IOUSA

For about 18 months we flitted about several continents, including Europe and Asia, with a film crew, a director, a couple of producers, a sound guy, video editors and a small battery of lawyers… iPhones had not yet hit the market, so documentaries filmed on hand-held phones weren’t a thing… like I said, it was expensive. In order to get (ahem) out of the hole, I agreed to sell the film to billionaire Pete Peterson. Pete had been sponsoring the Fiscal Wake Up Tour for a number of years and wanted to use the film to help establish the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, whose mission includes educating anyone who’ll listen that “the national debt threatens economic growth and opportunities for future generations.” ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ November 21, 2023 |  [View Online]( |  [Sign Up]( I.O.U.S.A. “You're only as good as your last haircut.” — Fran Lebowitz Dear , In the Mid-aughts we co-wrote and produced a documentary about the diminishing financial condition of the United States. It was called I.O.U.S.A. and it was widely acclaimed, accepted for competition at the Sundance Film Festival and short-listed for an Academy Award. It was also a very expensive education in the entertainment business. The film followed David Walker, then US Comptroller General—the nation’s top accountant—around on what was called “The Fiscal Wake Up Tour”; an attempt to enlighten folks on four great deficits the nation was facing at the time. The deficits were “trade,” “savings,” “budget,” and the big one, “leadership.” CONTINUED BELOW... POWERED BY REPUBLICAN METAL COMPANY Conflict In Israel Sends Gold Soaring 👉 [Here's How To Get Your Share]( The latest flare-up between Israel and Palestinian militants has sent gold prices surging. Why? Geopolitical crises breed uncertainty – and gold thrives on uncertainty. At Republican Metals, we have made it our mission to inform fellow Patriots about a little-known "Cash Free Loophole" that allows you to move a your retirement savings into physical gold. Learn why NOW is the time for gold, and how you can execute this "Cash-Free Loophole" to protect and grow your wealth. [Claim your free Gold Investment Guide from Republican Metals now.]( CONTINUED... For about 18 months we flitted about several continents, including Europe and Asia, with a film crew, a director, a couple of producers, a sound guy, video editors and a small battery of lawyers… iPhones had not yet hit the market, so documentaries filmed on hand-held phones weren’t a thing… like I said, it was expensive. In order to get (ahem) out of the hole, I agreed to sell the film to billionaire Pete Peterson. Pete had been sponsoring the Fiscal Wake Up Tour for a number of years and wanted to use the film to help establish the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, whose mission includes educating anyone who’ll listen that “the national debt threatens economic growth and opportunities for future generations.” Selling the film turned out to be a good option. As in all business, you either make a profit, eat the loss or make deals to get your ass out of a sling. Anyone who studies governments knows business rules don’t apply to public policy. All of it is expensive. None of it is paid for. Except for with money you pay in taxes or when the government borrows in the bond markets. Hence, our recent fascination with [the most aggressive sell off in Treasury notes since 1787](. If you’ve followed along, the bond market has—up until the bond vigilantes stepped in—been in a free fall. The Fed’s campaign to fight inflation by raising interest rates was not only giving banks like Silicon Valley and First Republic a rash, but also calling into question the government's own ability to keep up with over $1 trillion in anticipated interest payments on the national debt. One of the refrains we continually heard while interviewing subjects for I.O.U.S.A.—Warren Buffett, chief among them—was that the U.S. economy is resilient enough that “we’ll be able to ‘grow our way out’ of the debt problem.” While we were filming, some 17 years ago now, the debt had yet to reach $9 trillion. Today it’s barrelling toward $34 trillion. Not too many people talk about growing our way out of a crisis anymore. At least, not intentionally… and certainly not out loud. Last week, the new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson pushed through a stop gap bill “extending” the actual debate over the budget, financing of government operations and military aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, until some time in early 2024. What the heck, why not? We’re all used to it. We all expected it. Why not “extend and pretend” one more time so Congress could go home for Thanksgiving like everyone else? Trouble is, as we’ve tried to demonstrate, like the deficit and debt itself, “inflation” is a prickly beast and will not likely go away any year soon. Nor is the economy likely to continue growing into next year with the weight of higher prices and higher interest rates hanging around the necks of consumers.  “PiMCO released research on this same topic,” writes reader Kent, who is also a wealth manager in Napa, California. “They showed that although the Fed has been able to pull off the occasional ‘soft landing’ they have never done so in an early inflationary environment with such a rapid series of rate hikes. In short, their odds team was booking zero percent chance. Add to that the fact that despite the so-called ‘government numbers,’ nothing is getting cheaper! “I live in the altered state of California and trust me, as a wealth manager for 35 years this is the most I have ever fielded calls on monthly budgets and how people are no longer making it on what they have been comfortable living on for some time. “The real question remains: just how far can ‘the can’ be kicked down the road?”  “I am unaware of any theory of economics that centrally accounts for growth,” writes Robert from Houston in a similar vein. “The least-bad is Austrian, where savings lead to capital formation which leads to investment and growth of some sort to pay it off. Ponzi schemes require growth and collapse without it. CONTINUED BELOW... POWERED BY DEMISE OF THE DOLLAR CONTINUED... “‘Extend-and-pretend’ can only cover gaps in growth if enough is generated later. Otherwise, Detroit, Haiti, Venezuela and Argentina will result.” Following the announcement the stop-gap measure was signed into law, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation published its Fiscal Confidence Index which mimics the “consumer confidence” index and was designed to measure your average Joe’s confidence in the government’s ability to manage its own budget. The reading came in at 37, with 100 being neutral. That’s the second lowest reading since the index began; second only to the 35 the survey revealed in May during the “debt ceiling” debate that got the former Speaker Kevin McCarthy fired.  History is not kind to societies who can’t get their fiscal houses in order. “In reality, here in the United States” reader Kent from Napa continues, “we should have already had a cataclysmic event… but thanks to the arrogance of having the world reserve currency, the answer to this point has been, ‘as long as we want’. That game has changed too so this advisor is climbing into the bunker with his and his client’s assets.” So it goes, Addison Wiggin The Wiggin Sessions P.S. It is possible with Sunday’s run-off election in Argentina “extend and pretend” has met a foe… some kind of naturally occurring political end of the road. The ‘libertarian economist’ Javier Melei won the presidential election there.  “We'll start doing things that history has shown works,” Melei assured an assembled crowd following the announcement, “and within 35 years, we'll return to being a world power.” Heh. He finished with his signature slogan: “Long live freedom, dammit!” We weren’t there, but have read everything under the sun about the guy… what a nutjob he is, mostly. And that he carried a chainsaw around to campaign stops to give some indication what he is going to do to the central government. “When we want to know what’s happening here in Argentina, we just stick our head outside our apartment window,” writes Joel Bowman at [Bonner Private Research](. He lives in Buenos Aires. Joel continues: When things are going poorly – high inflation, unpopular public policies, losing football teams, etc. – the locals bang their pots and pans, creating a deafening “cacerolazo” protest that rings out around the city. When things are going well – World Cup victories, the end of pandemic lockdowns, resounding defeats for the ruling Peronist “caste” – they take to their balconies to sing and celebrate. The cheering started shortly after 8 o’clock last night. That was how we found out who had won the presidential election. “Vamos Milei!” hooted the crowd across the way, proclaiming victory for the self-described anarcho-capitalist candidate. “Vamoooooooos Argentina!!!” Cars honked their horns up and down the street, the way they do when one or another football team scores a “goooooooool!” Folks crowded the plazas and pizzerias, cheering and hugging each other. For their part, the mainstream press dutifully carries the election story. Milei is a “Trump sympathizer” they say... a “climate denier”... a “conspiracy theorist.” Conveniently, they leave out the fact he got 56% of the popular vote. POWERED BY MAGNIFY Top 5 AI Stocks to Buy for 2023 The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is already here. And it's about to change everything we know about everything. According to Grand View Research, the global AI boom could grow from about $137 billion in 2022 to more than $1.81 trillion by 2030. 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