Oprah’s Job Market

[The Daily Peel... ](=) Dec 5, 2022 | Peel #351 Market Snapshot Happy Monday, apes. Although it is currently a Monday morning, we’re officially less than three weeks out from Christmas day, and I just hope that’s enough motivation for us all to make it there together. Earnings season is slowing down, but it’ll be an exciting week leading up to the Fed meeting and the CPI report coming due next week. For now, let’s sit tight. Enjoy the good vibes while we can. Let’s get into it. [image] If You Want to Work in PE, You Need to Understand LBOs [image]( If you heard “walk me through an LBO” in an interview tomorrow, how would you answer? If a long pause followed by some bullsh*t explanation is the best you got, we have a course for you. Understanding LBOs is essential for working in Private Equity. But these things are complicated to get your head around—knowing the implications of leverage, modeling IRR, and other intricacies take time to learn. That’s why we created the WSO LBO Modeling Course. Through interactive video lessons that contain sample models from well-known companies like Nike, you’ll lock down key concepts that’ll be relevant to an IB analyst gig. Since we know Peel readers will get a ton out of the course, we’re also giving out free access to our Excel Modeling Course for the first 50 Peel readers to sign up for the LBO course in the next 24 hours. Yup, we’re not kidding—learn how to model an LBO, then slice and dice it in Excel, or the price of one course. Other candidates are brushing up on their skills as we speak, and you can’t afford to wait. [Sign up today](=) and be on your way to making it rain in IB. Banana Bits - OPEC+ gives the U.S. a fat middle finger as it agreed yesterday to [maintain planned production cuts](=) - The EU is [big mad]() at the U.S. over fresh climate laws - That rail strike we talked about? Big Dawg Biden [kicks it to the curb](=) - David Morris at CoinDesk is a hero and [broke down SBF’s scumbaggery]() like a balance sheet that FTX didn’t have Macro Monkey Says Oprah Winfrey’s Job Market Someone must’ve given Oprah the keys to the economy because, in 2022, everyone’s getting a job. Compared to the cars she usually gives away, getting a job is pretty lame, but it is helpful with, you know, eating and living and sh*t like that. But still, despite a job’s ability to generally prevent starvation and homelessness, Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants Oprah and her free-wheeling labor market to settle down. The 263,000 jobs added in November is a tough scene in JPow’s eyes. [image] [image] Moreover, economists were once again wildly wrong with their forecast for 200,000 jobs added last month, a >30% miss. We don’t expect much from these poor, sweet econ nerds, but are they even trying anymore?? Anyway, the market had a relatively muted reaction to November’s jobs report. In the “good news is bad news and bad news is good news” macro environment we’ve been living in since C-19 showed up, this report and reaction fit right in. Adding more jobs than expected is usually a positive sign, but nowadays, all it does is give JPow more firepower to demolish your portfolio with another potential 75bp rate hike. And that’s very likely why the market acted like nothing happened on Friday. Balancing the combination of solid job growth with a now-higher likelihood of a 75bp hike seems to have led to a flat day overall. More broadly, this job report also showed basically no change in employment participation. The labor force participation rate of 62.1% and the employment-to-population ratio of 59.9% stayed basically unchanged, along with the 3.7% unemployment rate. And like pretty much every month since May 2020, leisure and hospitality jobs led the way, racking up 88,000 additions in November. However, there is one aspect of the 2022 labor market that’s a mild positive in JPow’s eyes. The average monthly job growth of 392,000 seen this year is a major step down from that of 562,000 observed in 2021. A win is a win, right? Maybe, maybe not; who knows? Either way, getting back to the 63-64% range of labor force participation we had before 2020 ruined everyone’s lives for a bit is still a long way away. With that being JPow’s priority, don’t expect sunshine and rainbows to be bursting out of the Fed’s next meeting. Meme of the Day [image] [Source]( What's Ripe UiPath ($PATH) ↑ 12.46% ↑ - Future Skynet competitor UiPath closed in tremendous fashion last week, gaining 12.5% on a pretty mid-earnings report. - Revenue and ARR beat, yet the firm’s EPS loss of $0.10 came in roughly twice as deep as the Street was expecting. Still, for any company lately, the only earnings numbers that analysts care about are next quarter’s. - That is exactly why we saw a double-digit single-day rise on Friday after the firm gave Q4 sales guidance of $277mn. What were expectations, you ask? [$276.9mn](. Enphase Energy ($ENPH) ↑ 7.01% ↑ - Shares in the electric-everything