Vlad's Best Hedge: TLT, Here is why...

see the trade of the week inside... You receive this email, because you signed up to get email from YellowTunnel newsletter on 06/07/19.  If you no longer wish to receive any emails from YellowTunnel, please use the "Unsubscribe" link towards the bottom of this email. [Image] July 10th, 2022 | Issue 138   Hello Traders, This week, the market saw a nice rebound supported by positive economic reports as well as the latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which appeared eager to support the economy as best it could. Having just raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the Fed discussed another such rate hike in the upcoming July meeting, as well as the possibility of a 50-point hike in the September meeting. This, in turn, shifted market focus to Friday's major labor reports which included the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labor force for the month of June. Friday's June job market data showed employment has continued to expand at a strong rate, exceeding expectations and forecasts. With 250,000 new jobs expected in the month of June, the newest report showed a total of 372,000 jobs added. Weekly unemployment ticked up on Thursday, however, the monthly data was mostly unchanged. These positive results supported U.S. markets as all three major U.S. indices booked multi-day streaks and finished the week in the green. With unemployment near a 50-year low and the jobs market showing robust strength, market sentiment in the next few weeks will depend on the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings results. Next week, major banks, retailers, and airlines will headline earnings reports. Also dictating market direction will be the latest CPI data and Fed Beige Book, both scheduled for Wednesday the 13th.  Another key market indicator is the long-term U.S. bond yields. After turning slightly lower last week, the 2-year, the 10-year, and the 30-year note all turned higher this week with yields above 3%. Inflation remains at the forefront of investors' minds and most likely combatting it will take time; which raises the prospect of stagflation setting in and causing a recession that is large in some areas.      Source: Barchart.com To this point, I can’t emphasize how vital it is for blog readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to participate in our Live Trading Room and see how I am navigating us in and out of select trades. It’s FREE for all.  At Market open every Monday and Wednesday I highlight my best strategies and trading setups via the DISCORD server. It’s the future of bringing together a trading community’s total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to:  [(  I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specific stop-loss instructions with every trade. The buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain an element of control over risk with each trade. [Image] To great returns, [Image] Vlad Karpel YellowTunnel and Tradespoon Founder P.S. Please see below for access to the Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable presentation I recorded on Thursday, July 6th. [Click Here](  P.P.S. Join our Discord Community to participate in our Free Live Market Collapse Trading Room Sessions every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. [Click Here To Join](   TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK Traders looking for a strong hedge trade should highly consider the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a go-to ETF this month.  When considering TLT’s Seasonal Chart, there is a sizable gap between the annual seasonal line and the current year price. This, along with the symbol’s 10-day forecast, provides a great hedge opportunity. Coupling the predicted data and trends of TLT along with our current reading of the market, I believe there is an upside in this treasury ETF to be used as a strong hedge. [Click here to continue to this week’s Power Trade pick…](     (Advertisement) Earnings Season starts Wednesday, July 13th and the first to announce its earnings is JP Morgan Chase. Last earning season I traded JP Morgan Chase on April 13th and I had a 25.8%** return.  Let me repeat that, we had a 25.8%** return! That's a pretty good return after holding the position for only 4 days!  And that is not the first time I traded this JP Morgan Chase stock. - October 12 to 14, 2021 – 68.57% (2 days) - October 28 to 29, 2021 – 137.96% (1 day) - November 23 to 29, 2021 – 199.05% (6 days) - December 14 to January 4, 2022 – 51.52% (19 days) - Goes on... Be prepared: JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 13th.  This is my favorite time of year! Join me on the trading floor as we trade live. [You’re Invited: Click Here](     CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE      Source: Barchart.com As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 3% higher, near $388, and above the key long-term support – $380. The technology sector ($QQQ) also saw a weekly boom, up 5.3% over the last five trading sessions, at $293, impressively above its 50 DMA.  The $DXY traded lower on Friday, near the $107 level, but still managed a positive week. The $TLT also traded lower on Friday, near $112 level, and facing the key long-term resistance.  As previously mentioned, the ten-year yield closed higher at 3.09%, below the key short-term support - of 3.20%, while the 30-year note stood at 3.27%. The $VIX, having traded higher most of the week, retreated on Friday toward the $25 level.  Taking a closer look at the statistics, I'd be a seller into the rally and have a NEUTRAL portfolio right now. The market is presently oversold and in the process of bottoming.  [Click here to read more…](   SECTOR SPOTLIGHT [Alternate text]( With the latest labor data supporting markets and focus now turning towards the upcoming earnings season, I am looking towards a familiar sector to provide a timely hedge. It is my opinion that the market, in the short term, is overbought but heading higher in the long term.  Taking into consideration the previously discussed support and resistance levels for the SPY, I am seeing $TLT, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, as a perfect hedge.  The ETF looks to track investment results of U.S. Treasury Bonds, with remaining maturity greater than twenty years. TLT is currently comprised of 33 holdings that fit this standard and stands at 3.31% average yield to maturity. [Click here to review the TOP HOLDINGS and to continue reading…]( Market Collapse LIVE Trading Room Sessions  Join Our Discord Community Every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST.  [Click Here To Join](   NOTE: We encourage all subscribers [to view the instructional videos]( on how to best use your membership and invite our members to participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived for your convenience so that they can to be viewed at a later time.   TRADING CONCEPTS - VIDEO Market Analysis To effectively trade in today's rapidly moving equity markets, active day traders and swing traders must stay ahead of market changes due to inflation, global uncertainty, politics, as well as innovations and technological changes used by hedge fund traders and proprietary trading firms. With traders like you in mind, we designed this intensive roundtable where you will deepen your understanding of all aspects of stock and options trading in today’s changing market. [Click here to watch the video...](   DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room, multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel’s performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to today. *Win rate percentage reflects the average that Yellow Tunnel’s software helped me identify a profitable investment strategy.** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. This email was sent to {EMAIL} by info@yellowtunnel.com. Questions or inquiries regarding the website and/or service may be submitted via email to i[nfo@yellowtunnel.com](mailto:Info@Yellowtunnel.com?subject=Questions%20or%20Inquires%20PTM%20Blog). 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