It's Jobs Day 💼

🚨 The U.S. economy added 275k jobs in February… did you get one? March 11, 2024 | Peel #664 Silver Banana goes to... [Athena. ](=) In this issue of the Peel: - 🚨 The U.S. economy added 275k jobs in February… did you get one? - 🔫 Smith & Wesson is truly locked and loaded, smashing Q4 earnings. - 🥊 The TikTok vs United States saga continues to unfold… Market Snapshot 📸 Banana Bits 🍌 - Another surprising player is getting in on the AI game—say hello to [WalmartGPT](=) - A dovish Fed now could mean [a hawkish Fed later](), according to someone way smarter than me - Tech investment funds just had their [largest outflow ever last week]() - Not that anyone cares, but apparently, the Oscars [were on last night]( 10x Your Time with Athena What do leaders at YC, OpenAI and 100s of others know that you don’t? How to delegate with Athena elite executive assistants. Athena selects the top 1%, continuously trains and tests the latest AI tools to keep you and your assistant on the cutting edge. Some examples? Investor CRM for fundraising, lead gen tactics for growth, transforming podcasts into end-to-end content to drive sales. Get the [Athena Edge & a $1500 credit](=) here. Macro Monkey Says 🐒 Jobs Day If you didn’t know any better, you might think Oprah Winfrey was the Fed Chair because lately—everyone’s gettin’ a job. But sadly, we know it’s not Oprah. And even sadder, it turns out that way less people have been getting jobs than we previously thought. It’s been a while since we got a truly exciting macro report (if there is such a thing), so let’s get into it. The Numbers The U.S. economy added 275k jobs in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the latest employment situation report released on Friday. [Source]( Despite the ‘roided up strength of the job market, it turns out our economy might actually not be on PEDs as unemployment crept higher at the same time, going from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. That might sound like it makes negative sense, especially because we saw the labor force participation rate hold steady at 62.5%, but an uptick in participation from “prime age” (a.k.a. 25-54yrs old) to 83.5% could bring some sanity back. Before you go all “damn Joe Biden!” on me, let’s recall that the U.S. considers anyone working or looking for work as part of the country’s “labor force.” Those looking for work get labeled as “lazy bastards”—I mean—*“unemployed,” so we likely saw more “prime age” workers begin to look for work but not actually take a job yet. While the [WSO Academy]( can help with that, wage growth can too. [Source]() Speaking of wage growth, someone needs to call those three bears because we’ve found Goldilocks once again. Wages grew slightly below estimates for the month, rising just 0.1%, but that worked out to a 4.3% raise from last February, outpacing the latest CPI by 1.2%. Slow, steady wage growth is exactly what we want. And while it might mean you have to save up an additional week to buy your tickets to Cabo for spring break, growing too fast is what gives us double-digit prices on damn cartons of eggs. [Source](=) Cool, Who Cares? Amazingly, economists managed to get more of their labor market guesstimates wrong than usual last month. Consensus expectations were for 198k jobs added, a 3.7% unemployment rate, and a 0.2% increase in wages for the month. But it didn’t stop there because economists have apparently been having trouble counting over the past few months as well. Revisions to the numbers reported for jobs added in December and January took away a total of 167k jobs as: - December’s reported 333k jobs added was revised down to 290k, and - January’s revisions were somehow even worse, moving from an initially reported 353k down to 229k. So, February was actually an increase in jobs added in addition to an uptick in wage growth from January’s 0.1% decline. But, given how slight these improvements were, it’s probably not a cause of concern for JPow and the FOMC gang. The only downside was that the average total hours worked in a week increased slightly to 34.3 hours. Now, that’s just a single shift for most of you reading this, but some people like to enjoy the light that isn’t fluorescent once in a while. But then again, more hours worked = more donations to the economy, so while it sucks for those of us racking up the hours, it certainly helps the rest of us. The Takeaway? Like that feeling you get toward the end of the semester when you actually studied for finals and know your transcript isn’t gonna get you disowned by your family, we’re actually excited for the FOMC meeting next week now. [Source](=) While the odds of a rate cut next week moved from 4% to 3% following the jobs report, this month’s FOMC meeting is tag-teaming us with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as well. Odds are the SEP will come in with an outlook more optimistic than someone who just started Ozempic, further fueling market sentiment without needing to free up liquidity via a cut to rates. Once again, that landing seems pretty soft to me… What's Ripe 🤩 Smith & Wesson (SWBI) 📈29.4% - This might be a surprise to non-American apes, but the U.S. doesn’t just give guns to all of our citizens. We actually have to buy them, and, as much of a tragedy as that is, Smith & Wesson is lovin’ it. - The firearms manufacturer dominated Q4 earnings, beating on both sales and EPS as the company gained industry market share. - Election years tend to see spikes in gun sales as half the