Profit from the Pros
Can't Keep a Good Bull Down
This is Tracey Ryniec filling in for Steve. He'll be back on Tuesday.
The US economy grew less than expected in the second quarter coming in at just 1.2%. Combined with first quarter's reading of 0.8%, that makes the first six months of this year the weakest for the US economy since the start of 2011.
But the consumer was still spending like crazy in the second quarter. Household purchases surged 4.2%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2014 and one of the strongest quarters since the Great Recession.
With much of the economy fueled by consumer spending, that means that the US economy is still growing.
Never Bet Against the American Consumer
If the first half of 2016 was so gloomy, then why am I so bullish on stocks and the US economy?
Our homes are still our castles and Americans are willing to spend on them. The home decorating shows on cable TV are as popular as ever. Thanks to low mortgage rates, home sales, in many cities, are back to record highs, with record high prices. And people are buying cabinets, faucets, refrigerators, new windows, flooring and furniture.
It's all a stimulus for the economy.
The S&P 500 hit new highs to end July even though the GDP report wasn't stellar. Stocks like to climb a wall of worry and that worry is very apparent. I'm a contrarian investor, so all the bearishness about the new highs in the stock market is bullish to me.
The US economy isn't going into a recession right now. We saw a slowdown over the winter, which coincided with the lows in crude. Most companies in the last few weeks, outside of energy, have said that conditions, while still "challenging" have improved in the last few months.
Earnings are starting to show some improvement, albeit coming off of the lows of an earnings recession which has lasted the last 5 quarters.
But that's all this stock market needs to move higher. That's why I'm staying fully invested this summer even though it's not easy to be a contrarian.
Are you one of those who has been paralyzed by these uncertain market conditions? Kevin Matras talks about how you can trade with confidence, no matter what is going on on Wall Street, in [Applying Your Best Decisions on Every Trade.]
Best,
Tracey Ryniec
Stock Strategist at Zacks Investment Research , Zacks Investment Research
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