The Super Bowl's Viewership Craze 🤯

🏈 Would you rather watch a moon landing or the NFL Super Bowl? February 13, 2024 | Peel #646 Silver Banana goes to... [SRS Acquiom. ]() In this issue of the Peel: - 🇺🇸 What’s going on with our economy’s current financial conditions? - 📅 Mondays just gone from bad to worse as Monday.Com’s stock tanked. - 🏈 Would you rather watch a moon landing or the NFL Super Bowl? Market Snapshot 📸 Banana Bits 🍌 - Maybe Mag 7 concentration [isn’t as bad as we think?]( - Confidence continued into yesterday’s [Consumer Expectations survey]( - Distressed commercial real estate might be the [new YOLO trade]() - Arm just keeps getting [more and more jacked](=) (lucky) - JetBlue shares took off on [activist interest from Carl Icahn](=) Paradise: A World Without VDR Invoice Shock “WTF? How did the VDR bill get so high?!” It’s not something anyone expects to say. And yet there’s a real chance that somewhere in the world, someone is saying something a lot like it right now. The reason is simple: unnecessarily complex VDR pricing models. Pay per page? Per gigabyte? Per month? Per user? Does it really have to be this hard? No, it really doesn’t. All it takes to avoid the trap (and the shock that comes with it) is to go with a truly transparent VDR provider. Yes, they exist—and SRS Acquiom can help. A great place to start is with this brief overview of what to look for—and what to steer clear of—in your search for the right VDR partner. Efficient functionality, secure storage, and consistent service levels are all no-brainers when it comes to selecting a VDR. Transparent, flat-rate pricing belongs on that list, too. [Start your journey to paradise.]() Macro Monkey Says 🐒 The Market’s Mental Health All of us, every single day, constantly ask, “How’s the market doing?” Yet despite all this attention to make sure it’s feeling okay, the market chooses to act like a paranoid schizophrenic. And to all paranoid schizophrenics out there, apologies for comparing you to the market. Anyway, with the S&P 500 holding above 5,000 for a few days now, it’s clear the market’s doing alright… for now. Leading into today’s inflation report, that certainly could change on a dime. But, closely related to inflation is this idea of “financial conditions.” Being one of those phrases that every CNBC pundit likes to throw around with absolutely no evidence that they have any idea what it means, we figured this is a good chance to f*ck around and find out what exactly these conditions are. Chilling Without A Villain Let’s take a trip over to Chicago. The Federal Reserve Bank in America’s 3rd most populous city keeps the official score for financial conditions in both the traditional and adjusted sense. The NFCI, or National Financial Conditions Index, provides a “comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and ‘shadow’ banking systems.” As of February 2nd, the NFCI sat at -0.49. [Source](=) This index is reported in terms of standard deviations away from the average since 1971. So, financial conditions are currently 0.49 standard deviations less restrictive than the average. But there are really only 3 factors influencing financial conditions. These include: - Credit—Lagging indicator - Leverage—Leading indicator - Risk—Coincident indicator Under the hood, ~115 indicators are used to compile the aggregated term of “financial conditions.” Some of the most heavily weighted include interest rates of various debt instruments, credit spreads, banking leverage, and more nerdy sh*t that put you to sleep in college. During the peak ZIRP era following the pandemic, conditions were near record lows. So, all this talk in recent months about “restrictive” conditions needs context. And to add to that context, let’s take a look at another Skittles-colored index: [Source](=) Here, overall macroeconomic performance is considered as well. Unfortunately for us, factoring in growth, inflation, employment, and other readings, the ANFCI (“adjusted” NFCI) only gives us a reading of -0.50 standard deviations below the norm. Rarely do these two readings diverge very far, but it’s important context to see that, considering macro conditions, financial conditions are even less restrictive. So, one takeaway here is that despite the fact that 2022 and 2023 saw the fastest rate hiking cycle in U.S. history, financial conditions were still unable to officially enter “restrictive” territory above 0.0. As we discussed in pointing out the potential of debt-fueled growth powering U.S. GDP on the consumer and government spending side, markets, and the economy alike, have also been fueled by loose financial conditions. Once again, we’re seeing an economic reality suggestive of artificial growth. Skeptical haters of the economy out there would argue this can’t last long—maybe artificial growth isn’t bad? The Takeaway? Later today (several hours ago for most of you waking up to read this, I’m sure), we’ll get the January consumer inflation report. Yesterday, we learned that consumer expectations for inflation 1 and 5 years out from now were entirely unchanged from the prior month at 3.0% and 2.5%. [Source]() If we see a CPI report above December or scary to the market in some other way, this could lead to even further easing of financial conditions, taking us right back in the direction of ZIRP era liquidity levels even with >5% rates and >2% real rates. Now, we can only ask—should we be concerned that the strong growth seen in the U.S. is built entirely on artificially loose financial conditions and debt-fueled spending? How would a surprise CPI print at 8:30 am EST change that? We don’t know, but I really hope my mom comes and picks me up soon. What's Ripe 🤩 VF Corp (VFC) 📈14.0% - Partying like it’s 1973, VF Corp just had its best day in nearly 50 years. There’s a lot going on at your hipster friend's favorite company. - The owner of certain brands like North