What is going to happen next? [image] [image] And They Don't Care Global central banks are very poorly run and they are not run for the average person. Global central banks are run by academics, not real people with real jobs. As a result, they are divorced from reality and make huge mistakes that affect the average person. We have seen now that the Federal Reserve Bank has only had academics as the Board of Governors for almost 20 years. Most global central banks also have just academics, who all agree with each other on policy prescriptions. The problem is that they are divorced from the real world. In the old days, prior to the Obama administration, we saw businessmen and bankers on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank. This meant that there was people who were in touch with the real world. Bankers and businessmen have to deal with customers every day. So they can see in a microscopic detail exactly what the effect of Fed policies are. Their customers will come in to borrow money or to pay off loans and that gives them a deep insight into what's going on. Businessmen know what their customers are talking about and they can see their top and bottom line and that affects what they think the Fed should do. Here's the problem. [Look Over Courtney's Shoulder As He Makes Moves You've Never Seen Before. Click here to learn more!]() But academics live in a theoretical world rather than a real world and their theoretical world is seriously flawed. They say that they are Keynesians, but they aren't. If they actually followed what Keynes said they should do, we wouldn't be in this mess. The real problem too, is that academics are not known for boldness, or being decisive. And so as a result, Fed policy has lagged behind what it should do now for decades. Alan Greenspan was the best Fed chairman of all time, and I don't think even he was particularly good. But he did one thing that was very smart. He looked at what the free market said interest rates would be, and he followed it closely. So if he saw commercial paper rates start to rise, then he would raise Fed funds. So he was only lagging the market by one to three months. The current Fed is lagging behind what they should be doing by at least a year. For example, we saw the COVID crisis crash in 2020. And the Fed decided to pump trillions of dollars into the economy. But the economy started to rally within just a few months. So the Fed should have started to take out that liquidity right away. But instead, they keep they kept on pumping and pumping and pumping. And inflation takes about a year lag from money supply growth or contraction. So the inflation started hitting early this year. It was easy for me to predict that inflation was coming because the Fed kept pumping and pumping and pumping. And what was the effect? The ULTIMATE Trading Education! Courtney Smith has put together an incredible site where he is brain dumping everything he knows about trading stocks and options. [Click here to learn more now!](=) Now some people say but no, the problem is Vladimir Putin or supply chain shortages. But let's examine both of those. Inflation was already rising sharply before Putin invaded Ukraine. So let's just say that one's ridiculous. The price of gasoline has been a huge component of the rise in inflation, but so has everything else. But the price of gasoline started going up when the Biden administration declared war on fossil fuels. There is a tightness in the supply chain but part of that is due to COVID policies by the Biden administration, which choked off the supply of truckers and trains to ports like Los Angeles. But the reality is, is that supply chains can be disrupted for a short period of time. But now it's been literally years since it started. If a factory in China can't, can't produce goods, then guess what? The largest source of clothing, Li and Peng, will just simply shift production to Vietnam or Malaysia. So I really don't believe that the supply chain is a big problem. It all comes down to what month what Milton Friedman said. Which was that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. And that means the responsibility has to lie on the Federal Reserve Bank and the other central banks who did exactly the same policies. The chart above shows real wages in four major countries or areas and as you can see, real wages are declining. That means that the inflationary policies of central banks is causing the average person to get poorer, not richer, poorer. In particular, you can see that Europe is plunging by over 4% and the others are running between one and 3% decline in real wages. Nominal wages are currently rising, but inflation is rising much faster, and will continue to rise much faster as we get into the second stage of inflation, which is the rise in sticky prices, like rent and wages. Fortunately, we have yet to hit the third stage of inflation, which is a sharp rise in inflationary expectations where people start to buy and hoard goods in anticipation of higher prices. We're not there yet, but we'll probably get there by the end of the year. The bottom line is simple. Central banks are filled with academic idiots divorced from the real world. And as a result, they cause massive destruction of personal wealth We are opening up a few slots in our Stock Navigator program where I reveal all my stock trades to you in real time. Heck, I send my trades to you before I do them so you can get in at the same prices I do! [Click here to learn more about the Stock Navigator and to apply to join.](=) Think of it as a hedge fund in your email box! Good bear market trading, Courtney Smith Words To Live By The bear side doesnât appeal to me any more than the bull side, or vice versa. My one steadfast prejudice is against being wrong. Even as a lad I always got my own meanings out of such facts as I observed. It is the only way in which the meaning reaches me. I cannot get out of facts what somebody tells me to get. They are my facts, donât you see? If I believe something you can be sure it is because I simply must. When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish. But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessionsâor my prepossessions eitherâto do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia. Where to get more Courtney! Youtube: [Freebee Wall Street Winners]( Podcast: [The Courtney Smith Show]( Substack: [courtneysmith.substack.com](=) Medium: [Courtney Smith â Medium](=) [Profile Image] COURTNEY SMITH
WealthBuilder LLC
Work (702) 761-6837 | Text Message (702) 718-8588
Support@WealthBuilderLLC.com
CourtneySmith.com Share The Love If you like Trade Secrets, then please pass it on to your nearest and dearest so they can [sign up]( too. If you believe in the power of good journalism, make it something you subscribe to. Sharing is caring. [image] 1. Get your Option Strategy Guide and 7 Option Top Trading Tactics.[Click here]() 2. Health is very important at this time. Ian Cooper has a new report and LIVE trade sheet to learn which are the BEST Health care, Pharma, Biotech, Insurance Companies.[Click here](=) [image]() [Unsubscribe]( Wealthbuilder LLC
6671 Las Vegas Blvd South
210
Las Vegas, Nevada 89119
United States
(702) 722-4584