Is Biden's Plan Just To Wait This Out?

Plus: In NJ primary, a loss for the Democratic party machine [View this email in your browser]( [Politics Brief from WNYC + Gothamist] [Keep friends and family informed. Forward the Politics Brief.]( The Biden Strategy: Just Wait This Out? By [James Ramsay]( [Joe Biden removes his face mask to give a speech in front of an American flag] Patrick Semansky/AP With this year's drawn-out primary process [nearly over]( the United States appears fully consumed by a deadly pandemic, economic instability, and massive protests against police brutality and racial injustice. But lurking in the background, less than four months away, is a presidential election. And the two main choices will be the Republican incumbent presiding over all this, and a Democrat who was central to crafting the 1994 crime bill and still [stands accused]( of raping a former staff member. "We’re in a moment marked by transformational thinking — it would seem," said David Remnick on the most recent episode of The New Yorker Radio Hour. "And the standard bearer of this is someone who's about as moderate as moderate can be." In other words, how did 2020 give us former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee? Eric Lach, who has been covering the Biden campaign for The New Yorker, said that during a primary marked by bold policy debates, Biden was unique in arguing that President Donald Trump was an extraordinary threat, and the first priority needed to be getting him out of office. From the South Carolina primary onward, that proved to be a winning pitch. "In some ways that was a harder test, in terms of rallying his party, than maybe what he'll face as a policy or issue discussion in the general election," Lach said. Currently, Biden is holding [a steady 10-point lead]( in the general election polls, and former President Barack Obama is [telling him]( to sit back, keep his speeches (and tweets) brief, and let the election play out as a referendum on Trump and the economy. "If you were drawing up your ideal candidate, it would not be someone who has the history he has with the 1994 crime bill," said The New Yorker's Jelani Cobb. "But Biden has other strengths that he’s showcased. On the 4th of July, by my count, he used the term 'systemic racism' three times in a very direct and passionate statement about what's been going on." In the next four months, whether Biden succeeds at discussing systemic racism or [fails to use "woke" correctly]( his messaging could well remain secondary to the fact that he's the guy running against Trump. "The biggest asset Joe Biden has," said Cobb, "is that any gaffe he makes will shortly be overshadowed by something really outrageous — or borderline insane — that comes from the White House five minutes after that." [Hear Remnick, Cobb, Lach, and other New Yorker]( members discuss the state of the Biden campaign](. November Showdown Is Set For South Jersey Swing District Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a retired dentist and first-term House member who joined the Republican Party six months ago, won the 2nd District's GOP nomination in last Tuesday's primary. On the Democratic side, former teacher and first-time electoral candidate Amy Kennedy crushed her main primary opponent, party-backed political science professor Brigid Harrison. That means the November general election will not include a loyal representative of the powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. Van Drew, a former machine candidate, left the party last December and pledged his "[undying support]( to President Trump. Kennedy, who had the backing of progressive groups — and the name recognition of the political dynasty she married into — openly attacked the party machine during her primary campaign. Despite the machine's [outsized role]( in state politics, South Jersey itself isn't a Democratic stronghold. The 2nd Congressional District, which spans from the Delaware River to Atlantic City, leans Republican, [according to Politico](. Trump won the district in 2016 by five points. George Norcross III, the unelected power broker who leads South Jersey Democrats, congratulated Kennedy last week, and said he plans to support her in November. But the general election in many ways presents a lose-lose scenario for Norcross and his biggest legislative ally, State Senate President Steve Sweeney. The 2nd District could stay in Republican hands under Van Drew. Or, Kennedy — who was also backed by Gov. Phil Murphy, a Norcross and Sweeney rival — could establish herself as a Democratic force with no need for the party machine. ([Gothamist]( No New York Republican Has Won Statewide Office Since 2002. Could Elise Stefanik Break That Streak? Rep. Elise Stefanik, the Republican House member who represents the area around Adirondack Park, became the youngest woman ever to serve in Congress when she was first elected in 2014 at the age of 30. Now 36, Stefanik has raised her profile within her party to the point where she's out-fundraising every other Republican in the state. This year, she's likely to raise $10 million for her reelection bid, which GOP insiders point to as evidence that she could run for statewide office at some point soon. During the House Intelligence Committee's impeachment hearings last year, in which Stefanik took a leading role [defending the president]( Trump declared her "a new Republican star." That turn in the spotlight helped her raise $3 million in one quarter. Tedra Cobb, the Democrat challenging Stefanik this November, also raised millions from Democrats across the country because of the attention drawn by Stefanik during the impeachment hearings. But according to the [Cook Political Report]( the 21st Congressional District is all but certain to stay in Republican control. It's less certain that Stefanik, an [environmentally-conscious]( but still [pro-Trump]( Republican, would have enough bipartisan appeal to be the first New York Republican since Gov. George Pataki to win a statewide election. But if she did run for governor someday, she'd likely have enough money to give it a solid shot. ([The Wall Street Journal]( Temporary Presidential Immunity Is Not A Thing [a lone protester stands outside the Supreme Court holding a "follow the money" poster] Andrew Harnik/AP The Supreme Court last week issued decisions in two cases pertaining to President Trump's tax returns. In the first case, the court ruled that Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance's criminal investigation into Trump's business dealings — including his hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels — can go forward. That is, contrary to the Trump team's argument, Trump isn't immune to being investigated just because he's a sitting president. In the second case, which concerned congressional subpoenas to the president's [accounting firm]( the court ruled that Congress can have oversight over the president, but only if their inquiries pass a four-point test. That case was sent back to the lower courts. NYU law professor Melissa Murray told the Trump, Inc. podcast that with 7-2 opinions in both cases, the Supreme Court did itself a favor. "The real winner here is Chief Justice John Roberts, who's managed to keep this court out of the political fray," said Murray. "He has effectively, with both of these decisions, steered the court through a really treacherous course that could have been a polarizing mess for the court to wade into, and he's done it in advance of what will likely be one of the most polarizing elections of the modern age." [HEAR THE FULL EPISODE]( [the logo for Brian Lehrer's politics podcast] Why Trump's Identity Politics Is Backfiring Now President Trump is still leaning on the racist rhetoric that helped him win in 2016. This time, it's not working. What's different? Support WNYC + Gothamist Make a donation to support local, independent journalism. Your contributions are our largest source of funding and pays for essential election coverage and more. [Donate]( Copyright © 2020 New York Public Radio, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: New York Public Radio 160 Varick Street New York, NY 10013 [unsubscribe]( [update preferences]( [privacy policy](