WSO Platinum Banana: Person of the Year

Under the category marked "Person of the Year," the 2023 Platinum Banana award goes to Jerome "JPow" Powell! [The Daily Peel... ]() December 29, 2023 | Peel #616 Silver banana goes to... [SRS Acquiom. ]() In this issue of the Peel: - As of now, GDP growth for the year is slated to outperform expectations rolling into the year, hitting as high as 4.9% in Q3. - PENN Entertainment and Advanced Micro Devices had a ripe day, while Tesla and NeoGenomics suffered a share price decline. - Under the category marked "Person of the Year," the 2023 Platinum Banana award goes to Jerome "JPow" Powell! Market Snapshot Happy Friday, apes. And, more importantly, happy last trading day of the year. It’s your last chance to tax loss harvest your way into 2024, but that only matters if you have realized gains to worry about. Personally, I had to look up “gains” in the dictionary to see what that means, but maybe some of you out there aren’t just cash incinerators. And yesterday, it wasn’t particularly challenging to find somewhere to incinerate that cash. Obviously, I find that place day in and day out, but with yesterday’s choppiness, I’m sure some of you joined me. The Dow and the S&P were higher here in the U.S., with the former’s 0.14% gain leading the way, while the Russell 2k and Nasdaq moved lower. The Nasdaq was basically flat, while the small-cap index was down 0.38%. In the meantime, of course, the apes at WSO chose the wrong two indexes to follow, moving 0.15% lower on the day as their room-temperature IQs fell even lower on the day as we continue to roll into winter. Time to turn the heat back on, huh? Get Perks & Exclusive Offers from the Companies You Own [image]() Sure, we all know that investing in stocks is all about getting rich. But did you know that some companies offer ongoing exclusive deals and gifts to their shareholders? 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Lay down your weapons, shut your laptop screens, and maybe finally go touch some grass because this year’s gains are about to be locked in. Welcome to the last trading day of 2023. Now, it’s not like anything crazy happens just because it’s a new year, but the changing of that last number when you write the date—which I’m sure most of us will mess up until well into March—gives us a chance to stop and reflect. Heading into 2024, it’s helpful to recall what got us to where we are today, kind of like looking at your high school yearbook but without the gag reflex caused by your haircut. Coming into 2023, investors were bracing for the worst. We had just come off a year where the S&P started off by hitting an all-time high close of ~4,796 and then subsequently tumbled 19.44% by the time we got to 2023. Annual inflation was at 6.4% in January, and the effective fed funds rate sat at 4.33%. Needless to say, things didn’t stay like that for long. By early March, rates had been bumped to a range of 4.5-4.75%, and this proved to simply be way too much to handle for some of the country’s largest regional banks. Losses in bond portfolios held by Silicon Valley Bank piled up to a level much too high for investors’—and depositors’—liking, triggering a bank run and the eventual collapse of the entire bank, marking the 3rd largest bank collapse in U.S. history to date. The second largest happened just a few days after, and the bank failures continued through May. By the end of the first quarter, U.S. GDP had grown a cool 2% annualized for the year so far. By April, while we were still rushing to hide in our nuclear bunkers waiting for the imminent collapse of the American financial system 2.0, CPI clocked in at 4.9% while the fed funds rate was now targeting 4.75%-5.0%. At this point, the other major economic developments to be wary of were more gradual. Rate hikes seemed to magnetically pull dollars into high-yielding money market funds, and mortgage rates had officially breached 7% for the first time since 2002. "Rate hikes seemed to magnetically pull dollars into high-yielding money market funds ..." Despite all that nonsense, the S&P was already up 7% for the year by April 1st, more indicative of how downbad we were in 2022. As we continued to slowly digest improving inflation reports and worsening housing market reports, but all still kept our jobs (for the most part), newfound optimism led to a summer rally in stocks that kept us happy. 