Animal Spirits

“Hey, you cats goin’ to the golden Rule Symposium? Have a blast!” writes reader John B. Reader Susan J adds: “Looked at the Agenda. The Rule Symposium 2023 is going to be an exciting time! And, I’m especially pleased that all my heroes, plus one heroine, are among the featured speakers!” ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ July 21, 2023 |  [View Online]( |  [Sign Up]( Animal Spirits “Insight is not a lightbulb that goes off inside our heads. It is a flickering candle that can easily be snuffed out.” —Malcolm Gladwell Dear [Reader], “Your recounting of the recent [flight experience]( reminded me of the old days,” writes reader Don B, a far-off look in his eye. “I worked for the airlines in the ‘70s and times were obviously different. Most of our pilots were Air Force and had flown both military and Air America flights during Vietnam." POWERED BY THE 2023 RULE SYMPOSIUM CONTINUED... One night we were fogged in at IAH,” he recounts: …the last flight out was able to take off, but Ops was holding the last flight in. Then all of a sudden, the Ops Desk cheered. Later, the pilot told us: I knew that the last flight out was an air freighter, flight 55 and it was coming up soon. I watched and the jet blasted washed away the fog and the runway was visible. I pancake landed the 707 and we were in Houston. Probably couldn’t do it that way today. A hard landing indeed, and one for the books. “I had three uncles that were pilots during WWII,” another reader, David N, adds: Two were instructors because they were too old for combat duty. Both continued as instructors after the war. I took flying lessons from one of them. A cardinal rule he kept throwing at me was about pilots getting into trouble while in the air due to weather. He would state that if you are paying attention to your surroundings you should be able to spot thunderstorms well in advance and either find a place to land or fly around it. I think the foregoing could serve as a good analogy for someone looking to invest in the markets i.e., be aware of your surroundings, and when ‘weather’ threatens, find a place to land or fly around it. We find it interesting that the flight analogy serves so well to describe the economy and its forecasts (and failures). There is something about the ability to let go that is required in flight and in economics; without that moment of intuition, that leap of faith, flight is not possible. Like the pilot who chooses to be aware of their surroundings rather than rely on the radar to predict stormy weather, the economist might find that how people are actually acting around us says more about the state of the economy of things than more quantitative means of measurement. POWERED BY THUNDERCLAP RESEARCH Passive income no matter which way the market moves Plenty of leading money managers say we're on the verge of a sudden and dramatic decline. Others say the market could go up 50%, or even 100% or more from here before it tops out. So do you get out now, and potentially miss out on the biggest gains still to come? Today, we're here to tell you that there's a much better option… One that gives you less risk, more potential profits, and greater peace of mind. To make it easy for you to get started, we put together a list of our [Top 5 Dividend Stocks Paying 10%+ Yields]( you probably never heard of. [You can download it right here right away.]( CONTINUED... Keynes called this nuance the “animal spirit.” And despite his distinct and lasting belief in the anthropocentricity of markets and his doctrine of market manipulation and stimulation, he admitted regularly that human action is subject to unpredictable, often strange proclivities.  In his 1936 tome The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Keynes writes with fervor: Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities. Rational thought is often looked down upon in classical economic thought. Past economists, back to Adam Smith, have almost ignored the role of the irrational in economic decisions, instead explaining action through the lens of “rational self-interest.” And yet, conventional financial analysis, and what we might call textbook economics, confines itself only to rational, quantifiable facts when even our markets are called bulls and bears. Lest we forget that this is a beast we are dealing with. We wrote about “[The Great Complacency]( a few days ago. We might revisit it again, adding the claim: Having been to Miami, New York, Memphis, Pittsburgh (LA and Utah, Charleston SC), people are ubiquitously optimistic… Austin, Chicago, Tampa. There is clearly a massive economic dislocation occurring between what we see in the news and what we feel in our cities and in our towns. Before we go, Might we conduct our own survey: How are we feeling about the current state of affairs? Please reply here, if you feel so inclined. Follow your own bliss, Addison Wiggin The Wiggin Sessions P.S. “Hey, you cats goin’ to the golden Rule Symposium? Have a blast!” writes reader John B. Reader Susan J adds: “Looked at the Agenda. The Rule Symposium 2023 is going to be an exciting time! And, I’m especially pleased that all my heroes, plus one heroine, are among the featured speakers!” Take a peek at the 2023 Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, FL [here](. POWERED BY VAULT METAL Must Act Now: The Fed's Rate Hikes, Bank Failures, Could Cause Next Major Recession! You can kiss your future double digit stock returns goodbye! We are facing some of the most terrifying financial times since 2008. It's time to take action and rebalance your portfolio with the asset that can never go to zero! Physical GOLD and Silver! One of the best risk hedge investments in history has been Gold and Silver and the world's central banks are "gobbling it up," in record amounts! Now you too can protect your wealth with physical precious metals. [Download our free Gold Investment Guide.]( The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to The Wiggn Sessions delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( For any further comments or concerns please email us at feedback@wigginsessions.com. If you are having trouble receiving your The Wiggin Sessions subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting The Wiggin Sessions.]( © 2023 The Wiggin Sessions 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security they personally recommend to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Consillience, LLC, Saint Paul Street, 808, Baltimore, Maryland 21202, United States