Plus 5 Just-Added Strong Buys Stocks End Mixed Ahead Of This Morning's CPI Inflation Report
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Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President Stocks End Mixed Ahead Of This Morning's CPI Inflation Report [Stocks End Mixed Ahead Of This Morning's CPI Inflation Report]Image: Bigstock Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow up modestly, the S&P unchanged, and the Nasdaq down modestly. Although, the small-cap Russell 2000 was up another 0.80%. All eyes will be on this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. The last CPI report showed headline inflation at 6.0% y/y vs. the previous month's 6.4%, while core inflation (ex-food & energy) was at 5.5% y/y vs. the previous month's 5.6%. Moreover, it was down significantly from last summer's high of 6.5%. The consensus for this morning's report is for headline inflation to be up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.4%, and the y/y rate to come in at 5.2% vs. last month's 6.0%. The core rate is expected to be up 0.4% m/m vs. last month's 0.5%, while the y/y rate is actually supposed to tick up to 5.6% vs. last month's 5.5%. Then tomorrow, we'll get yet another look at inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report. The last report showed headline inflation 4.6% y/y vs. the previous month's 6.0%, while the core rate was at 4.4% y/y vs. the previous month's 5.4%, and last year's summer high of 8.2%. But first things first, and that's this morning's CPI report. The steady trend of easing inflation has led many to believe that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end. The Fed also strongly hinted as much at their last FOMC meeting when they forecasted their terminal at 5.1%, which would mean just one more 25 basis point rate hike come May 3. Last weekâs employment report also underscored that narrative as well. It was a solid report, but down from February's outsized gains, which shows that the Fed's interest rate hikes do appear to have slowed inflation by slowing the economy. They are still a long way off from their target of 2%. But they are also well off of last year's peak inflation levels. Another report that shows inflation continuing to ease would further underscore the narrative that the Fed will soon call it quits in a few weeks. A hotter than expected report, however, would challenge that narrative since the Fed has repeatedly said they do not want to end their tightening prematurely. And that means having the confidence to believe inflation indeed will be heading back down to 2% over a reasonable period of time. In addition to this morning's CPI report (which comes out at 8:30 AM ET), we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, and the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. We'll also get the FOMC minutes from last month's Fed meeting. Even though Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, shared plenty at last month's post-FOMC meeting press conference, you can be sure traders will be scrutinizing the FOMC minutes to glean any other insight into what the Fed might do at their next meeting. The FOMC minutes come out at 2:00 PM ET. Should be a busy day. See you tomorrow, [Kevin Matras - Signature] Kevin Matras
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