Snap Crackled and Popped

Market Snapshot Futures yesterday morning indicated that Monday’s rally might have just been a fluke and that the sell-off would continue. Tuesday was a bit of a roller coaster of a day. The 10-yr closed at 2.765% after trading as low as 2.71%. BTC and ETH seem to be trapped below 30k and 2k, respectively. WTI Crude is still hovering at $110/barrel, and gold remained steady. At the closing bell, the Dow was up slightly, a mere 0.15%. The S&P and Nasdaq both lost ground yesterday, down 0.81% and 2.35%. For today’s BBT, we will make WSO's [VC Course]() available for 100 ‘naners off the sticker price for the first 15 respondents with the correct answer. Let’s get into it. Banana Bits - Late 2021 was a great time to be an American consumer, [survey shows](=) - [Gas prices]( continue to climb, breaking more records - [COVAX sales](), once through the roof, now have plateaued - A rising tide lifts all boats, and that’s what a good [corporate training platform]( can do for your team - Well, it’s not the apocalypse, but it is a potential [food shortage]() for a huge chunk of the world Banana Brain Teaser The answer to yesterday’s Brain Teaser was one of two answers: the water was so low that the dog could cross on land, or the water was frozen. For today’s BBT, I will unlock WSO's [VC Course]() for 100 bananas off the sticker price for the first 15 respondents with the correct answer. Let’s go, Apes: You walk into a hotel room. There’s a lighter, a candle, an oil lamp, and a fireplace. The room is completely dark. You want to see, but there’s no electricity. What do you light first? Shoot us your guesses at [vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) with the subject line "Banana Brain Teaser" or simply [click here to reply!](mailto:vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com?subject=Banana%20Brain%20Teaser) Macro Monkey Says Rate hikes, then what? — Today’s Macro Monkey is essentially a thought experiment for those of you who are more macro-inclined. Today, we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting; before this revelation, the Peel has some questions it would like to ponder with its readers. - The balance sheet: the Fed’s balance sheet remains bloated, and the announced unwinding after the last FOMC meeting was not as aggressive as previously thought. Will we hear more about this, and will a more heated unwind affect stonks? - 75 bps: will a 75 bps hike be on the table in the future if inflation does not temper as expected? What would a 75 bps rate hike mean for growth valuations? - Demand destruction: rate hikes and a balance sheet unwind for the Fed attack the demand side of the equation. What happens if the supply side cannot catch up? The Fed is (allegedly) non-partisan, and they definitely don’t have legislative powers to fix supply challenges. In the event that the supply side remains, well, on the struggle bus, who can save us besides Daddy JPow? - An adversarial Fed: it’s pretty unlikely that the Fed cares about stonks. Your precious Robinhood account means nothing to OG Daddy JPow. But how adversarial is the Fed? If they’re willing to absolutely crush stonks, that is also a willingness to crush teachers’ unions’ pension funds and retirement accounts for the middle class too. That won’t be popular, but might it be necessary? - The road to perdition: How did we get here? There are still many opinions about how we ended up in the most aggressive inflationary environment in over 40 years, and most of these opinions are tainted with political rhetoric. If hindsight is really 20/20, when will we have that benefit? Looking at you, Andrew Ross Sorkin, to deliver us another retrospective masterpiece. After today’s minutes release, the next FOMC meeting is in three weeks. I think we can probably expect another 50 bps rate hike in June. That being said, we will continue with the rate hikes, but then what? Train with the Pros [image]( Knowledge of the fundamentals of financial modeling and the tools required to do it effectively is critical in this industry. The Wall Street Oasis Corporate Training Program can give your team an edge. We have flexible delivery options, offering online, in-person, or a hybrid venue for world-class instruction from seasoned, talented instructors. Let’s work together to tailor an elite training program for your people to get them the knowledge they need in today’s demanding environment. [Train with the Pros]() What's Ripe Autoparts ($ORLY, $AZO) — Autozone reported earnings yesterday morning, and the Street generally liked what it heard. They beat net income estimates by almost 20%, posting solid earnings for their most recent quarter. At the end of the day, $AZO was up 5.82%. Rumor has it that $ORLY is up based on insider buying activity, but I think that’s bull. Generally, these two names trade together. Good for them, on $AZO’s beat, shares of $ORLY moved higher by 5.02%. Zoom ($ZM) — In all honesty, Zoom’s most recent quarter was good. Yesterday their share price experienced a strong pop on good numbers from their earnings call. That being said, Zoom is now back to its pre-C-19 February 2020 levels. The stock is down 50% year-to-date, and it’s about $450 bucks off of its all-time high of $559. Here’s another irony: if you liked $ZM in the mid-500s, you might not like it much in the mid-90s. After some decent earnings news, shares of $ZM closed up 5.61%. What's Rotten Snap Inc ($SNAP) — If you thought losing money in crypto was easy, try social media companies. Shares of $SNAP, the company that brought you shame-free no-strings-attached photo sharing, lost 43.44% on Tuesday. Yesterday’s crash puts their share price below that of their IPO. Yikes! The company gave a “macroeconomic warning,” something that we have been ringing the bell about here at the DP for at least three months. Snap’s leadership believes that it won’t be able to deliver even at the low end of its current guidance. This is intriguing because it uses adjusted EBITDA, an already made up metric, as its scorecard. If you liked Snap at like $60 a share, you’ve gotta love it at $12, right? Cruises ($RCL, $CCL, $NCL) — Once dubbed floating petri dishes here at the Daily Peel, cruise ships are an interesting experience. If you enjoy being in a sort of geographic purgatory while seeing the same people every day, cruises are a good idea for your vacation habits. If you’re not into cruises, kind of like Wall Street yesterday, you might short the cruise lines. If you did, you woulda been a big-time winner yesterday. Bank of America slashed their price targets for $CCL and $NCL Monday morning before opening, and I guess this is somewhat of a delayed reaction. Yesterday these stonks got their noses bloodied. Carnival was down 10.30%, Norwegian shed 11.99%, and Royal Caribbean lost 10.20%. Thought Banana DCA — A few weeks ago, we ran a quote about investing in a bear market: You make most of your money in a bear market; you just don’t realize it at the time. This tidbit of wisdom from Shelby M.C. Davis is categorically true, particularly during drawn-out periods of time when equities trade at a discount. Buying stonks at all-time highs is not really something I’m into. Sure, my total portfolio value has taken a haircut this calendar year, but this is really an opportunity. For those of us with a considerable time horizon, until we need to spend our hard-earned, smartly invested bananas, a sharp downturn in the stock market is basically a firesale. If you put your money into solid companies that will continue to put up strong revenues and earnings in the future, you’ll eventually generate some outsized returns. These returns just don’t happen overnight. Many of you are familiar with the term dollar-cost averaging. Purchasing shares of a particular asset or ticker symbol at a specified time increment can help limit the impact of short-term volatility on your purchase price and, in turn, your returns. Think about it. When you’re purchasing shares of Amazon or Nvidia at a deep discount during a bear market, when their valuations eventually correct to some crazy forward P/E multiple, you’ve lowered your average cost per share by sticking with your convictions even in a down market. Timing the market is really, really hard. Catching a falling knife without chopping off your little, er, fingies is also really, really hard. I don’t give financial advice - but we don’t recommend playing with sharp objects. You could get hurt. A small fraction of Americans plans to increase their investment contributions this calendar year, less than a fifth. You could be a part of this portion of wise investors who are buying shares when they’re on sale. Wise Investor Says “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Ben Franklin Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up for the WSO Daily Peel [here](. 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