Amazon's Latest Competitor

TikTok’s e-commerce platform, creatively called “TikTok Shop,” has officially been launched in the U.S. [The Daily Peel... ]() September 22, 2023 | Peel #548 Silver banana goes to... [CapLinked. ]( In this issue of the Peel: - In the past three months, FOMC participant projections for real GDP growth have only stormed higher. - Splunk and FedEx had a ripe day, while Amazon and Broadcom closed in the red. - TikTok’s e-commerce platform, creatively called “TikTok Shop,” has officially been launched in the U.S. Market Snapshot Happy Friday, apes. Thanks for nothing, JPow. Even when this guy doesn’t ruin our dreams with further rate hikes, they still rise, and our portfolios still fall because he’s apparently a professional vibe killer. What happened to the money printer JPow?? Anyway, equity markets dumped on Thursday largely as investors had even more time to digest the Fed’s “hawkish hold.” Mega cap growth names led the tumble as the impact of a higher for longer rate environment sunk in, taking out their anger on long-duration assets. Not a single sector rose, and the Nasdaq led with a 1.82% fall. Treasuries had a similar day, largely selling off and leading yields to rip higher. The 10-year yield officially set yet another new high tick since 2007, which, as a reminder, is now 16 years ago, crossing over 4.5%. Meanwhile, the dollar was mostly flat to lower. Let’s get into it. Is Your VDR Turning Your Deals into Burning Man 2023? [image](=) Nothing slows down the momentum of a deal quite like a data room that is clunky, disorganized, and downright impossible to maneuver through. Just like driving out of Burning Man after a monsoon. And we all know trying to distribute pitch books or manage due diligence in certain legacy VDR providers is like trying to drive out of the flooded Playa in your top-of-the-line Jeep Sure, you’ve dropped a lot of cash, but your deal’s going nowhere, fast. With CapLinked, your VDR will never be the reason why your deal stops rolling towards the finish line thanks to features like… - Cutting-edge activity tracking gives you the insights you need to craft personalized, hyper-efficient follow-ups with targets. - Advanced Q&A functionality puts the Q&A stage of due diligence on autopilot. - Simple permissioning tools get decision-makers into your data room as quickly as possible. - Turbocharged upload speeds & 99.9 Uptime SLA. In fact, CapLinked is so committed to speeding up the deal-making process for clients, that they’re putting up new Enterprise clients in a supercar of their choice for the weekend. Yes, really. [Learn more.]( Banana Bits - Like Logan Roy never wanted to, Fox and News Corp founder and kingpin Rupert Murdoch officially [steps down as chairman](. - As far as reasons why tech IPOs haven’t been as exciting, CNBC might have [the answer](. - Canada and India [have beef](. The U.S. is trying to turn it into filet mignon. - Another $325mn to Ukraine [was approved](=) by the Biden administration yesterday as Zelensky is back in Washington. Macro Monkey Says Summary of Economic Problems *Projections; my bad for the above typo… Clearly, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and data release stole the show in terms of economic news for the week. Luckily for us, JPow and the gang were kind enough to give us their latest guesstimates on the direction of the economy. We discussed rates and the dot plot yesterday, but oh baby, there’s so much more. In their pursuit of displaying information in the ugliest way possible, the FOMC summarized their projections for… - Rates - Inflation - Unemployment and - GDP growth … along with other, slighter things in [this]() 17-page document seemingly designed to make you look away. So, let’s stare at it for as long as we can and see what we can find. "... let’s stare at it for as long as we can and see what we can find." For starters, the projection likely to have the most digression from June was real GDP growth. Check out the graph below: [image] [Source]() In the past three months, FOMC participant projections for real GDP growth have only stormed higher. Strangely enough, projections for PCE inflation to finish out 2023 have only increased as well. As real GDP growth follows the highly complex equation of “increase in GDP minus inflation,” we can only assume that the Fed is much more confident in the ability of the U.S. to not only avoid recession but to post strong growth. Much of the increase in PCE inflation can be attributed to energy, as Core PCE expectations moved lower. But what are you gonna do? Go out and not get gas? Good luck. Along with an increase in projections for GDP growth, expectations for unemployment continue to move in the right direction as well. Nearly every participant now expects to close out 2023 below 4%, whereas last SEP, they were expected anywhere between 4.0%-4.3%. It’s not much, but it’s “honest” work… and not bad news. In the longer run, the natural rate of unemployment remains projected to get up to that level, however. "... FOMC participants still see the labor market as far too strong ..." That could suggest that FOMC participants still see the labor market as far too strong, but with a labor force participation rate hovering well below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3%, this could rely far more on convincing people to get back to work rather than killing labor demand. With student loan repayments days from coming back online, maybe actually needing a real income will be the motivation the U.S. workforce needs. Still, the market sure didn’t digest this as good news. Equities sold off yesterday largely in response to the “hawkish hold,” as yesterday’s rate decision is now labeled as. All in all, there’s a lot of moving pieces pulling the economy and projections in all kinds of directions. What else is new? One thing we know is that the