Health experts: Omicron's peak coming soon

Also: Why testing lines are so long; another benefit to having cataracts removed [View in browser](    [❤️]( January 10, 2022 Hello CommonHealth reader, The eye-popping COVID numbers have lots of people wondering: [how long will this last?]( I was one of them. So, I called up epidemiologists and pandemic forecasters to see what I could learn. The most concrete estimate came from Samuel Scarpino, managing director of pathogen surveillance at The Rockefeller Foundation. He said the peak is coming soon. It could be as soon as this week and at least sometime within the next three weeks. He pointed to predictions produced by the [COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub]( which compiles numerous models into one composite forecast. The other thing I kept hearing in my conversations with experts is they are highly skeptical of COVID case counts. They say official numbers from the state are likely a severe undercount. Why? Many people are using at-home testing where results aren’t reported to health officials. Plus, there may be a large number of asymptomatic cases, meaning people don’t know to get tested. “We don’t trust those numbers right now,” Estee Cramer told me. She’s a doctoral student at UMass working at [the COVID-19 Forecast Hub]( which does modeling for the CDC. She said case counts “are not really a clear measure of anything.” One way to get a consistent sense of the amount of virus in the community is by watching the levels of [COVID found in wastewater](. The numbers from the Boston-area have been incredibly high. Jacob Lemieux, an infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital, has been studying those numbers. When I asked him what people should do, he urged everyone who has the luxury of hunkering down to do so for at least a few weeks. P.S.– Do you work in a hospital or other health care setting? We want to hear what your challenges are right now and what you're doing to get through the omicron surge. Please share your experiences (and contact information) [in this short form]( and we may reach out to feature you in a future story. Gabrielle Emanuel Health reporter [Follow]( Support the news  This Week's Must Reads [How this COVID surge compares to last winter, and when it could peak in Massachusetts]( With the sharp increase in COVID-19 numbers in Massachusetts, we’re hearing experts describe the wave of infection “like a hockey stick” because it’s shooting up so far and so fast. [Read more.]( [How this COVID surge compares to last winter, and when it could peak in Massachusetts]( With the sharp increase in COVID-19 numbers in Massachusetts, we’re hearing experts describe the wave of infection “like a hockey stick” because it’s shooting up so far and so fast. [Read more.]( [Wu outlines plans to clear Boston tent encampment this week]( Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said several efforts were underway to remove tents this Wednesday from a large encampment near the intersection of Massachusetts Avenue and Melnea Cass Boulevard, the epicenter of the region's opioid epidemic. [Read more.]( [Wu outlines plans to clear Boston tent encampment this week]( Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said several efforts were underway to remove tents this Wednesday from a large encampment near the intersection of Massachusetts Avenue and Melnea Cass Boulevard, the epicenter of the region's opioid epidemic. [Read more.]( [What's different — and what's the same — with omicron in hospitals]( Fewer patients are dying and fewer need ventilators than in prior COVID surges, but those who land in the ICU are just as sick, doctors say. [Read more.]( [What's different — and what's the same — with omicron in hospitals]( Fewer patients are dying and fewer need ventilators than in prior COVID surges, but those who land in the ICU are just as sick, doctors say. [Read more.]( [Stuck in a long line for a COVID-19 test in Mass.? Here's why]( In many cases, "there's not actually a shortage of tests," says CIC Health CEO Tim Rowe. "It's really just the health care logistics work to stand up testing sites and hire people." [Read more.]( [Stuck in a long line for a COVID-19 test in Mass.? Here's why]( In many cases, "there's not actually a shortage of tests," says CIC Health CEO Tim Rowe. "It's really just the health care logistics work to stand up testing sites and hire people." [Read more.]( [Some mental health advocates in Massachusetts want a new name for schizophrenia]( When someone is diagnosed with schizophrenia — a psychotic disorder marked by delusional thinking — they often experience fear and anxiety. A group of Massachusetts-based researchers and advocates say changing the name could reduce its stigma. [Read more.]( [Some mental health advocates in Massachusetts want a new name for schizophrenia]( When someone is diagnosed with schizophrenia — a psychotic disorder marked by delusional thinking — they often experience fear and anxiety. A group of Massachusetts-based researchers and advocates say changing the name could reduce its stigma. [Read more.]( What We're Reading 📚 In good, non-COVID news, here is [an article in JAMA Internal Medicine]( with a healthy dose of optimism: having a cataract removed is linked to a significantly decreased risk of developing dementia. Researchers followed several thousand older adults for nearly a decade, and they found that people who had cataracts removed were nearly 30% less likely to develop dementia — including Alzheimer’s disease — compared to people who did not have their cataracts removed. This could impact a lot of people. By age 75, the American Academy of Ophthalmology estimates that [half of Americans have cataracts](. One theory of what’s happening: vision problems can lead to social isolation and less mental stimulation, which might contribute to neurological problems. But here’s another interesting theory: The haziness of cataracts blocks blue light. That’s a problem because blue (short-wavelength) light is important for something called “intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells” (ipRGCs), which are linked to cognitive function. So, cataract extraction may help people get more blue light and that, in turn, may stimulate activity in numerous parts of the brain to stave off dementia. “If you have everyone wearing high-quality masks, you have 100 times the protection versus everyone wearing cloth masks.” — [Jon Levy]( a professor of environmental health at the Boston University School of Public Health ICYMI [Caught in pandemic limbo? Here's how to rebound from life's interruptions]( Writer Suleika Jaouad has made a career out of covering folks living in the "in between" spaces — starting with herself. Diagnosed with leukemia at 22, she embraced writing as a way to regain narrative control of her life. She shares lessons on making peace with uncertainty and transforming isolation into creative solitude. [Read more.]( [Caught in pandemic limbo? Here's how to rebound from life's interruptions]( Writer Suleika Jaouad has made a career out of covering folks living in the "in between" spaces — starting with herself. Diagnosed with leukemia at 22, she embraced writing as a way to regain narrative control of her life. She shares lessons on making peace with uncertainty and transforming isolation into creative solitude. [Read more.]( Did you know... scientists are [vacuuming DNA out of the air]( to help figure out where endangered species are living? 😎 Forward to a friend. 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