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WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW â
Positive Economy = Less Fed Easing? Hi Traders, We've got a mixed bag of economic news lately, the kind that has analysts scratching their heads and debating what it all means. On the one hand, things are looking surprisingly good â like, better than many were predicting. But, and here's where it gets tricky, that positive outlook could have a less-than-ideal side effect when it comes to interest rates. A Rosy Forecast's Downside Think of it like this: the Federal Reserve's main tool for keeping the economy in check is adjusting interest rates. When things are tough, they lower rates to encourage borrowing and spending. But when the economy's already going strong, they may hold off on those rate cuts. Why? Because rock-bottom rates can sometimes fuel too much spending, leading to inflation headaches. Right now, those economic analysts are feeling a lot more confident about our chances of avoiding that dreaded "R" word â recession. This newfound optimism could put a damper on the Fed's eagerness to aggressively cut rates in 2024, like some had been expecting. John Donaldson from the Haverford Trust Company didn't mince words when he said that the idea of the economy desperately needing ultra-low rates has been pretty much debunked. Ouch! The Shifting Numbers Let's dive into the specifics: - Economists are seeing a higher chance of a "soft landing" â 52% think we can avoid a recession while still slowing things down a bit (up from 47% in January).
- That recession risk in the next 12 months? Down to 32%, which is the lowest it's been since early 2022.
- This paints a picture of an economy holding its own, rather than spiraling. Of course, not everyone's feeling as optimistic. Some economists still predict a 60% chance of a recession and expect the Fed to slash rates to 3.6% by year's end. What the Fed is Watching The big question now is what the Fed will do. They're wrapping up their meeting this week, and while most folks aren't expecting a surprise shake-up in interest rates right now, there will be clues in their updated projections. Just last December, they seemed pretty certain about three rate cuts by the end of 2024. If even a couple of Fed officials have changed their tune, that projection could shrink. Inflation remains a major concern, especially with the year starting off with stubbornly high prices. Remember, other major central banks worldwide are also keeping those rates high right now to fight rising prices. The Fed isn't operating in a vacuum! Likely, we'll hear more solid chatter about the first potential rate cut around May or June. The Fed will be watching those inflation reports and jobs numbers like hawks before making any big moves. What Does This Mean for You? This is where it gets interesting for regular folks like us. Interest rates impact everything from mortgage rates to car loans to credit card debt. A positive economic outlook likely means the Fed won't be slashing rates anytime soon. While it's good news in the big picture, it might make some of those big purchases a little less enticing (or more expensive) for a while. - The Team at Altos Trading SPONSOR The rumor mill is swirling Some people are speculating that a guy my age must be using artificial intelligence to find [these daily trade ideas.]( But this legendary trader is NOT using artificial intelligence to find the ideas that he gives away for free inside of every issue of my ["Trade Of The Day" alerts.]( Fact is, heâs been digging up daily trade ideas for decades now. And the guy has won 10 trading championships before "A.I." was even a thing. But still... people love to gossipâ¦but he thinks it's time to put the rumors to rest: [Go here to get the next "Trade Of The Day" email at no cost and decide for yourself.]( Missed our Live Weekly Market Review? No worries â catch the instant replay! This week, we got down to the nitty-gritty with the Market Overview â mapping out those make-or-break price levels. Next, the 36-Month MA dropped some serious big-picture wisdom, showing where the market's truly headed. Need strategies? Our Price Action Indicator session uncovered hidden signals for smart moves. Share Your Favorite Symbol! was a treasure trove of hot picks and insider secrets. And that Ticker Q&A Roundtable? A masterclass in tackling your toughest trading questions! Couldn't join live? No sweat! Replays go live by Wednesday noon â soak up the insights on your own time. See you next Tuesday for another action-packed market breakdown! This week our topics were... - Market Overview - Mapping Out Key Levels
- Review 36-Month MA
- Price Action Indicator
- Share Your Favorite Symbol!
- Ticker Q&A Roundtable [Watch the Replay Now]( SPONSOR [New Customers earn 5.25% APY* (variable)]( Store your money with Cash Reserve, a high-yield account built for peace of mind. New customers earn 5.25% variable APY*âthatâs 13x higher than the national savings rate. ** Plus, your moneyâs FDIC-insured up to $2Mâ at our program banks and no limits on withdrawals and transfers. **The national average savings account interest rate is reported by the FDIC (as of 5/15/23) as the average annual percentage yield (APY) for savings accounts with deposits under $100,000. [Sign Up Now!]( Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714
USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street
Suite 169
Boise Idaho 83714
USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](