When Will Commuting Life Return To Normal?

We all want to return to Midtown [View this email in your browser]( 5 Questions About Mass Transit To Kick Off 2021 Plus: Multiple women have been assaulted at the Morgan Avenue L train stop. Car thefts are up because people leave electronic key fobs in their cupholders. And New Yorkers with nowhere to travel still came out to marvel at the new Moynihan Train Hall. By James Ramsay [a young man boards a Q train on Christmas Eve] Mark Lennihan/AP "New Year, Same Chaos" seems to be the theme of January 2021. But with a vaccine in circulation, a transfer of power in Washington coming up (🤞), and millions of former commuters surely eager for the [Midtownaissance]( to resume, we asked transportation reporter Stephen Nessen to answer five questions about what's to come this year. Starting with: When are things going to be back to normal? According to the consultants: 2024. The MTA hired a team from McKinsey to analyze its finances and data, and they projected that the "new normal" would be ridership at 90% pre-pandemic levels by 2024, under a best case scenario. Worst case would be 80%. Remember, before the pandemic, the MTA was seeing record-breaking ridership figures, with 8 million subway and bus riders a day. Now, many people have left the city, are working from home, turned to cycling, or bought cars. That demand for public transportation is expected to remain low for some time. Having a subway that runs 24/7 seems crucial for getting essential workers to their jobs, and it's also central to the city’s identity. Is there a sense of when overnight service will resume? MTA leadership insists overnight service should remain shut down during the pandemic so it can thoroughly disinfect train cars and stations. But this overnight shutdown began at the end of March, and much of what we know about how the virus is transmitted has changed. For example, scientists believe it’s mainly airborne transmission, which is why masks are so important. Yet, the MTA says it needs to use the overnight shutdown for deep cleaning. Riders do like the clean trains, though. And there are only about 150,000 riders estimated to use the system overnight. The MTA says its enhanced bus service is enough to meet the demand. So, no date in sight for a return of 24/7 subway service, but the MTA says when it’s safe, it will come back. The MTA spent much of 2020 begging for federal assistance. Assuming President-elect Joe Biden and a Democratic majority in Congress do take office this year, is there a sense of what the federal government would provide, and how quickly? The speed isn’t clear, but the MTA said it'll need an additional $12 billion over the next three years to make up for revenue shortfalls. It was a real nail-biter to see whether the MTA would get enough money this year to avoid major service and job cuts, but in the end, [Congress did come through with $4.5 billion](. The agency is also hoping a Biden administration will immediately issue guidance on an environmental review [so congestion pricing can finally move forward](. Even still, that’s not expected to be up and running for at least another year. And the [$51.5 billion capital plan]( that Andy Byford helped create — which has been put on hold during the pandemic — could get a jump start with federal grants from an administration more favorable to mass transit. So when riders do return, they'll find a very different, modern, and efficient system. This is also a big election year at the city level, with the next mayor likely to be chosen in the Democratic primary in June. What are you looking for from the candidates, as it pertains to transit? New York has lagged behind many other cities in the U.S. and world when it comes to responding to the way people get around during a pandemic. Paris, for example, immediately rolled out 400 miles of temporary bike lanes, and [is planning to make every inch of it accessible by bike by 2024](. Our city put in [40 miles of temporary bike lanes]( and has no plans at the moment to scale up dramatically, despite the number of cyclists doubling at times. So, a bike-friendly mayor right now would go a long way to responding to how New Yorkers use the streets. [a masked-up cyclist comes off the Manhattan Bridge] John Minchillo/AP Additionally, will the mayor be focused on changing how street space is used, and learning from the success of open streets and outdoor dining during the pandemic? To do so will mean taking a tough stand on placard abuse, and maybe [the end of free street parking](. On a personal level, is there anything you learned in 2020 that changed the way you’ll think about commuting going forward? Because New York City was the first major city hit by the pandemic, and we all know how crowded the subways can be, there was a real fear that subways and public transportation were where the virus was being spread. And sure, when people aren’t wearing masks, that can be unsafe. But since March, study after study has shown that as long as people wear masks, public transit is safe and is not how COVID-19 — or other coronaviruses — has been spread around the world. The MTA says fresh air is exchanged on subways every two-and-a-half to three-and-a-half minutes, "exceeding CDC standards for certain medical facilities and far surpassing standards for classrooms and restaurants." So, that feels like a relief, and confirmation that we don’t need to flee to the suburbs to be safe. 