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One of the best Fintwit (X?) accounts around, Unusual Whales, released their 2023 Congressional Trading Report. [The Daily Peel... ](=) January 03, 2024 | Peel #618 In this issue of the Peel: - The U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell further into contraction territory last month, falling from 49.4 to 47.9 in December. - Moderna and Citigroup had a ripe day, while Rivian and Apple saw their share price close lower for the day. - One of the best Fintwit (X?) accounts around, Unusual Whales, released their 2023 Congressional Trading Report. Market Snapshot Happy Wednesday, apes. How great is it that this is only a 4-day week because it’s not even Wednesday yet, and I already feel like retreating to a cabin in the woods and going full hermit. But we’ll give it a few more years before that. Unfortunately, we couldn’t give it any years before market losses returned as 2024 got started with a continuation of Friday’s selloff. Most of yesterday's nonsense was thanks to one name (looking at you, Apple), but the Dow still managed to eke out a gain of 7bps. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq led the way lower with a 1.63% loss. But thankfully, the apes over at WSO Alpha managed to plug the losses on this one. As we learned yesterday, we may not have outperformed the Nasdaq last year, but we did with only a 0.51% loss yesterday. Maybe all the New Year’s trades we placed had something to do with it… Let’s get into it. Calling all Sophomores. Your time is NOW (skip the waitlist) [image]( What a shocker, recruiting season kicked off early, yet again! RBC, Houlihan, Rothschild, DB and BMO among others already opened up SUMMER 2025 APPLICATIONS. That means if you are targeting IB or other high finance roles, you should ALREADY BE APPLYING or be ready to apply VERY soon. Use [WSO Academy](=) to get ahead with personalized 1:1 coaching with actual IB pros, over 100 hours of expert-led finance courses, and a unique internship experience to help you land more interviews. Build a strong foundation with our extensive network and interview preparation so you can land more offers. If you wait until junior year (or even 1 month), your odds drop dramatically…so don’t wait and apply now to gain a critical edge this recruiting season. Since timing is so critical and we need every day we can get over winter break, if you are a 2026 grad, please use the link below to skip the waitlist and apply directly. [Skip Waitlist. Click here to Apply to WSO Academy today.]() (if you are not a 2026 grad and you apply directly, you will be automatically removed from the process) Macro Monkey Say A Tale of Two Happy Holidays, New Year, and whatever other nonsense we’re all happy/pretending to be happy for today. All I know is I like opening presents and stumbling home a lot more than saying, “Alright, let’s circle back to…” But alas, with the New Year comes getting back to the same desk and, along with that, the same macro reports we all know and love. We’ve gone a good few weeks without anything exciting or all too important getting released, but this month and even this week will make sure that changes. The December jobs report on Friday will be the big news of the week, but yesterday, we started to get some data that might give us a glimpse into how we worked during the holiday season. S&P released their global manufacturing PMI, and, exactly like we’d been hoping for, we’re confused already. Starting with the U.S., the only manufacturing we did was less. The U.S. PMI (a.k.a. Purchasing Managers Index) fell further into contraction territory last month, falling from 49.4 to 47.9 in December. "The U.S. PMI (a.k.a. Purchasing Managers Index) fell further into contraction territory last month ..." New orders were the main contributor here, and according to most economists, that’s arguably the most important line item in terms of leading indicators contained in the report. Purchasing managers claimed and blamed decreased demand from their buyers as the primary culprit, allegedly even stemming from “lower purchasing power” and “global economic uncertainty.” That sounds about right, but seeing customers blame inflationary pressures for reduced new orders and overall production can’t be a good sign, especially when markets are now relying on cuts from the Fed for the upside, just like how I rely on you guys to click on our ad placements to keep a job. Anyway, the main takeaway here is that U.S. manufacturing appears to have slowed once again to close out 2023, meaning Santa must’ve given out fewer presents this year. "... let’s talk about the silver medalist for a second. " But enough about the world’s largest economy, let’s talk about the silver medalist for a second. China’s manufacturing sector is where the aforementioned confusion largely comes from. On Sunday, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (the official word on the country’s PMI) came out and said their own reading had fallen to 49 as well. Oh yeah, and for context, anything less than 50 represents contraction, while above 50 suggests expansion. According to S&P, however, the data suggests “sustained improvement” to close out the year for China. And while U.S. purchasing managers are concerned about inflationary impacts, these costs allegedly only “continued to moderate at the end of the year” for the Red Dragon. Even still, conditions didn’t improve by much as the S&P’s PMI increased from 50.7 to only 50.8. But as the old saying goes, a win is a win. So, in addition to earthquakes and some great college football matchups, 2024 has already brought us some classically ambiguous macro data. The fun is officially back. What's Ripe Moderna (MRNA) $112.50 (↑ 13.12% ↑) - I’m sure you’ve heard “Happy New Year” about 4 million times by now, and while you might be having one yourself, no one’s having a happier new year than Moderna so far. - Shares kicked off 2024 with a “get the people goin’” type of pop thanks to an upgrade to Outperform from Oppenheimer, suggesting the firm doesn’t expect Moderna’s results to bomb anytime soon (bah dum tss). - The optimism comes from the excitement around the now-(in)famous biotech firm’s pipeline over the next 12-18 months, expecting revenue to actually increase once again by… 2025. - It’s a nice boost, but the stock’s still off ~75% from Sept 2021 peaks, and although those levels may never be seen again, it’s hard to forget the good ol’ days of being locked inside our houses and wearing masks everywhere we went… but hey, at least our portfolios were actually up for once. Citigroup (C) $53.04 (↑ 3.11% ↑) - If the Crips and the Bloods can