Second Half Scaries

Market Snapshot On this last day of June, futures pointed sharply lower. Yesterday rounded out a rough first six months for most markets of all kinds. It was actually the worst start to a calendar year for the Nasdaq in its history, and the S&P and Dow haven’t been this abused in the first six months of the year in 50 years. At the closing bell, the Dow was down 0.82%, the Nasdaq lost 1.33%, and the S&P dumped 0.88%. Looking to springboard your career into venture capital? Learn everything you need to know about cap tables, term sheets, due diligence, venture fund structure, and more from elite VCs with successful track records in WSO’s [VC Course](=). Let’s get into it. Banana Bits - Justice Breyer announces his retirement, and [KBJ]( finally steps up in historic fashion - Wells Fargo CEO doesn’t think you and I are ready for [this jelly](=) and/or rate hikes - Sometimes the economy isn’t data-driven; it’s [purely psychological]() - The Venture space is fast-paced and exciting; do you have [what it takes](=)? - Hell of a year; yesterday ended the [most bruising start]() to a calendar year in decades for markets Banana Brain Teaser Yesterday — What is exactly your size in terms of height and stature, but doesn’t weigh anything? Your shadow. Today — For today’s BBT, we will slash 150 bananas off of our [VC Course](=) for the first 15 respondents with the correct answer. I go across countries, over mountains, and down hills, but I never move. What am I? Shoot us your guesses at [vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) with the subject line “Banana Brain Teaser” or simply [click here to reply!](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) Macro Monkey Says Inflation Won’t Die? — I would argue that a huge reason why we are where we are is inflation. First, the Fed and the Treasury both argued that inflation was transitory, hoping that price stability would magically appear without aggressive tightening or consumer softening. Next, we all recognized that Daddy JPow and Aunt Jannie were wholly incorrect. Did you see that the price of even Arizona Iced Tea has gone up 30%?! After finally admitting that inflation was a big deal, things went from bad to worse. The “peak inflation” argument after our first 8+% CPI print turned out to be wrong, and our most recent headline CPI number at 8.6% ushered in a historic rate hike: a magical 75 bps gift from Daddy JPow to us all. In theory, this was akin to Federal Reserve virtue signaling; the FOMC really needs us to believe they’re serious about tamping down our runaway prices. To make matters worse, the story that I waited an entire year to see written finally dropped this week: my 4th of July BBQ is going to be 17% more expensive this year. After getting a 16-cent (not percent) discount in 2021, a 17% increase is a real kick in the wallet, but these Wagyu steakburgers aren’t going to grill themselves this weekend. Right now, prices aren’t stable. Inflation is still a thing, regardless of past rate hikes. The Fed is working on some demand destruction, but that doesn’t happen overnight. Here’s your chance to call me out in mid-October. My prediction is as follows: Regardless of continued aggressive tightening, inflation is going to move sideways for the next few months. Prices will remain elevated and probably never come back down. Gas is going to be almost $6 by the end of the summer, and unemployment will remain near historic lows. If I’m wrong, please let me have it. Email us and talk trash about your prediction being better than mine, or sh*t talk me on our website. We love a good back and forth. My point is this: I think we are closer to driving towards new market lows and creating new inflation highs than we are to a summer 2021 C19-vaxx-fueled running of the S&P bulls. But this is just one man’s opinion, and I could definitely be wrong here. Springboard Your Career [image]() Excited about getting in on the ground floor of the next big idea before it hits the mainstream? If you’re looking for an exciting career and searching for outsized returns for the next revolutionary concept or product, VC is the place to be. Springboard your career into venture capital with WSO’s VC Course. Get hands-on experience from over 100 lessons that will help you master cap table modeling and term sheets like a pro VC. Learn from experienced industry experts with proven track records to [position yourself for success]() in a career in VC. What's Ripe Northrop Grumman ($NOC) — Well, as the war in Ukraine rages on, so does our unquenchable thirst for sending aid. As we said about six weeks ago, Defense stonks might be a solid place to park some money in this down market. Analysts have argued that $NOC is a nice buy at current levels. Yesterday, shares climbed 3.60%. Costco ($COST) — Shares of the big box membership-required megaretailer had a decent first few months of the year, and then May rolled around. Weak guidance and a softening consumer have really hurt the retailer since. Shares of $COST gained ground yesterday, rebounding another 2.01% on a down day for most of the market. What's Rotten Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA) — Here’s another case of the numbers not telling the whole story. Shares of $WBA declined yesterday, even after the company reported revenues and EPS numbers that beat analysts’ estimates. Inflation is eating away the money in your wallet, and Walgreen’s guidance reflects this sentiment. Shares of $WBA lost 7.27% yesterday. Banks ($JPM, $GS) — Kind of hard to watch some of these big boys lose money in a rising rates financial environment. As we’ve been saying, typically, these types of banks make more money as rates go up. However, as deal flow slows, some of the big investment banks tend to have this component of their business slow down. Yesterday, $JPM was down 2.33%, and $GS lost 2.06%. Thought Banana 3Q Scaries — A lot has changed in the last six months. My pandemic diet continues even after a Tonal subscription and bringing in a Peloton, but I’m not just talking about my waistline. The most profitable trade this calendar year has been the energy trade. NatGas is trading near all-time highs, more than doubling in value. In December 2021, if you had invested in NatGas futures at $3.76 per million Btu, that investment would now be over $8 if you can believe it. Most NatGas consumer-facing suppliers update their prices seasonally, so this hasn’t been completely passed to the public just yet. You wait; this winter’s heating costs are going to be through the roof. If you’re in Europe, it’ll be even worse, as you’re probably kicking the tires on the ole “clean coal” plants to keep warm. Oil is in a similar boat. In barrel terms, WTI Crude went from $76.99 on the first of the year to above $120 and is now trading near $110. This is almost a 50% increase. Like clockwork, the $XLE ETF has climbed higher, gaining almost 30% in the same time period. The price of gas is probably my favorite headline. In January, the average price was $3.41 a gallon. It also “gained” 50%, but it turns out that these aren’t the gains you want to see for your portfolio or in the gym. Our big loser for the year so far is clearly the Nasdaq. If you’ve been following the news, you’ve seen excessive valuation compression for unhealthy companies and significant compression for some of the great ones. No one in between was safe from this haircut. The Q’s ($QQQ) is down something like 30% YTD. If you’re more into $SPY or $DIA and you’re only down 20% or 15%, respectively, you’re probably somewhat happy. At the end of the day, things could be worse. What once were considered mega-cap tech growth names have become mega-value names. Growth for the sake of growth has died on the vine, and software-as-a-service has fallen from grace in today’s market. Can these trends continue in the third quarter? Well, I don’t give financial advice, but I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. I always joke about the Sunday Scaries; it’s one of my favorite millennial concepts. But right now, I have the third quarter scaries. I’m excited to kick off another quarter, but I’m nervous for the roller coaster to come. Wise Investor Says “Your net worth to the world is usually determined by what remains after your bad habits are subtracted from your good ones.” — Ben Franklin Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up for the WSO Daily Peel [here](. [ADVERTISE]( // [WSO ALPHA]() // [COURSES](=) // [LEGAL](=) Don't want The Daily Peel? [Unsubscribe here](. Click to [Unsubscribe]( from ALL WSO content IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353