Even More All Time Highs 💰

🤷‍♂️ Everyone’s favorite digital asset just had its best and worst day… March 6, 2024 | Peel #661 Silver Banana goes to... [The MBA Tour. ]() In this issue of the Peel: - 👀 Check out the latest ISM Report On Business. - 🆙 NYCB’s stock climbed higher—so it seems that they’re okay? - 🤷‍♂️ Everyone’s favorite digital asset just had its best and worst day… Market Snapshot 📸 Unlock a New Career at The MBA Tour San Francisco & Los Angeles The MBA San Francisco & Los Angeles is here to give you exclusive access to top business schools from around the world all in one place! Best of all, it's FREE! San Francisco - Join us at the Palace Hotel, a Luxury Collection Hotel, San Francisco to speak directly with admissions representatives from some of the world’s leading programs. Los Angeles - Join us at the Omni Los Angeles Hotel at California Plaza to speak directly with admissions representatives from some of the world’s leading programs. Representatives including Boston University, Notre Dame, UC Davis, UC San Diego, ASU & more Saturday, March 9, 2024 for both San Francisco & Los Angeles11:00 AM to 3:30 PM Event Features: - Meet ups: Participate in small group meetings with an admissions representative and up to five other peers to gain valuable insights and get all your questions answered. - MBA Talks: Attend university-hosted presentations to gather application tips, receive career advice, and explore various programs. - Networking Fair: Chat with admissions representatives from all the participating universities and connect with fellow applicants, current students, alumni, and advisors. PLUS the chance to win a $250 GMAT exam voucher and other great prizes! [Sign Up Now for San Francisco](=) [Sign Up Now for Los Angeles]( Macro Monkey Says 🐒 Better Than Good(s)… Baseball is still the official title holder of “America’s National Pastime.” While a great sport, I don’t think anyone under 65 has watched a baseball game on TV since Randy Johnson destroyed that bird with a pitch. But it’s 2024, and we think eviscerating birds is wrong now. So, it’s about time for a new national pastime. Our proposal? Spending money. Historically, Americans have been seen as materialistic, often “buy[ing] things we don't need with money we don't have to impress people we don't like,” to quote the great Tyler Durden from Fight Club. But now, the problem with that quote is the word “things.” According to recent ISM Manufacturing and Services data, we’ve replaced things with experiences. The Numbers Earlier this week, we talked about declining activity in the manufacturing sector, particularly the dramatic slowdown in New Orders for manufactured goods. Obviously, this is a problem as spending makes up close to 70% of U.S. GDP in any given year. But the economic gods are listening because—services are trying to pick up the slack. [Source](=) Don’t rain on my parade yet because although we can see a decline from January to the 52.6% PMI in February, anything above 50% represents expansion. So, it might be at a slower rate, but the services side of the economy is still expanding. Like Wilt Chamberlain dropping 100 points in a single game, Services are carrying the team while goods, at a PMI of 47.8%, slipped into contraction. Services typically make up around 70% of total consumer spending in the U.S., so overall, these two together imply an expanding economy—and at a pretty good pace, too. Some quick math for y’all: Using the above weightings, if we were to calculate a weighted PMI, we would get a total of 51.16. That’s nonsense economics for those of you wondering, but then again, what in macro isn’t?? [Source](=) Here, we can see that New Orders for services are doing just fine. This suggests that demand concerns implied by the 6.1% decline in New Orders for goods may be overblown as that demand could simply be reallocating to services. It’s not as simple as an even tradeoff, however. While there is still reason to be concerned over manufacturing growth, especially as the sector is a predominant leading indicator, this suggests there’s less reason to be concerned over our new national pastime, spending money. The other big one that macro viewers are concerned with is, of course, prices, as inflation is still striking as much fear into American hearts as mail-package bombs did in the 1980s. [Source]( Here, we can see inflation is still putting up MVP numbers but is finally starting to slow its career down. Again, it ain’t much, but we’ll sure as hell take it! Some other numbers in the report include: - An increase to 57.2 in Business Activity - A decrease to 48 in Employment - A decrease to 48.9 in Supplier Deliveries - A decrease to 47.1 in Inventories The Takeaway? Much like that paper you turned in 1 min before leaving for Spring Break, the Services PMI report looked good on the outside, was pretty garbage in some parts, but will still give us a passing grade. Declines in employment and supplier deliveries take away a lot of the optimism, especially considering employment is the bedrock of consumer spending. But luckily, we don’t have to wait too long to get an update on the employment situation, with the next jobs report set to be released this Friday. We’ll start worrying then if there’s a problem. Cs get degrees, and so do Ds. If anything, this report was in the C/C+ range and might’ve even earned a B- if the professor likes you. We just hope the same for that paper you just turned in… What's Ripe 🤩 New York Community Bancorp (NYC) 📈18.0% - Boomers holding NYCB haven’t seen this much action since getting back from Vietnam, but at least shares moved in the right direction yesterday. - NYCB boomed after reaching a record low not seen since 1996. The whiplash comes on a bout of optimism despite