Stocks End Higher, All Eyes On This Morning’s PCE Inflation Report

Market Moves You Need to See Stocks End Higher, All Eyes On This Morning’s PCE Inflation Report [Kevin Matras - EVP - Photo] Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President Stocks End Higher, All Eyes On This Morning’s PCE Inflation Report [Stocks End Higher, All Eyes On This Morning’s PCE Inflation Report]Image: Shutterstock Stocks closed higher yesterday with all of the major indexes in the plus column. Yesterday's third and final estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, in line with the previous estimate for the same. Although, the market has already moved on from Q2 and looking at Q3 and beyond. As for Q3, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, via their GDP Now forecast, is estimating Q3 at 4.9%. A sharp increase from last quarter. Weekly Jobless Claims rose by 2,000 to 204K, which is slightly higher than last month's 202K, but under the consensus for 211K. Pending Home Sales fell -7.1% m/m vs. last month's 0.5% change. The Index came in at 71.8 vs. last month's 77.6 and views for 77.3. Corporate Profits improved to -7.8% y/y vs. last month's pace of -9.4%. With inventory & consumption adjustments, it came in at -4.1% vs. last month's -6.2%. And the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -8 vs. last month's 0. Stocks are currently down for the week with one more day to go. But not by much. And one good day could turn things around and put stocks in the green for the week. The report that everybody is waiting for is this morning's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Last month's PCE report showed the headline number increasing by 3.3% y/y vs. the previous reading of 3.0%, while the core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 4.2% y/y vs. the previous month's 4.1%. Today's PCE report is expected to show a mixed bag with headline inflation up 0.5% m/m, and 3.5% y/y (which would be an increase from the last report's 3.3%). The core rate is expected to be up 0.2% m/m, but the y/y rate is expected to come it at 3.9%, which would be down from the last reported 4.2%. The report comes out at 8:30 AM ET. In addition to the PCE report, we'll also get the International Trade in Goods report, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, the Chicago PMI, and Consumer Sentiment. But the main event will the PCE inflation report. For those that are counting, today marks day 15 of the autoworkers strike. We now have just 2 more days for Congress to get a budget deal done by the end of the month to avoid a government shutdown. And there's only 1 more trading day left in this month. Whether today is up or down, or whether the week is up or down, the month will be down. But as I've been mentioning, the statistical odds of a rally in Q4 are pretty compelling. History shows if the market is up more than 10% thru July, and August is down, the remainder of the year is up 100% of the time with an average gain of 9.9% (median of 8.7%). The new week/month/quarter will soon be upon us. And with it comes high expectations for a strong rally. Next week can't get here soon enough. Best, [Kevin Matras - Signature] Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research [Alert: Buy These Ultimate Four Stocks Now]( There's still time to get in early. These aren't just 4 promising stocks. They were handpicked from hundreds of strong companies by Zacks' experts because they present the greatest upside for Q3: Stock #1: Little-known tech services company is showing NVIDIA-like growth. It already has 27,000 employees in 130 countries. Stock #2: Automotive company serves private startups, multinational titans, and the world's richest, most influential governments. Stock #3: Construction and mining firm rose from $55 million in revenue in 2021 to $1.66 billion in 2022. This June through September, they beat the S&P 500 6X over. 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