'Long Overdue': Visitors Marvel At New Moynihan Train Hall [a boy gazes at the ceiling of the new Moynihan Train Hall at Penn Station] Stephen Nessen/Gothamist "It gives us something to be proud of and excited for when you’re coming into Penn Station, and that’s something that’s been missing for a long time," said Tim Mulligan, an Upper West Sider who brought his toddler to see the newly opened Moynihan Train Hall. "I honestly dread coming to Penn Station, but now I’m looking forward to having a reason to take the train so I can experience it for real." With Amtrak and LIRR ridership still down well below their pre-pandemic figures, Moynihan — which increased Penn Station's size by 50% — was noticeably empty when it opened last Friday. 6-year-old Wolf from Chelsea noticed. "The one thing is, it’s very very big, and it doesn’t get crowded like the small station, Penn Station," said Wolf. [Here's how other New Yorkers reacted to the grand opening of Moynihan Train Hall](. Here's What Else Is Happening Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said she's resigning next Monday, citing the storming of the Capitol by the president's supporters. "As I’m sure is the case with many of you, it has deeply troubled me in a way that I simply cannot set aside," Chao said of yesterday's riot. Chao, who's [married to Sen. Mitch McConnell]( is leaving with just 13 days to go in President Donald Trump's term. ([Axios]( At least five women have been assaulted at the Morgan Avenue L train station since November. The police arrested a man suspected of punching at least five women at the Morgan stop in East Williamsburg. The separate assaults started in November, with the suspect approaching from the woman from behind before attacking. The authorities made an arrest after a video of a woman being assaulted at a Bushwick smoke shop was posted on social media. ([Gothamist]( The installation of a bus-only lane in Flushing, Queens can continue after a judge lifted a temporary restraining order on the project. A group of local businesses had sued to block the busway, which they feared would make it harder for customers to park. But a judge dismissed the suit this week, saying the claims were speculative. The Department of Transportation hasn't said when the 0.3 mile busway on Main Street will be finished. ([Gothamist]( The NYPD is moving its tow pound off of Pier 76 on the west side of Manhattan. The city said it'll get the tow pound off the pier by the end of January, after the state threatened major fines for blocking what's supposed to be a mix of parkland and commercial space. The NYPD didn't say where it's moving the cars currently impounded, though there are reports that the vehicles will be kept in the Hell's Kitchen area. ([Gothamist]( Gov. Phil Murphy said Transportation Secretary nominee Pete Buttigieg is "aware" that the federal government needs to provide an update on the tunnel project under the Hudson. Murphy spoke with Buttigieg by phone Monday night and offered to give the former South Bend mayor a tour of the tunnels in person, along with Sen. Chuck Schumer. The federal government is currently three years late in weighing in on an environmental review for the Gateway project, which would repair the two tunnels into Penn Station. ([NorthJersey.com]( Car thefts are on the rise in New York City and elsewhere because people keep leaving their electronic key fobs in their cupholders. Drivers whose cars have keyless, start-button ignitions are forgetting to bring their key fobs with them when they exit their cars. Sometimes, simply being near the car (like if you run into the bodega) allows someone else to open the door, start the engine, and drive off. New York City police said car thefts jumped to 6,858 in 2020, up from 3,988 in 2019. ([The New York Times]( The Long Island Rail Road said it's still on pace to add a third track to the Main Line in 2022. The $2.6 billion project is intended to increase capacity between Floral Park and Hicksville on a route that normally carries 40% of the LIRR's weekday passengers. Despite a pause on billions of dollars in intended spending, the LIRR said the track addition is going forward because the project started before the pandemic — and because managers can supervise construction via on-site GoPro cameras. ([The Wall Street Journal]( [an illustration of Beethoven in a conductor's car] For whatever reason you may be seeking a relaxing soundtrack today, our friends at WQXR have supplied one. [Stream it for free on Spotify](. Weekend Service Changes: Night of January 8th – Early Morning on January 11th This is a partial list of major service disruptions scheduled for the weekend. For a complete list of the MTA's Weekender updates, [check here](. Note: The entire subway system is closed each night from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. until further notice. trains will not run between 137 St and 242 St. Wakefield-bound trains and Harlem-bound trains will skip Eastern Pkwy, Grand Army Plaza, and Bergen St. Woodlawn-bound trains will skip Eastern Pkwy, Grand Army Plaza, and Bergen St. Ozone Park/Far Rockaway-bound trains and Euclid Av-bound trains will skip 163 St, 155 St and 135 St. trains will not run between Queensboro Plaza and 34 St-Hudson Yards. trains will not run between Church Av and Coney Island-Stillwell Av. [Check here]( for complete details about the Long Island Rail Road. For NJ Transit, [check here]( for the latest service advisories. James Ramsay spends every day in Midtown in his heart. (Photo by Amy Pearl) Support WNYC + Gothamist Make a donation to support local, independent journalism. 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