next FOMC meeting will be spooky, and potentially not just because it begins on Halloween. What's Ripe Splunk (SPLK) ↑ 20.77% ↑ - Boom, mic drop. The story of the day came early yesterday morning when we officially got word of the newly crowned largest acquisition of the year. - Cisco Systems, a networking equipment company that was arguably the king of the dot-com bubble, has just secured the above title with their planned $28bn acquisition of analytics and security firm Splunk. The smaller rival will be acquired at $157/sh., a ~31.3% premium to yesterday’s close. - The combination of these two will create an absolute unit in networking, security, data analytics, and basically anything else that runs your computer without you noticing it. - Cisco shares fell in response, as is normal for an acquirer… because they are deliberately overpaying for the asset. To use the worst and cringiest word in all of business, Cisco seems to see some… synergies. FedEx (FDX) ↑ 4.52% ↑ - One war that we all love is still alive and well, at least according to FedEx’s earnings report. Let the shipping wars rage—just get my stuff to me as cheaply as physically possible. - Analysts had estimated the company to earn $3.73/sh, so on the delivery of $4.55/sh, it’s safe to say investors were hyped. That was a huge 32% leap from last year. - The bankruptcy of Yellow Inc. earlier this year certainly helped customer acquisition. But at the same time, it turns out that the battle over wages at UPS allowed FedEx to swoop in and eat them up. What's Rotten Amazon (AMZN) ↓ 4.41% ↓ - Every stock looked like trash yesterday, but Amazon looked way more trash than others. Apparently, investors are gonna miss that classically horrific Alexa robot voice. - Basically, everything is looking ugly for Amazon coming into this Holiday season. The 4th quarter is generally the most important for this giant, but with the release of Bytedance’s TikTok Shop, higher energy costs, and a sh*t ton more workers to add going into the busy season, the whole “profit” thing is hard to get excited about. - Amazon also held a mini event to show off some changes to devices recently, which apparently also failed to get the job done. Lastly, allegedly to appease the FTC, the firm has decided against imposing a fee on merchants using non-Amazon delivery services, which is probably super monopolistic anyway. Broadcom (AVGO) ↓ 2.67% ↓ - In a perfect example of Mr. Market’s more reactive and emotional tendencies, Broadcom had quite an exciting day on Thursday. - Shares dove over 4% on open and fell further intraday before realizing that there was no reason for the harassment. Basically, reports swirled that Google planned to drop the semi-supplier from their line of AI chip makers “as early as 2027.” That caused a mini freakout, but Google quickly clarified. - As [first reported](=) by Barron, execs at the tech behemoth are “productively engaged with Broadcom and multiple other suppliers for the long term.” Almost immediately, shares turned higher with the rest of the market. Smooth. Thought Banana Exactly What We Need There are two things that Americans clearly and obviously needed more than anything else in the world: 1) To spend more money and 2) To spend more time on TikTok. Glad we could kill two birds with one stone. About a week or so ago, the short video platform mind-controlling the internet culture in our country went a step further. The firm’s e-commerce platform, creatively called “TikTok Shop,” has officially been launched in the U.S. "The firm’s e-commerce platform, creatively called 'TikTok Shop,' has officially been launched in the U.S." The idea of “algorithmic shopping” is new, but it also isn’t really. Amazon and Instagram have been recommending items based on your purchase and search history for a while now, but the idea of driving sales based on random short videos from TikTok is a fresh one. Users will literally be able to tap directly on items shown in videos and purchase them on the spot with no redirections necessary. As convenient and financially destructive as it may be for consumers, it’ll only be the former for creators. More easily linking up with brands, selling merchandised or self-made products, and the overall promotional benefit of being able to sell so directly are three of many creators’ favorite things. It’s a bold bet, to say the least. For me, Instagram is my personal shopper, but most social platforms suck at trying to sell your sh*t. TikTok’s sheer popularity and addictive personality should help. Plus, you already kind of feel like a scumbag when you open up the app anyway, huh? "It’s a bold bet, to say the least." It’ll be interesting to see how the launch plays out on the newly massive platform that grabs more attention from young people than almost any other media platform, and unless you own shares of Bytedance, I’m not really sure how we can lazily make money off of it. Stay tuned, though. We might figure it out. The big question: How successful will TikTok Shop be in the U.S.? How badly will consumers want to buy items right off the platform? Banana Brain Teaser Yesterday — Always old, sometimes new. Never sad, sometimes blue. Never empty, sometimes full. Never pushing, always pulling. What am I? Answer: The Moon Today — Can you find a color in the following sentence? "You'll find I got it elsewhere." Shoot us your guesses at vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says “Activity is the enemy of investment returns.” — Warren Buffett How would you rate today’s Peel? [All the bananas](=) [Decent](=) [Rotten AF]() Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? [Be smart like your friend.]() [ADVERTISE](=) // [WSO ALPHA]() // [COURSES]( // [LEGAL](=) Don't want The Daily Peel? [Unsubscribe here](. Click to [Unsubscribe]( from ALL WSO content IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States