Why “Sell In May” Has Gone Away

Before 9/11, we would visit the “open cry” pits of oil and commodities traders near Battery Park in Manhattan. The pits were chaotic. There was yelling. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ June 2, 2023 | [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( Why “Sell In May” Has Gone Away “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shuts down for ten years.” – Warren Buffett Before 9/11, we would visit the “open cry” pits of oil and commodities traders near Battery Park in Manhattan. The pits were chaotic. There was yelling. People threw little slips of paper with trading instructions on them at “pit bosses” who wore vests like they ought to be on their way to clean the toilets down the hallway… but they were really the ones moving big money. 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A beast, an organism, a force of nature. And now, a cyborgian half-breed. And it falls upon the intelligent investor to change with it. The wisdom will change with it. We love stock market lore like “Buy the rumor, sell the news” or “The rich think in terms of decades rather than day-to-day like the everyman does.” That kind of thing. There’s something romantic about it. “Sell in May and go away!” is one of our favorites. But now we realize the phrase may be but a leveling denomination, an aristocratic adage shewn from the late British Empire, adopted by Wall Street seersuckers and the like. We know the idea from the old timer’s—guys like Jesse Livermore—who believed trading in the summer was far more risky than it was worth, as stocks typically underperform in the summer months. Your money in cash means it isn’t at risk in the markets. Plus, in the northern hemisphere it’s hot and humid; if you sold your stocks, took your profits, and escaped the summer city heat, life would be more enjoyable. Free to spend it in Tulum where your dollar goes further and the crypto evangelists like to play. Or, if you’re inclined, the transatlantic cruise lines have rebooted following the pandemic and are still reasonably inexpensive. You might even take your profits and lounge on the beach in the French Riviera living lavishly like it’s a rebirth of the Roaring ‘20s. That’s the idea anyhow. There’s definitely an F. Scott Fitzgerald Great Gatsby vibe to the phrase; the promise of opulence, licentiousness, Brigitte Bardot, the 400 Blows… and having the ‘f’ you money to do it. Sometimes a quaint notion. Sell in May, don’t buy again until October or November, when all the traders get serious about their AI stocks and options trades again. 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This year’s event will take place between September 14 and 17. Ironically, Robinhood is part of the reason the “Sell in May” sentiment is losing its veracity and with it the nostalgia of old school traders. On a beautiful spring day in Baltimore, just a few weeks past our own Preakness Stakes, we’re kind of nostalgic for open cry and taking the summer months off to travel and enjoy your wins… or losses as they may be. People still say “sell in may and go away” but the phrase is about as vestigial to the markets as your appendix is to your stomach or a wing bone on a flightless bird. So it goes, Addison Wiggin The Wiggin Sessions P.S. With the debt ceiling debate mollified (for now) and the banking crisis still nascent… and inflation not nearly under wraps… this year stock picking is the task. These days, if you sell in May and wait until St. Leger’s Day to buy again your portfolio is likely going to be in shambles when you return to it. 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