warnings on Monday. - The bank said payments on deposits may have to increase to stem a flight risk. Plus, Moody’s hit ‘em with their 2nd downgrade in a month. Target (TGT) 📈12.1% - Your parent’s favorite store is also blessing their retirement account this week as Target posts solid Q4 earnings. According to their CFO, Target is so back. - They beat on EPS but missed on sales. Guidance was strong, and a return to top-line growth is (allegedly) planned for 2024. There’s a lot more in store as well (no pun intended). - Target announced a slew of new initiatives, too, including a $99/yr “Circle 360” subscription that brings enhanced delivery features and other benefits. What's Rotten 🤮 Gitlab (GTLB) 📉21.0% - I’m not nerdy (a.k.a. smart) enough to use Gitlab, and apparently, nobody else will be for long, either. The stock dove on Tuesday on depressing guidance. - To start with the good news, Gitlab posted strong results for Q4. 33% sales growth helped beat on both revenue and EPS, but… - But, the 26% sales growth projected in Q1 was horrifying to analysts, sending shares through the floor. But the stock has still been up >100% since May. Big Tech (MSFT) 📉3.0% - What an absolute vibe killer. Selloffs in every mega-cap tech name (except Nvidia, obviously) brought the market to its knees yesterday. - Apple was the real vibe killer as a report of a 24% decline in iPhone sales in China destroyed shares. Yet, Microsoft had the worst day of all. - Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla all lost over 1.5% as well. The heat check was just a day before Powell’s testimony, so profit protection could be at play. Thought Banana 🤔 All-Time Highs It’s official—the Zombie Apocalypse is here. Not the kind that you’ve seen in movies or TV shows or anything, but much, much worse. Yesterday, we saw a horrifying revival of BTC bulls on Finance Twitter (Finance X?) as BTC just hit a brand new all-time high. It then immediately plummeted well over 10%, currently sitting at $61.967k as I write this (yesterday 4:11 pm EST). As pointed out [here](, that makes yesterday one of BTC’s best and worst days of all time. I guess the favorite phrase of that annoying kid in your English class extends to digital assets, showing us the “duality of BTC.” What Happened? [Source]( Yesterday morning, BTC did the impossible. We all know how important memes are to the fundamental analysis of digital assets, so seeing BTC cross the very nice $69k line, I thought Satoshi was gonna announce a run for President right after. Peaking at $69.21k, I guess we’ll have to wait for it to hit $69.42k before that happens. Needless to point out, the ~$7bn in assets that have now flooded into spot BTC ETFs are primarily responsible for the rip. But there’s a lot more going on in the digital asset space than traditional finance firms coming in to own the asset class. [Source]( Here’s a term we haven’t thought about since 2020—the BTC Halving, or “The Halvening.” To jog your memory, one of the key fundamental drivers of “value” for BTC is the fact that its supply is capped at 21 million coins. Coins are created through a process called “mining,” where powerful computers solve complex math problems to “mine” BTC. The complexity of these math problems is largely what gives BTC much of its safety as a network and plays a role in making it “trustless.” Miners are then rewarded with BTC if their computer is the first to solve this math problem. Since 2020, miners have received 6.25 BTCs for each “block” they create by solving these math problems (hence, “blockchain.”) In April of this year, the next BTC Halving is set to occur, bringing the reward-per-block down by half to 3.125 BTCs. Who Cares? Simply put, decreasing the reward for miners leads to a decrease in supply. With less incentive to mine, smaller-scale BTC miners will exit the market, plus the math problems will become harder, leading to a slower rate of supply increase. You don’t need an economics degree to know that a slower rate of growth in supply leads to price increases, assuming demand doesn’t fall. So, this monstrous decline that’s already picking itself back up (now 4:23 pm EST) could be short-lived. The BTC Halving occurs every four years—every Leap Year, actually—and has been linked in the past to price rises of the underlying asset. As of right now, the last BTC is expected to be mined in 2140 (yes, the year). It’s an asymptotic process that manages the supply, inflation, and safety of the asset, so we’ve got a long way to go before we get there. By that time, Satoshi should be around Biden and Trump’s age, so maybe then he can mount that Presidential run. We’ll see. 💭 The Big Question 💭: Will BTC recover from this horrendous drop after setting an all-time high? What’s your year-end price target? What other digital assets are you bullish on? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Previous 🗓 A couple decides to have 4 children. If they succeed in having 4 children and each child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl, what is the probability that they will have exactly 2 girls and 2 boys? Answer: 3/8 Today 🕐 Running at their respective constant rates, Machine X takes 2 days longer to produce w widgets than Machine Y. At these rates, if the two machines together produce 1.25w widgets in 3 days, how many days would it take Machine X alone to produce 2w widget? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “Imagine if gold turned to lead when stolen.” — Satoshi Nakamoto How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁[All the bananas]() 😐[Meh]() 😩[Rotten AF]() Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE]( // [WSO ALPHA](=) // [ACADEMY]() // [COURSES]( // [LEGAL]() [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353