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Deal Or No Deal?
Stocks closed modestly lower yesterday and well off of their intraday lows.
It was as if the markets didn't really know what to do. The worst levels were seen in the morning. But then when President Trump spoke around noon, stocks started to head back up. While they were never able to make a full recovery, they did close near their best levels of the day.
It was interesting to hear President Trump speak of the 'beautiful letter' he received from President Xi. He also said he might be speaking to President Xi on the phone later.
This was all in advance of the continuing negotiations that were to resume later in the day. And ahead of a planned dinner with the U.S. trade delegation and China's trade delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He.
Technically, if no deal is reached, the additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods are set to begin at 12:01 AM on Friday morning. And more tariffs are being readied on an additional $320 billion. (Although, that would take several weeks before those could go into effect.)
Whether any of this happens, and on what timeline, will depend on whether there's a deal or not. Or at least if there's enough cooperation and understanding between both parties to continue working in good faith towards an agreement.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Clearly, both countries want a deal. And I'll bet they'll get one eventually, whether that's today or soon.
But the path towards such an important negotiation rarely goes in a straight line. And we've been seeing that play out all week.
All things considered, the markets have handled it pretty well. (Although, I may be speaking to soon.)
It could very well be because our economy is so strong right now. Plus, it's estimated that if there was no deal, and the new tariffs on the $200 billion kicked in, it would only shave two tenths to three tenths of a percent off of our GDP. Although, if the additional tariffs on the extra $320 billion kicked in, that could knock four tenths to a half percent off of our GDP. But again, with full year GDP expected to be around 3% or more, we're starting from a good place.
But all eyes and ears will be on the trade talks today.
Should be an exciting day.
Best,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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