Market Moves You Need to See Stocks Up Again, S&P Within Striking Distance Of Their All-Time Highs
[Kevin Matras - EVP - Photo]
Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President Stocks Up Again, S&P Within Striking Distance Of Their All-Time Highs [Stocks Up Again, S&P Within Striking Distance Of Their All-Time Highs]Image: Bigstock Stocks closed higher again yesterday as the Q4 rally continues. Just 7 more trading days left in the year. YTD so far, the Dow is up 13.3%, the S&P is up 24.2%, and the Nasdaq is up 43.4%. Yesterday's Housing Starts and Permits report showed Starts at 1.560 million units (annualized) vs. last month's 1.359M and views for 1.360M. Permits came in at 1.460M vs. last month's 1.498M and estimates for 1.470M. Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence. This year's performance has been pretty spectacular, especially since most thought it highly unlikely at the start, given rising inflation, rising interest rates, and rampant talk of recession. But there were plenty of positives underpinning the economy, not the least of which was a strong labor market, personal incomes hovering near all-time highs, and strong consumer spending. We'll enter next year with all of those positives again, but this time we'll also have declining inflation, the likelihood of falling interest rates, and both the earnings outlook and GDP outlook calling for growth. Let me also point out too that the statistical odds were in the markets favor last year, and will be again next year. What I'm referring to is the 4-year Presidential cycle. History shows that year 3 (that's 2023), is the best year of all 4 years (since 1950, stocks have always gone up in the year after midterms, with an average 12-month forward return of 18.6%). But year 4 (2024), is the second-best year. Add up all of the aforementioned positives (and there are plenty more), then add in the favorable cyclical trends, and you have a market that is poised for another strong year. So make sure you're tasking full advantage of the year's end, and be sure to get positioned for what looks to be another great year. See you tomorrow, [Kevin Matras - Signature] Kevin Matras
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