End Of Year Rally And Multiyear Boom

[Zacks | Our Research. Your Success.] Weekday Wisdom [Kevin Matras - Editor] End Of Year Rally And Multiyear Boom By: Kevin Matras December 15, 2021 --------------------------------------------------------------- With Q4 GDP expected to accelerate into the end of the year, stocks are poised for a strong end-of-year rally. And with December typically being a strong month for stocks, it looks like there's a lot more upside to go. But the gains don't have to stop there, as we could be on the verge of a multiyear boom. Companies are reporting record earnings, banks are the strongest they've been in years, while household income has been on the rise. And with more jobs available than there are unemployed people to fill them, the jobs market is expected to stay hot for a long, long time. Then add in the trillions in economic stimulus already deployed, and another $1.2 trillion in infrastructure spending that will soon be injected into the economy (not to mention the possibility of trillions more in other domestic spending), and you've got a recipe for explosive economic growth and stock market gains. As Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year; "this boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023." New Highs Beget Higher Highs With stocks trading at or near their all-time highs, I know some people are wary of buying at these levels. For some, there is a reluctance to buy stocks after making new highs. I suppose they may feel like they missed the move, or that now stocks have more room to fall. But statistically, this is just not true. For one, the S&P, for example, has made 71 new highs this year alone. Can you imagine all of the money you would have left on the table if you were afraid to get into stocks making new highs? But second, and more importantly, studies have shown that stocks making new highs have a tendency of making even higher highs. In fact, using S&P price data going all the way back to the 1950s, it shows that stocks typically go up in the subsequent six months following new all-time highs. This means that stocks making new highs aren't at any greater risk of going down. Quite the contrary, there's a higher probability of stocks going up even further! More . . . [Get Your Free Copy of Finding #1 Stocks – A $49.95 Value]( One single idea changed Kevin Matras' life as an investor, enabling him to tap into the greatest force driving stock prices. In Finding #1 Stocks, Kevin reveals his top stock-picking secrets and strategies based on this powerful idea. Now you can claim a free copy of the 300-page hardcover book. Over the past five years (2016 through 2020), while the market climbed an impressive +103.9%, these strategies actually produced gains up to +130.5%, +381.1%, and even +580.6%.¹ You can take full advantage of them without attending a single class or seminar—in a lot less time than you think. Opportunity ends Saturday, December 18. [Claim Your Free Book »]( Climbing the Wall of Worry Inflation concerns continue to grip the market. But let's remember that some inflation is good. Not too much, but some. And one person's cost increase is another person's profit. It's also important to know that stocks typically perform well in inflationary environments. Of course, with inflation just hitting a 39-year high, we're in the 'too hot' realm already. But much of these inflationary pressures stem from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and worker shortages. The inflation readings are also being exacerbated by base effects (comparing current prices to last year's pandemic-subdued numbers). And the aforementioned problems should start seeing some relief, as more and more workers rejoin the labor force, and businesses chip away at the supply chain problems. Not only will this add to economic growth, but it will simultaneously help to ease inflation. In fact, the Fed has reduced inflation expectations for 2022, putting it at 2.6%. Let's also remember that inflation, in and of itself, doesn't tank economies. High interest rates do. But the prospect of 'high' interest rates is literally years and years down the road. Record Low Interest Rates Are Here To Stay For Some Time As you know, the Fed has injected trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus into the economy through their bond buying, various liquidity measures, and record low interest rates. And while they’ve already begun tapering their monthly asset purchases by -$15 billion per month in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities, they just said on Wednesday (12/15) they’ll double that pace to -$30 billion less, starting in January, suggesting they could fully unwind their quantitative easing in March. As for interest rates, it’s now expected the Fed could hike rates at least once in 2022, and maybe as many as three times. But even when they do begin to raise rates, they are essentially starting from zero. And it should be noted that over the last 50 years, there's never been a recession (aside from last year's pandemic-induced plunge), when the Fed Funds rate was under 4%. And at quarter-point moves (even half-point moves), it would take years to get to that level. In fact, officials are suggesting rates could hit 0.9% in 2022, 1.6% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024. A far cry from 4%. Bullish Economic Growth or History in the making In the meantime, the market has been focusing on the historic economic growth. With the Fed projecting their full-year GDP forecast at 5.9%, which would be the fastest growth rate in 37 years, it's easy to see why stocks have been going up. Then add in the unprecedented fiscal stimulus, coupled with falling virus counts, and the reopening of the economy, and we're about to see a record amount of pent-up economic demand meet a record amount of stimulus money. What we're seeing right now is history in the making. And historic times typically lead to historic price gains. So you need to make sure you're taking full advantage of it. And not squandering this opportunity with preventable mistakes. If you ever wished you could have traded historic times in the market differently, now is your chance. Because the next historic run-up could be just around the corner. And the time to get ready for it is now. Do What Works So how do you fully take advantage of this historic opportunity? By implementing tried and true methods that work to find the best stocks. For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 26 of the last 32 years with an average annual return of 25.4% per year? That's more than 2x the S&P. But when doing this year after year, that can add up to a lot more than just double the returns. And did you also know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There's a reason why they say that half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it's in. Because it's true! Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market. But you're not there yet, as those two items alone will only narrow down a field of 10,000 stocks to the top 100 or so. Way too many to trade at once. So the next step is to get that list down to the best 5-10 stocks that you can buy. Proven Profitable Strategies Picking the best stocks is a lot easier when there's a proven, profitable method to do it. And by concentrating on what has proven to work in the past, you'll have a better idea as to what your probability of success will be now and in the future. For example, if your strategy did nothing but lose money year after year, trade after trade, over and over again, there's no way you'd want to use that strategy to pick stocks with. Why? Because it's proven to pick bad stocks. On the other hand, if your strategy did great year after year, trade after trade, over and over again, you'd of course want to use that strategy to pick stocks with. Why? Because it's proven to pick winning stocks. Of course, this won't preclude you from ever having another losing trade. But if your stock picking strategy picks winners more often than losers, you can feel confident that your next trade will have a high probability of success. Here are a few of my favorite strategies that have regularly crushed the market year after year. New Highs: As mentioned earlier, studies have shown that stocks making new highs have a tendency of making even higher highs. And this strategy proves it. The alignment of positive price action and strong fundamentals creates all the necessary conditions to see these stocks soar to even greater heights. Over the last 21 years (2000 through 2020), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 45.5% vs. the S&P's 6.6%, which is nearly 7 x the market. Small-Cap Growth: Small-caps have historically outperformed the market time and time again. Often these are newer companies in the early part of their growth cycle, which is when they grow the fastest. This strategy combines the aggressive growth of small-caps with our special blend of growth and valuation metrics for explosive returns. Over the last 21 years (2000 through 2020), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 51.2%, beating the market by 7.6 x the returns. Filtered Zacks Rank 5: This strategy leverages the Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys, and adds two time-tested filters to narrow the list of stocks down to five high probability picks each week. Over the last 21 years (2000 through 2020), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 51.3%, which is 7.7 x the market. The best part about these strategies (aside from the returns) is that all of the testing and hard work has already been done. There's no guesswork involved. Just point and click and start getting into better stocks on your very next trade. Where To Start Now that the economic recovery is in full swing, there's a simple way to add a big performance advantage for your stock-picking success. It's called the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course. With this fun, interactive online program, you can master the Zacks Rank in your own home and at your own pace. You don't have to attend a single class or seminar. Zacks Method for Trading covers the investment ideas I just shared and guides you to better trading step by step, plus so much more. You'll quickly see how to get the most out of the proven system that has more than doubled the market for over three decades. Discover what kind of trader you are, how to find stocks with the highest probability of success, and how to trade them so you can consistently beat the market no matter where stock prices are headed. You'll get the formulas behind our top-performing strategies suited for a variety of different trading styles. The best of these strategies produced gains up to +130.5%, +381.1% and even +580.6% over the past five years (2016 through 2020).¹ The course will also help you create and test your own stock-picking strategies. Today is the perfect time to get in. I'm giving participants free hardbound copies of my book, Finding #1 Stocks, a $49.95 value. Its 300 pages unfold virtually every trading secret I've learned over the last 25 years to beat the market. Please note: Copies of the book are limited and your opportunity to get one free ends Saturday, December 18, unless we run out of books first. If you're interested, I encourage you to check this out now. [Find out more about Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course »]( Thanks and good trading, [Kevin Matras - signature] Kevin Zacks Executive VP Kevin Matras is responsible for all of our trading and investing services. He developed many of our most powerful market-beating strategies and directs the [Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course](. ¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all strategies developed by Zacks Investment Research. This free resource is being sent by [Zacks.com](). We look for investment resources and inform you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms of Service". Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. The Zacks #1 Rank Performance covers the period beginning on January 1, 1988 through November 1, 2021. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank #1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed above. 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