country is scared they won’t be able to buy them if a certain candidate wins. Carvana (CVNA) 📈7.3% - This vending machine-based car dealer is still following the Tom Brady playbook as the comeback keeps getting better and better. - On Friday, analysts up and down Wall Street increased their outlooks on Carvana, calling the bear case “increasingly unprovable.” - RBC went as far as to double its price target to $90/sh. But, shares have ripped over 1,040% in the past year to $85, so that’s not exactly a bold call. What's Rotten 🤮 Costco (COST) 📉7.6% - Charlie Munger was rolling in his too-early grave on Friday as his beloved Costco shares took a plunge on weak quarterly figures. - Sales rose 6% annually to $58.4bn but missed the $59.2bn expected. Same-store sales, a key metric in retail, still grew strongly. - And given the likely overreaction in selling pressure, a bunch of analysts jacked their price targets on the down day, with Jefferies going all the way to $905/sh/ Chip Stocks (SOXX) 📉4.1% - Killing the good vibes created by Friday’s jobs report, chips stocks tanked, likely due to investors locking in profits. - Needless to point out, this class of stock has been having a damn good time over the past little more than a year or so. - So, it’s not crazy to see a correction. Nvidia lost more than 5.5% while others lost even more, with Marvell Technologies lagging at -11.4%. Thought Banana 🤔 The United States vs TikTok If you look up the term “going through it” in Urban Dictionary this month, far and away, the most accurate picture to have alongside the definition would be this: We talked last week about how TikTok’s beef with UMG is creating a much quieter and sh*tty-music-laden app. Now, the U.S. government may make it not even an app anymore. What’s Happening? I don’t know if you apes are experts on geopolitics or anything, but the U.S. and China aren’t exactly best friends. Despite this, a China-made social media platform has been the fastest-growing social network in the United States for the past few years. Today, TikTok boasts the 4th most monthly active users of all social sites in the U.S., behind only Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram. This is finally beginning to cause concern with the Biden Administration for reasons beyond the fact that Joe still can’t figure out how to download the app. This week, the House of Representatives will vote on a brand new bill attempting again to either ban or force the sale of TikTok by Chinese owner, ByteDance. And this time, Joey B is fully on board. [Source](=) Quick recap: Having a Chinese owner of the 4th most popular social media app in the U.S. was concern enough for the U.S., but recent years have only brought on more scrutiny. In particular, the addition of a CCP official to TikTok’s board in 2020/2021 and a myriad of leaked documents and communications from (former) employees have started to suggest that the app could be outright controlled by the CCP. Even if not, many members of Congress view the app as—to use the most charitable phrasing—spyware. Plus, the strength of TikTok’s algorithm gives this thing the potential to be the single greatest propaganda tool in history. The basic fear is that the CCP will force ByteDance and TikTok to promote anti-American/West and/or pro-Chinese content. The State of Play With 170mn monthly American users, over half the U.S. population is on this thing. And last week, that actually came back to bite them in the *ss in a very roundabout way. Many, if not all, of those 170mn users were instructed in-app by TikTok to call their Congressional representatives and voice concern over the banning or changing ownership of the app. Users could even make these calls within the app with about 3-4 clicks of a button. So, when Congressional phone lines started blowing up as if their sex tapes had been leaked, members of Congress took this as clear evidence of TikTok’s ability to drive the motivations, desires, and actions of TikTok’s users. And for most of them, that only solidified the antagonism of TikTok within Congressional circles. To best represent how this strategy worked out for them, please see the below image: The House vote is scheduled for Wednesday, which means the new bill could be on Joey B’s desk as early as Friday. Enjoy it while it lasts! 💭 The Big Question 💭: Will TikTok be banned from the U.S. or forced to sell to a domestic owner? How will American icons like Charli D’Amelio and Josh Richards survive without the app? Will competitors like Reels and Shorts replace TikTok if banned? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Previous 🗓 Each week, a clothing salesperson receives a commission equal to 15 percent of the first $500 in sales and 20 percent of all additional sales that week. What commission would the salesperson receive on total sales for the week of $1,300? Answer: 235 Today 🕐 A certain restaurant that regularly advertises through the mail has 1,040 cover letters and 3,000 coupons in stock. In its next mailing, each envelope will contain 1 cover letter and 2 coupons. If all the cover letters are used, how many coupons will remain in stock after this mailing? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” — Milton Friedman How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁[All the bananas]() 😐[Meh]() 😩[Rotten AF]() Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE](=) // [WSO ALPHA]( // [ACADEMY]() // [COURSES]( // [LEGAL]( [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353