Profit from the Pros
Three Up Days In A Row And Counting, Employment Numbers In Focus
Stocks put in another solid day yesterday with the Dow and the S&P both up over 1%, the Nasdaq up 1.75%, and the Small-Cap Russell 2000 Index up by more than 2%. That's now three up days in a row after bouncing off of the lows earlier this week. And we'll be going for day four today.
As mentioned before, the market was due for a bounce after the overdone pullback left stocks ridiculously oversold.
The pullback was really caused by two things.
1) Profit taking and position squaring ahead of the midterms. Nobody wanted to risk their profits or be overexposed going into the elections. That adjustment appears to be over. And with voting only a few trading days away, traders have been eager to snap up bargains.
2) The trade woes with China. The U.S. successfully negotiated new trade deals with Mexico and Canada. Same for South Korea. And they had productive negotiations with the EU and Japan. But the U.S. and China have been at a stalemate with tit for tat tariffs getting ratcheted up. That's weighed on prices. But word that they will talk at the G20 summit later in November is encouraging. And then President Trump's tweet yesterday that he had a "long and very good conversation" about trade with President Xi and that "discussions are moving along nicely" energized the market that a trade breakthrough could very well be made sooner rather than later.
And that sent the market soaring yesterday.
We also got a boost out of the Weekly Jobless Claims report that showed new claims fell by -2,000 to 214K. Analysts also noted that continuing claims and the 4-week average fell to new 45-year lows!
But the market will now turn its attention to this morning's Employment Situation Report. Expectations are for 181,000 new private sector jobs being created last month, and 9,000 new public sector jobs, for a combined headline number of 190,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay the same at 3.7%.
A good jobs number could easily pave the way for another up day.
Either way, the market looks much better after the last few days.
And there's a growing sense of optimism that stocks are poised for a much larger rebound.
Best,
Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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