team up to defeat Isis, I guess large U.S. banks can team up to attract more gains, too. - And that’s basically what we saw on Tuesday. Wells Fargo analysts blessed their counterparts over at Citi (and their stock option programs) as the former boosted their price target from $60 to $70 on the smaller bank, saying shares could double within the next 3 years. - Rate cuts and ongoing restructuring at Citi were the drivers for this upgrade, according to Wells. What's Rotten Rivian (RIVN) $21.10 (↓ 10.06% ↓) - Like when clothes from SHEIN or something goes unsold and get dumped into the ocean, it turns out you actually need buyers in order for the things you make to be valuable. Rivian learned that the hard way on Tuesday. - Thankfully, however, you can’t dump electricity into the ocean (yet). We can dream, but Rivian’s dreams are only gonna be nightmares tonight as the stock plummeted on disappointing delivery numbers. - 13,972 vehicles were delivered in Q4, a 10% decline from the preceding quarter and just under the 14k expected. Production for the quarter totaled 17,541, bringing 2023’s total above guidance, but that’s not exactly ideal when those cars are just gonna be sitting in storage for another quarter. - Meanwhile, Tesla smoked their guidance for production and delivery numbers last quarter, but shares were still off a tiny 2bps for the day. Apple (AAPL) $185.64 (↓ 3.58% ↓) - Apparently, some of us woke up on Tuesday and decided that in 2024, the world needs more hatred. Looking at you, Barclays analysts. - The punch-bowl-pissers over at the British bank came out Tuesday with a downgrade on the world’s most valuable company, sending shares over 3.5% lower on the basis of slowing hardware sales and flat revenue growth. - Maybe valid, but damn, you just had to kill the 2024 vibe already? With Apple alone still making up ~7.05% of the S&P 500, this was a tough one to overcome. Now, Microsoft, at $2.76tn, is eyeing the title of “world’s most valuable” company with Apple at “just” $2.89tn after yesterday’s close. Thought Banana The World’s Greatest Hedge Fund The U.S. Congress is a lot of things. A legislative body, a group of 535 people, and especially in recent decades, more and more of a comedy show. But it turns out the U.S. Congress is something else we might not have expected—one of the world’s greatest hedge funds. While we apes get degrees in finance, economics, math, and whatever else for a shot to become part of a great fund or company, it turns out that the best returns apparently come from political science degrees. One of the best Fintwit (X?) accounts around, [Unusual Whales](=), has once again done God’s work. They report on news in markets for stocks, digital assets, options, and more, with a focus on all things… unusual. Here, we have the least bit of usualness in their [2023 Congressional Trading Report.]( "Here, we have the least bit of usualness in their 2023 Congressional Trading Report." This all started back in 2020 when the GOATs at that time published the first Congressional Trading Report, setting Fintwit on fire and not just telling but showing the American people exactly how much bread their elected representatives are throwing on markets. Needless to point out, there are always plenty of trades in these reports that are downright… unusual. Calling something insider trading is a bold move, but if something looks, smells, and feels like something, well, it might just be. Reform bills that restrict or outright ban Representatives and Senators from trading individual companies, tokens, or anything else have been floated, but needless to point out, nothing has really been done so far. The only thing that has been done so far, it seems, is more trading. One of the main takeaways from this year’s report is that Congress members appear to be becoming a lot more conscious of the public scrutiny placed on their trades observed through mandatory disclosures. In years past, over 1/3rd of members have been active individual security traders. But in 2023, that number fell to just around 1/5th of the 535 members, according to Unusual Whales’ analysis. The most famous member of the Congressional S&T department, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is also probably the most blatant with making “unusual” trades. These tend to be done by her husband, who has worked in finance his entire career and includes trades made just weeks ago where the two purchased “deep-in-the-money” Nvidia calls literal days before major bullish announcements came out related to the federal government investing more in the industry and the expansion of chips allowed to be sold to the Chinese market. Oh yeah, and she divested from the company earlier in the year due to “potential conflicts [of interest],” so this was a particularly unusual way to end 2023. "I’m sure members of Congress using their privileged access ..." I’m sure members of Congress using their privileged access to information to borderline rob investors and the public, especially when doing so to companies they directly oversee, needs no explanation on why that’s f*cked up. Just think, what would George Washington say? Anyway, go check out the full report, linked again [here](=), and then maybe consider calling your representative. If they’re not going to change regulations, at least maybe ask them to send you some tips before their disclosures drop. The Big Question: Will we ever see changes made to the rules governing trading by members of Congress? Is an outright ban on individual securities the best option? Whose portfolio are you tracking in 2024? Banana Brain Teaser Yesterday — Rob and Bob played a challenging game several times, betting one pebble on the outcome every time. Rob won seven pebbles, while Bob won seven times. There were no ties. How many times did they play? Answer If Rob is up seven pebbles, that means he has won seven more times than he has lost. He lost seven times. Therefore, Rob won 7+7=14 times. Games Played = Rob's wins + Bob's wins = 14 + 7=21 Today — Jane has twenty bills in her wallet. She has a total of $80. If she has two more $5 bills than $10 bills, and four more $1 bills than $5 bills, how many bills of each does she have? Shoot us your guesses at vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas” — Paul Samuelson How would you rate today’s Peel? [All the bananas]( [Decent]( [Rotten AF](=) Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? [Be smart like your friend](). [ADVERTISE]() // [WSO ALPHA]( // [COURSES]() // [LEGAL]() Don't want The Daily Peel? [Unsubscribe here](=). Click to [Unsubscribe]( from ALL WSO content IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States