Face, Timberlands, and Vans got a boost from heavy insider buying, with CEO Darrell Bracken buying another 65k shares. - Plus, activist investor Engaged Capital—who has been a thorn in VF Corp’s side since October—got some support from John Barbey, an heir to the family firm. Diamondback Energy (FANG) 📈9.4% - For energy stocks, accessing the Permian basin is like a high schooler accessing alcohol. Not only is it dope, but it’s confirmation you’re one of the cool kids. - On Monday, Diamondback announced a mega, $26bn merger with private Endeavor Energy to create a $50bn behemoth dominating the basin. - The Permian basin is the largest oil deposit in the continental U.S., and amid consolidation in big energy, access to this pot of black gold is pure gold. What's Rotten 🤮 Big Lots (BIG) 📉28.0% - The bigger they are, the harder they fall—and boy was that true for $BIG yesterday. Shares crashed thanks to a bunch of haters at Loop Capital. - Apocalyptic is really the only way to describe Lot’s outlook, downgrading the retailer from a Hold to Sell and slashing its price target from $6 to $1. - Analysts cite the firm’s drown-inducing piles of debt as the reason for the cut, calling Big Lots “susceptible to a ‘death spiral’” if access to credit gets tighter. Oof… Monday.Com (MNDY) 📉10.1% - It’s tough to make Mondays even worse than they are, but on Monday, Monday.Com reminded us why we need to cancel this weekday ASAP. - Earnings weren’t even bad—sales grew 35% compared to 2022, and both quarterly sales and EPS crushed estimates. But guidance was lousy. - Profit and free cash flow margins are projected to decline in FY’24, giving traders all the reason they need to punish Monday for even existing. = Thought Banana 🤔 Records On Records While the only records Kanye’s latest album, Vultures I with Ty Dolla $ign, broke was reaching never-before-seen levels of disappointment, there were some records broken over the weekend (we think). Super Bowl 58 was won on Sunday, with the Kansas City Chiefs taking home their 4th ever league championship, their third in 5 years. [Source](=) More importantly, the United States maintained their undefeated record in Super Bowls all-time, so congratulations again to the Red, White, and Blue. Anyway, official viewership numbers for the biggest day in the United States that somehow isn’t a federal holiday will be released later today, but before we get confirmation, let’s try our country’s real favorite pastime: wild speculation. The most watched television program in U.S. history boasted about 150mn total viewers with the Apollo 11 Moon Landing in 1969—which, like winning a Super Bowl, is also something no other country has ever done. Second place is, of course, last year’s Super Bowl, where the Kansas City Chiefs also won. Last year, 115.1mn total viewers watched the KC dynasty begin, and in 2024, early signs indicate that the record has been broken. Nielsen Media Research is the de facto authority on this, but without their estimates, we’ll go with others. Including those estimates, yesterday’s matchup totaled ~121mn watchers from sea to shining sea. Nice! Who Cares? Shoutout to Taylor Swift, SpongeBob, and sports betting for the help. In recent years, professional sports and, specifically, NFL viewership have been on rocky ground. Between permanent brain damage widespread among retired (and probably active) players, Roger Goodell's bullsh*t, and obviously the pandemic, viewership has been a concern for league execs of late. But with the combination of Time’s Person of the Year heavily invested in the game (figuratively), new broadcasting strategies including a “Live From Bikini Bottom” edition from Nickelodeon, and all of us degenerates heavily invested in the game (literally), the NFL took all the help they could get. In order to maintain relevance, the NFL has had to expand beyond the game of football in the 21st century. So far, it’s working out well, but we can’t help but wonder if gambling and celebrity worship are ideal long-term strategies for growth. The globalization of sports seems to be attracting more U.S. fans of international “sports” like soccer and F1 racing than U.S. sports are attracting international fans. [Source](=) Sure, when the NFL goes to England or Germany, there’s a big turnout. But the international segment isn’t seeing close to the growth in popularity that leagues like the Premier League have seen in the U.S. in recent years. As long as we don’t start calling soccer “football” here stateside, I guess it’s okay with me. 💭 The Big Question 💭: Will international sports continue to outpace U.S. sports in this growth dichotomy going forward? How are other U.S. sports faring against the NFL? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Yesterday 🗓 If the amount of federal estate tax due on an estate valued at $1.35mn is $437k plus 43$ of the value of the estate in excess of $1.25mn, then the federal tax due is approximately what percent of the value of the estate? Answer: 36% Today 🕐 David used part of $100,000 to purchase a house. Of the remaining portion, he invested ⅓ of it at a 4 percent simple annual interest and ⅔ of it at a 6 percent simple annual interest. If after a year the income from the investments totaled $320, what was the purchase price of the house? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “I think towards the later part of this year, maybe Q4, we’ll see a rate cut. Obviously, Jerome Powell has continually fought against that, but I think he’s just trying to signal to the market not to get too hot.” — Justin Watson (Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver) How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁 [All the bananas](=) 😐 [Meh](=) 😩 [Rotten AF](=) Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE]( // [WSO ALPHA]( // [ACADEMY]( // [COURSES]( // [LEGAL](=) [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353