company were charged up on Friday, gaining 7% and hitting a fresh all-time high thanks to their newfound friend, the U.S. Commerce Department. - Per the WSJ, the Commerce Department is going full Sherlock Holmes on renewable energy firms out of China due to *alleged* tariff circumvention. - Basically, the U.S. government is cutting down Enphase’s competition for them. Shareholders woke up not expecting much to find themselves at all-time highs near the end of the day. We’ll take it. What's Rotten Zscaler ($ZS) ↓ 10.73% ↓ - After trading as much as 8% higher going into Thursday’s earnings report, Zscaler shares tumbled right back down to where they started. - Overall, the numbers were not disgustingly bad. Full FY forecasts, including earnings of $1.23-$1.25/sh on sales of $1.53bn, were right in line with expectations. - But masochistic Wall Street doesn’t want to be right - they want to be beat, badly. And if you don’t beat the Street, the Street will beat you, sending shares down well over 10% on the day. Asana ($ASAN) ↓ 10.45% ↓ - For Asana, losing 3/4th of its value already in 2022 wasn’t enough. The workflow management provider decided it’s gonna live on the edge, shedding another 10% to close last week. - Yup, you guessed it. Weak sales guidance and a growing EPS loss of $0.26 carried far more weight in the firm’s latest report than the other pretty-decently-okayish numbers they posted in Q3’23, like 47% YoY sales growth from the U.S. - Also, f*ck companies like this whose fiscal year’s don’t align with calendar years. Certainly does not help, considering we can already barely remember what year it is. Data Peel Labor Force Participation Rate, 2000-2022 [image] [Source]( Thought Banana The Most Wonderful Time of The Year No, not because the Holiday season is right around the corner or anything, but because the real best holiday in the world already came and went. Everyone that’s cool reading this already knows, but for the Apple Music weirdos out there, last week we were blessed with 2022’s Spotify Wrapped. And yes, okay, we’re a little late on this, I know. But there were some mildly more important things to talk about at the time. With Russia not invading another country or anything and little other groundbreaking stories this weekend, let’s have some fun today. 2021 was marked by Olivia Rodrigo’s bursting onto the scene and Lil Nas X’s creeping the hell out of, well, everyone. In 2022, however, Bad Bunny put on an absolute clinic. Let’s take a look at some superlatives: - Most Streamed Artist: Bad Bunny (18.5bn streams) - Most Streamed Song: As It Was by Harry Styles (1.6bn streams) - Most Streamed Album: Un Verano Sin Ti by Bad Bunny - Most Popular Podcast: The Joe Rogan Experience See what I mean? 18.5bn streams is an utterly ridiculous number, enough for every single person on the planet to have streamed a Bad Bunny song more than 2.3 times. Even wilder - As It Was’s 1.6bn streams and 2.7833-minute runtime means that one song alone was played for ~4.45bn minutes. That’s equivalent to 8,473 years of listening…and it was only released in April. While Harry, Bad Bunny, and others like Taylor Swift, Eminem, and BTS continue to dominate year after year, some slightly more…uh…out of ordinary trends emerged too. Some of my favorites include: - A 1,400% increase this summer in the use of the phrase “Little Miss” in playlist titles - A 205% increase in the same thing but with the phrase “They’re a 10 but…” - A 620% increase in streams of Spotify’s “Country Wedding” playlist - 520,000 additions of the song It’s Corn by Tariq on user playlists - A 400% increase in the search term “Daily Affirmations” than last year (y’all good out there??) As you can see, 2022 was an interesting year, to say the absolute very least. If you want to see more stats, Spotify’s got the whole rundown [right here](), and even you freaks on Tidal or Apple Music, or some sh*t can read it. The big question: What artist, song, and/or out-of-pocket trends will run the music streaming game in 2023? Banana Brain Teaser Friday — Arnold Schwarzenegger has a long one. Michael J. Fox has a short one. Madonna does not use hers. Bill Clinton always uses his. The Pope never uses his. What is it? Their last name. Today — It’s 50 bananas off the [WSO's LBO Modeling Course](=) for the first 10 respondents. LFG! What Dolly Parton song reminded us we need work-life balance 73mn+ times this year? (Courtesy of Spotify) Shoot us your guesses at [vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) with the subject line “Banana Brain Teaser” or simply [click here to reply!](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) Wise Investor Says “If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you.” — Stanley Druckenmiller How would you rate today’s Peel? [image](=) [image](=) [image](=) [All the bananas]() [Decent]() [Rotten AF](=) Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? 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