What is going to happen next? [image] [image] The chart above shows an interesting chart that I believe shows why US stocks will outperform both developed and emerging market stocks. Let me explain this powerful chart because Iâm pretty sure you have never seen it! The mountain chart shows the price of the US dollar. The dark blue line is the ratio of the S^P 500 to the EEFA index which covers all the major markets outside of the US like Europe and Japan. The green line shows the ratio of the S&P 500 to the emerging market stock markets. Now notice that the US has been in a major bull market since the chart began in 2011 but there were two major counter trends during that time, 2017 and 2020. Now notice that the S&P 500 has been gaining on developed and emerging markets during the same time with, once again, roughly the same time period: 2017 and 2020. Why the big correlation? [Click here for information on the best weekly video newsletter the Wall Street Winner!]() US investors have only one thing to consider. For US investors, they need to look only at the stock market. If they are bullish, then buy. If bearish, then sell. If neutral, then go back in your pool. But non-US investors need to think of two things: the stock market and the dollar. For example, suppose they are bullish and think the stock market will rally 10%. But what if they also think the dollar will decline 30%. Then they should sell the stock market because they will make 10% on the stock market but, since the S&P 500 is denominated in dollars, they will lose 30% on the conversion of their 10% profit back into their currency! So they are better off buying the stock market! Now they could hedge their currency exposure but there is a cost to do that but sometimes it is a good idea to do that. So money floods into the US stock market when foreigners are bullish thus causing the dollar and the stock market to move higher. If foreigners are bearish the dollar then they will sell their stocks and invest in something else. So what about now? The ULTIMATE Trading Education! Courtney Smith has put together an incredible site where he is brain dumping everything he knows about trading stocks and options. [Click here to learn more now!]() country and has a strong economy than most major countries. Those are two major reasons why to think the dollar will remain strong. That will cause money to continue to come to American to buy stocks, thus boosting the market. The way to play this is to look for stocks to rally when the dollar is strong and vice versa. As you know, I think we are in a minor bull within a major bear. We have at least one more major decline coming this year. But this bull move has a little more to run on the upside so the next bear move will start from higher levels. I think it will break the lows we made in the last month. But I look for the dollar to remain strong basically throughout the year. This will be a background bullish feature for the stock market and will help prevent it from collapsing. Instead, the decline will be orderly. The best way I can help you to understand and profit from this market outlook is through my Stock Navigator. This is our elite advisory where you get one or two daily emails from me where I break down the market but, more importantly, you get to see all my personal trades! Itâs like looking over the shoulder of a hedge fund trader. Oh, and by the way, my global macro hedge fund was ranked the most profitable macro hedge fund for years by Altvest. Take that, George Soros! [Click here to learn more and to apply for a seat at the table now!](=) Words To Live By âMany investors hold stocks straight through a major decline. They believe that since they own only âblue-chipsâ they are not speculators. The next bear market, however, will teach them the unpleasant lesson that they are not only speculators but foolish.â Richard Russell I love this quote. Yes, it is possible to make money by buying and holding. Warren Buffet proves that. But one of the critical ways that Warren is more disciplined than you or I is that he is perfectly willing to lose half his money! Are you? Iâm not! So I believe in managing my risk but Warren is not. Most people donât manage their risk so, as the quote says, they end up foolish every time there is a bear market and they panic. Of course, I believe that bear markets should not be a source of panic but profit! [Profile Image] COURTNEY SMITH
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