Japan's banks lent more, with less regard for quality of the borrower, than anyone elseâs. In doing so they helped inflate the bubble economy to grotesque proportions.
â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â June 23, 2023 |  [View Online]( |  [Sign Up]( Whence, The Economic Miracle? âThey say miracles are past; and we have our philosophical persons, to make modern and familiar, things supernatural and causeless. Hence is it that we make trifles of terrors, ensconcing ourselves into seeming knowledge, when we should submit ourselves to an unknown fear.â âWilliam Shakespeare The Japanese economy is built different. As of May 19, the inflation rate year over year over there was 3.5%. Compare that number to the American inflation rate of 4.05% in May, 4.93% in April month and 8.58% last year. 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(Source: Refinitiv Comparable Economics) Youâd think, by the current logic of the Powell Fed, that Japanâs low inflation means they have kept consistently high interest rates. In fact, Japan has a history of negative interest rates for the last three decadesâand still sees incredibly low inflation compared to the rest of the world. Their unique economic conundrumâso different from the one the American experiment facesâis demographic primarily. For one, we know that Japanese consumers (and companies) are âpersistent savers.â Their approach to saving has been commodified for Western minds in books on âthe Kakeibo method,â a Japanese budgeting system that teaches you how to manually track your spending through journaling and other reflective practices to help reign in your own spending. Kakeibo is, letâs just say, different from your average American, âletâs take out a loan, buy a boat and dock in Oahu for the summerâ mentality. In Japan more than one in four people are 65 or over. That is 28.7% of the population, making up 36.17 millionânearly the entire population of Poland! Thatâs a sizable chunk of sushi eaters. Remember Japanâs âEconomic Miracleâ during the 1980s? In short, after a record period of economic growth after the Second World War, Japan rapidly became the world's second-largest economy. But population growth began to stagnate. The workforce ceased to expand. By the 1990s, the Japanese economy had hit a wall. Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan, attempted to counter Japan's economic stagnation with âAbenomicsââa monetary policy hinged on a super easy central bank, and a financial mechanism known as the âwindow guidance.â As economist Paul Krugman explained: âJapan's banks lent more, with less regard for quality of the borrower, than anyone elseâs. In doing so they helped inflate the bubble economy to grotesque proportions.â POWERED BY DEMISE OF THE DOLLAR CONTINUED... Shinzo Abe was assassinated on July 8, 2022 while speaking at a political event outside Yamato-Saidaiji Station in Nara City, Japan. There is yet more to learn from his economic specter; low interest rates continue to be the Japanese monetary policy of choice. Fast forward to todayâs âeconomic miracleâ... Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda, 31st Governor of the Bank of Japan, said that âunder the current economic conditions, itâs appropriate to continue monetary easing.â Advocacy of the central bank's super easy monetary policy continues. (Source: Statista) âIn order to bring inflation in Japan down,â adds Stefan Angrick, a senior economist at Moodyâs Analytics in Japan, âyou would have to slow demand rather sharply, and thatâs tricky because demand was already sort of weak [in Japan] relative to other economies.â The Bank of Japanâs monetary policy contrasts sharply with that of the European Central Bank, which raised borrowing costs to a 22-year high on Thursday. World-wide inflation is not an issue for the Bank of Japan. In fact, they want good inflationâthe kind created by lively consumer demand, not stimulative monetary policyâand as of this week, they have shown they are committed to achieving it. Follow your bliss, Addison Wiggin The Wiggin Sessions P.S. Persistently low interest rates in Japan present a unique opportunity known as the âcarry tradeâ. We saw this in the mid-2000s, too. 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