COVID Models: It's Likely We Won't See A Winter Surge

Also: how long stroke survivors should wait to start rehabilitation ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  [View in Browser]( | [Donate [WBUR]]( [WBUR](  [WBUR]( September 27, 2021 Good day CommonHealth peeps, While the pandemic numbers don't look great right now, the mathematical crystal ball of statistical modeling says things might get better — might being the operative word. If you've been following COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations over the last few months, then you know the delta variant has been pushing cases to a peak. But epidemiological models suggest we may turn a corner soon. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers working on forecasting the state of the pandemic, says their latest findings, combined from nine different models, [suggest that cases and deaths are likely to decline over the next six months](. This might be because there have been so many infections, Justin Lessler, one of the hub's scientists at the University of North Carolina, tells NPR. "The virus has eaten up the susceptible people. So there are less people out there to infect," he says. Eaten up? Pretty brutal. It's another reminder to get vaccinated. Getting your shots can help remove you from the pool of susceptible people, without having to get sick. A COVID vaccination reminder seems pretty fitting way to end my run with the CommonHealth newsletter. This is my last week at WBUR, and next month I'll be starting a new job at STAT News. Thanks to everyone who sent such lovely well wishes last week; I read all of your notes! It really warms my heart to know I'm not just talking to myself, and people read this newsletter. I'll miss you all. Happy Monday. — Angus Chen, health reporter newsletters@wbur.org Must Reads url[Is The Worst Over? Models Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March]( It's not a guarantee, but the math says the pandemic is likely to start fizzling out slowly over the next year. [Read more](.   #%23%23[Twitter](  #%23%23[Facebook](    [The Best Time For Rehabilitation After A Stroke Might Actually Be 2 To 3 Months Later]( Starting rehabilitation too soon after a stroke can actually make things worse. Now, a new study is zeroing in on the ideal time to start post-stroke therapy. [Read more](.  [Weight Training Isn't Such A Heavy Lift. Here Are 7 Reasons Why You Should Try It]( NPR talked to four experts to help bust common weight training myths and tell us why we should head down pump-iron alley. [Read more.](  Support the news [The FDA Has Been Without A Permanent Leader For 8 Months As COVID Cases Climb]( Leading the Food and Drug Administration is a tough job, especially in the pandemic — so tough nobody wants it. That's hurting the agency. [Read more](.  [Blue Cross Blue Shield Will Reward Doctors Who Reduce Racial Inequalities In Health Care]( Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts is hoping to close racial health disparities by paying doctors to improve outcomes and care for people of color. [Read more](. What We're Reading The most well-known and perhaps distinctive COVID symptom is the loss of smell and taste. Fully vaccinated people who aren't too worried about severe illness do tend to be scared of this symptom. Anecdotally, some people report not regaining their smell for weeks or months after recovering from COVID. It's not completely clear why COVID affects smell and taste, but one thing that scientists have noticed recently is that even mild COVID can lead to changes in the brain. Nearly all the brain regions that researchers found altered by COVID-19 are linked to the olfactory bulb, which processes smells. Texas A&M neuroscientist Jessica Bernard [writes in The Conversation]( about the emerging neuroscience of mild COVID cases. “ The CommonHealth newsletter is the perfect distillation – with a tinge of humanity – of all things healthcare across the Commonwealth (and beyond). Love this newsletter? [Support it.]( ICYMI [How Ivermectin Became The New Focus Of The Anti-Vaccine Movement]( Ivermectin, also known as the brand medication Heartgard, is the darling of the anti-vaccine movement. How exactly that happened may be confusing – there's no evidence it helps prevent or treat COVID-19.      Did you know scientists are looking to [make GMO livestock]( Gene editing might lead to hardier farm animals that can better face disease and climate change conditions. Think super pigs... [not to be confused with "spider pig."]( 😎 Forward to a friend. They can sign up [here](. 📣 Give us your feedback: newsletters@wbur.org 📨 Get more WBUR stories sent to your inbox. 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