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WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW â
What are Markets Pricing In? Hi Traders, The recent bull run in stocks has been remarkable. However, itâs becoming difficult to ignore that the major indices, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, may be flirting with overvaluation. While we aren't saying a market correction is around the corner, it might be wise to look for investment opportunities outside the usual headline-grabbing tech giants. Reading the Economic Tea Leaves As investors, we seek to understand how market expectations align with economic realities. One of our analysts finds the ISM Manufacturing PMI a particularly useful gauge of the business cycle. This indicator, paired with the performance of various asset classes, offers a valuable check on market enthusiasm. Currently, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq appear to be pricing in a PMI around the 60 mark. Historically, that suggests a booming economy. In contrast, the Russell 2000, emerging markets, and global equities overall point to a more modest PMI of 50-55, consistent with expansionary but not necessarily explosive growth. The Future is Bright, But Markets May Be Running Ahead Equity markets, of course, focus on the future. The aggressive pricing of the S&P 500 could be justified if economic forecasts prove accurate. Fortunately, leading indicators point towards a rebounding PMI to the 55-60 range by late 2024, aligning with bullish market sentiment. This is supported by trends in corporate earnings growth, again fueling the impressive rally in top tech stocks. Where's the Hidden Value? However, other areas of the market tell a slightly different story. One analyst observes that sectors sensitive to immediate economic trends, like industrials and materials, are seemingly undervalued. This is especially true if growth accelerates as expected in 2024. Interestingly, commodities markets also signal caution. Prices for resources like copper and crude oil haven't surged in a way that reflects a major economic upswing in 2024. These shorter-duration assets could be poised for significant outperformance as the cyclical recovery takes hold. In fact, it seems commercial hedgers are already positioning themselves bullishly in commodities â a strong sign of things to come. Cautious Optimism: Mind the Fed It's impossible to ignore short-term risks. While our leading indicators point to growth, we need confirmation from shorter-term signals. A potential uptick in unemployment figures this quarter could temporarily dampen enthusiasm for cyclical assets. Furthermore, recent monetary policy moves suggest the Fed may be turning dovish sooner than expected. While this initial phase might be supportive of the market, any sustained inflation or robust growth could push the Fed back towards a restrictive policy stance. This hawkish pivot will likely create headwinds for equities later in 2024. Given that possibility, a hedge with exposure to precious metals could provide a valuable counterbalance. The Takeaway While the overall outlook remains positive, now may be the time to diversify your portfolio beyond just the big growth names. A rotation could put a spotlight on commodities, materials, industrials, and the often-overlooked smaller companies of the Russell 2000. Remember, timing is always key, and keeping a close eye on economic data will be essential to riding this next wave of growth. - The Team at Altos Trading SPONSOR Right now, some of the HARDEST working folks are getting destroyed by inflation. And thatâs left folks looking anywhere they can to generate extra income to cover the bills. Itâs almost impossible to keep up with the ever rising costs of living anymore⦠Most folks think that the ONLY way to generate extra income is by picking up a second job at Costco⦠Or working overtime hours and late weekend nights. But with what two legendary traders are about to share⦠You can now start your very own "Weekend Side Hustle" right from the comfort of your sofa! [Click here to watch Jack Carter and Tom Busby give you the details]( (VIDEO) By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from Diversified Trading Institute and its partners ([privacy policy]( Miss our Live Weekly Market Review? Don't sweat it â the replay's ready! This week, we dove deep into critical price levels with our Market Overview. Then, the 36-Month MA revealed the market's true direction. Craving tactics? Our TradeTrend Singal Filtering session exposed hidden signals for smart trades. 'Share Your Favorite Symbol' was a goldmine of hot picks and insider tips. And the Ticker Q&A Roundtable? Pure genius for those tough trading questions! Busy schedule? Replays are up by Wednesday noon â get the knowledge on your own time. Join us next Tuesday for another power-packed market analysis! This week our topics were... - Market Overview - Mapping Out Key Levels
- Review 36-Month MA
- TradeTrend Signal Filtering
- Share Your Favorite Symbol!
- Ticker Q&A Roundtable [Watch the Replay Now]( SPONSOR [New Customers earn 5.25% APY* (variable)]( Store your money with Cash Reserve, a high-yield account built for peace of mind. New customers earn 5.25% variable APY*âthatâs 13x higher than the national savings rate. ** Plus, your moneyâs FDIC-insured up to $2Mâ at our program banks and no limits on withdrawals and transfers. **The national average savings account interest rate is reported by the FDIC (as of 5/15/23) as the average annual percentage yield (APY) for savings accounts with deposits under $100,000. [Sign Up Now!]( Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
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USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
Suite 169
Boise Idaho 83714
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