The Fed Missed the Point (Again)

Our experts aren't buying the Fed's latest projections... [Shield] AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION [Wealthy Retirement]( [View in browser]( SPONSORED [Legendary Investor Paul Tudor Jones Predicts "Violent Death" for Putin]( [Putin Stressed]( Source: [Wikimedia Commons]( Few people know this, but Putin just made the single biggest mistake of his life. It's not invading Ukraine... but it could have a profound effect on world markets. A market expert breaks down the opportunity [here](. [MARKET TRENDS]( [The Oxford Club "Dot Plot": What's Next for Interest Rates?]( [James Ogletree, Managing Editor, The Oxford Club]( [James Ogletree]( A pivotal event on the financial calendar passed last Wednesday, but I suspect many of you missed it. Each quarter, the Federal Reserve releases a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), in which the central bank's top decision makers reveal their expectations for the unemployment rate, GDP and inflation. But one section of the SEP tends to draw more attention than any other: the dot plot. This is a diagram that shows where the Fed's presidents and governors - including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell - believe interest rates are headed in the coming years. Below, you'll see a model of the Fed's most recent dot plot, which was released last Wednesday. The blue dots in each column represent the federal funds rate projections from the Fed's seven governors and the presidents of its 12 individual banks. But we've added a fun twist for you... To keep the Fed honest, we've added three more dots in each column to represent the expectations of three of our own Oxford Club experts: Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld, Director of Trading Anthony Summers and Senior Markets Expert Matt Benjamin. [Chart of the expectations of three of our own Oxford Club experts.]( [View larger image]( As you can see, our experts aren't as optimistic as the Fed about future rate cuts. Now, predicting where interest rates will land several years in advance is a fool's errand. As we always say, we're not in the business of market timing. But interest rates can have a significant impact on both the markets and the economy, so looking at the historical data and thinking ahead can be incredibly useful (and profitable!). Marc, Anthony and Matt went into more detail on the thought process behind their predictions below... SPONSORED [See How to Claim a Free Year]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Marc Lichtenfeld] Marc Lichtenfeld Chief Income Strategist I don't believe the Fed has garnered this much attention since CNBC used to try to guess the direction of interest rates by [how full former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's briefcase looked](. In the Annual Forecast Issue of The Oxford Income Letter in January, I went against the grain and said interest rates wouldn't drop by much - if at all - in 2024 due to the lack of a recession and the potential for inflation to continue burning too brightly. So far, that's been the case. At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that there would be six rate cuts in 2024. Today, according to both the Fed's dot plot and the federal funds futures market, that number is down to three. But I don't believe there will be any. Here's why... [Read Marc's Full Comments Here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Anthony Summers] Anthony Summers Director of Trading I think there's a slim chance that the Fed cuts rates this year. There are two main data points that strongly undermine the case for lower rates. The first and foremost is sticky inflation. Over the past two years, the Fed has [made great progress in taming inflation](. From its June 2022 high of 9.1%, it's down roughly two-thirds to 3.2%. That's still too high, though - about 60% higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. If inflation remains sticky, the Fed will have no reason to lower rates. In fact, that would strengthen the case for higher rates, especially given the economy's current strength. That brings me to the second data point... [Read Anthony's Full Write-Up Here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Matt Benjamin] Matt Benjamin Senior Markets Expert Predicting the course of interest rates is no easy task. That's because the Fed really is data-dependent. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will chart its course on interest rates based on the economic data that comes in... and the analysis of that data by the 400 Ph.D. economists it employs. And because predicting what the economy will do is inherently difficult, making projections on interest rates is also tricky - and it gets increasingly difficult the further out in time you project. Therefore, my rate forecast is also largely based on what I believe the economy will do. And keep in mind that any kind of unexpected supply or demand shock - like another COVID-19 flare-up, an oil price spike, etc. - would force us to throw all our projections out the window. But assuming those things don't occur, I'm optimistic about the economy for several reasons... [Read Matt's Full Analysis Here]( [2024 Private Wealth Seminar at the Wequassett Resort & Golf Club in Harwich, Massachusetts on October 7-8, 2024]( BUILD AND PROTECT YOUR WEALTH [Here are Three Steps You Need to Take to Protect and Grow Your Money When America Is Threatened With Mass Unemployment. 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