79% of S&P companies beat their earnings estimates in Q2 while “inflation” was still the hot topic of *checks notes* every single company’s conference call. Even with those inflationary woes, profits soared all summer alongside a rally in share prices. Disinflation meant that companies could still pass along those inflation-era price hikes while watching costs fall, padding profits and our portfolios. "Q3 earnings szn tried to lift us back up, but market worries had shifted from cost controls amid inflation ..." July saw the last rate hike from the Fed (so far), which also conveniently coincided with a short-term market top. From the end of July to the end of October, the S&P 500 fell as much as 10% as fears shifted from inflation to recession. Q3 earnings szn tried to lift us back up, but market worries had shifted from cost controls amid inflation, leading to higher/lower profits to demand concerns around both consumer and business spending. The idea was that if we were heading into a recession in early 2024, as everyone seemed to think, beating sales targets was key to reassuring investors that one’s business was somewhat recession-protected. So, despite companies beating earnings expectations at an even higher rate in Q3, stock prices fell as the top line struggled to keep up for a larger majority. But it turned out that no one actually cared because when the FOMC switched from a “hawkish” hold on rates in September to a “dovish” hold in October/November, that was all markets needed to hear. Back to the races, we were with the S&P, which is now surging over 16% from an October 27th low. If you’re noticing a trend here, you’ll see why we made the below decision in today’s Platinum Banana award—all eyes, ears, and keyboard clicks were on the Fed and what they will or won’t say next. In 2022, CPI prints and monthly jobs reports were right up there in importance, but by the time spring became summer in 2023, the utterances of FOMC members were all that mattered. Oh yeah, and speaking of the labor market, unemployment remains at a near 50-year low throughout it all. To many, this was the key factor in keeping the economy afloat in 2023. Americans don’t stop spending as long as they have their job, even as [credit card debt]() surges past the $1tn mark to record highs. And now, we find ourselves on the last trading day of 2023. As of now, GDP growth for the year is slated to outperform expectations rolling into the year, hitting as high as 4.9% in Q3… and shoutout to Taylor Swift and Beyonce for their concert tours that helped get us there. Q4 earnings szn is less than two weeks away, and we’ll get the final prints for 2023’s macro readings like jobs, inflation, and all that jazz throughout the month as well. As always, stay tuned, and cheers to 2024. What's Ripe PENN Entertainment (PENN) $26.60 (↑ 6.36% ↑) - I’m not sure how this thing can even begin to go up after being on the wrong side of the 2023 Platinum Banana award for the deal of the year, but I guess they’re getting hyped. I wonder why? - Turns out it’s because shareholders are storming the gates. Specifically, one really large shareholder has arrived and is now demanding board seats with the age-old goal of “enhancing shareholder value.” Nobody ever wants to just come out and say, “We’re gonna make the chart go up,” do they? - But that’s effectively what HG Vora Capital has said in their 13D filing, indicating an 18.5% ownership stake through common shares and swaps. They called shares “significantly undervalued” and are looking to get the firm more on the side of shareholders, leading to yesterday’s gains. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $148.76 (↑ 1.84% ↑) - Investors love a good all-out brawl, and now, that’s exactly what they’re getting from AMD and the rest of the semiconductor industry. - AMD continued to poke the bear yesterday, announcing a new graphics card set to be released on January 24th of next year. Hard to believe that’s only a month away, but investors are already pricing in the expected profits to come. What's Rotten Tesla (TSLA) $253.18 (↓ 3.16% ↓) - Maybe a solar flare to destroy all the technology on Earth is exactly what we need, especially now that the robots are officially on the attack. - Earlier this week, the world learned of a 2021 incident in which a Tesla factory employee at Giga Texas talked sh*t about a particular bot and got his *ss beat. Kidding; that’s not at all what happened, but the employee did get pinned by a Tesla bot, leaving a trail of blood in the factory, but reports say the two have since squashed the beef. - But this wasn’t the only alarm going off at Tesla today, and no, we’re not talking about the seatbelt alarm. Delivery numbers for Q4 are set to be released in the coming days, and with high hopes comes high anxiety. - Jitters are abounding with this crucial metric looming large into the new year, but we should have all the details by next week. Can’t wait. NeoGenomics (NEO) $16.79 (↓ 18.10% ↓) - “Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in 2021 anymore,” is what Dorothy would’ve said to her (objectively hideous) dog if she were a biotech investor in 2023, especially if she held shares in NeoGenomics. - Founded in 2002, NeoGenomics does a little bit of everything in biotech, primarily focused on cancer genetics diagnostic testing. Yesterday, a U.S. court in North Carolina ruled that NeoGenomics is barred from “making, using, selling, or offering for sale…” its personalized cancer treatment technology, called RaDaR assay. - No, I didn’t have a stroke while typing that, but apparently, RaDaR is too technically close to a patent serving a similar use case owned by Natera (NTRA, +1.34%). - This is where U.S. drug discovery and healthcare get especially dicey. It’d be nice if NeoGenomics could sell their own, as this would, in theory, treat