long-term economic health. Keep a close eye on economic data and announcements from the Fed. As always, we'll keep you informed about major developments and provide expert analysis on how they might impact your financial life. - The Team at Altos Trading In the next article: Market tremors signal a potential S&P 500 correction and instability in Asian currencies – here's what's driving the volatility. 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The trades expressed are from historical data in order to demonstrate the potential of the system. [By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners (]( policy]( Market Volatility Alert - S&P Correction or Asian Currency Risk? Market turbulence continues. The traditional "Sell in May" sentiment may have arrived early as yields sparked a brutal April selloff and tech heavyweights underperformed. This raises the specter of both a looming correction in the S&P 500 and potential vulnerability in Asian currencies. Here's what you need to keep on your radar. Market Divergence & the Domino Effect China, the ECB, and the BOJ are scrambling to keep their currencies from depreciating against the USD. They're facing a difficult balancing act – trying to contain the fallout from US policy without stifling their own economies. Of particular concern is Japan, where keeping interest rates low has severely weakened the yen. An abrupt policy change could have dramatic consequences due to Japan's massive debt burden. US Jobs: Contradictory Signals The US jobs market seems to be sending mixed messages. While official data hasn't shown weakness yet, Beamish points out troubling independent surveys. Small business hiring plans have deteriorated sharply, and some employment indexes hint at a looming slowdown. These early warning signs might get overlooked by the Fed initially. However, if they're validated by the official jobs report this Friday, it could significantly shift market sentiment. The Asian Currency Pressure Cooker The viability of Asian currency strategies hinges heavily on the US economy hitting a sweet spot. Beamish emphasizes that inflation needs to ease, but not at the expense of overall growth. China is desperately trying to maintain its USD currency peg, essentially chasing Fed policy while stifling its own internal growth. Japan, meanwhile, needs US inflation to cool rapidly to justify its current low-interest rate stance. Neither country has much room to maneuver. What This Means for Traders & Investors Increased volatility is the name of the game right now. Keep a close eye on tech earnings reports, as they continue to influence market sentiment disproportionately. Pay extra attention to Friday's jobs data release, as any perceived weakness could trigger a broad stock market correction. Investors with exposure to Asian markets should remember the potential for ripple effects from currency instability. Sponsor [New Customers earn 5.25% APY* (variable)]( Store your money with Cash Reserve, a high-yield account built for peace of mind. New customers earn 5.25% variable APY*—that’s 13x higher than the national savings rate. ** Plus, your money’s FDIC-insured up to $2M†at our program banks and no limits on withdrawals and transfers. **The national average savings account interest rate is reported by the FDIC (as of 5/15/23) as the average annual percentage yield (APY) for savings accounts with deposits under $100,000. [Sign Up Now!]( Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](