more patients, but without solid patent protections for a given time, we might not see the treatment innovations U.S. biotech is famous for. A tough call, but I guess that’s what courts are for. Thought Banana Platinum Banana: Person of the Year The paparazzi is here, the red carpet has been rolled out, and now, we’re just waiting for this lucky winner to take the throne. Meanwhile, can someone please remind me who the hell “Taylor Swift” is? I don’t know, but apparently, some magazine called [Time]( stole our idea for a “Person of the Year,” but as far as we know, that award involves exactly zero bananas. Here, we’re not only giving out the biggest and best banana of the year but keep in mind this one is made of Platinum. Historically, we’ve been known to give out this coveted, prestigious, and highly sought-after award to some less-than-savory characters. No one has to think about how we gave 2021’s “CEO of the Year” to the biggest financial fraudster since Bernie Madoff in Sam Bankman-Fried (a.k.a. Scum Bag-Fraud), or how last year we put everyone to sleep by honoring Hershey CEO Michele Buck for f*cking up the least in 2022. "... last year we put everyone to sleep by honoring Hershey CEO Michele Buck ..." No, because now, we’ve made the same move that every company makes after an egregious f*ck up—rebrand and act like nothing happened. Because it turns out that CEOs are losers just trying to avoid their families (not that I can blame ‘em), so we had to expand the pool to all humans in 2023 and switched to The Daily Peel’s Person of the Year. Reports say that fistfights are breaking out in the street outside The Daily Peel Global Headquarters over who the lucky winner is. After all, this is the biggest financial award—and maybe award in general—for all of 2023. To end the bloodshed in the streets, let’s get right to it. The winner of the 2023 Platinum Banana for Person of the Year is… Jerome “JPow” Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States! Congratulations to JPow and the entire Powell family—I know this must be quite the honor. To the wise apes out there who are regular readers of The Daily Peel, however, this isn’t a surprise at all. Clearly, Powell discovered 2009 music at the beginning of this year and decided the answer to Rihanna’s famous question, “Who gon’ run this town tonight” was him. And, in financial markets, JPow is as him as they come. Now, it might seem like any given Fed Chair could be “Person of the Year” for financial markets every year, but Powell in 2023 was different. Actually, this “Time Magazine” did nominate Powell this year and even gave their copycat of our award to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in 2009. "... in financial markets, JPow is as him as they come." All year, markets have traded off two things: the rate of inflation and the Fed’s response to it. We can see this in recent weeks, especially as the simple addition of one word—“any,” in this case—in the December Fed statement lit up the year-end rally we’ve seen in stocks, bonds, and everything else. The same was true in 2022 when the goal of a “soft landing” first started getting thrown around, but now we know that JPow was calm, cool, and collected in bringing this plane into its final descent. We still haven’t touched down yet, as the man of the year said so himself, but every word, syllable, and change in tone out of the 70-year-old Grateful Dead diehard has moved markets. In years past, presidents, foreign actors, big-time CEOs, traders, and other market movers competed for the title, but this year, JPow was the only guy in town. We love him, we hate him, but as long as I still have a job and inflation doesn’t make my eggs like $9.76/carton again, we won’t get too fed up. Congrats, JPow. We’ll see you in 2024. The Big Question: Who are your top runners-up for the Person of the Year 2023 Platinum Banana award? What are your early predictions for next year? Best guesses will be featured in the New Year. Banana Brain Teaser Yesterday — Little Jon is playing with some Pokemon cards. His hit points stand like this: 100 out of 200. He has two cards that will heal him half of his current missing health each. If he uses both cards, how many hit points would he have left? Answer 175 out of 200 Today — I am compiling a world almanac, and it now contains lots of pages. I know that it takes 121 digits to print the page numbers in sequence. How many numbered pages does the book have, and how many times does the number 9 appear? Shoot us your guesses at vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com. Wise Investor Says “For me, a big, big party—and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets—is a really good inflation report.” — Jerome Powell How would you rate today’s Peel? [All the bananas](=) [Decent](=) [Rotten AF]() Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? [Be smart like your friend](). [ADVERTISE](=) // [WSO ALPHA]( // [COURSES]( // [LEGAL]( Don't want The Daily Peel? [Unsubscribe here](). Click to [Unsubscribe]( from ALL WSO content IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States