Support And Sanctions

Inside Ukraine and out... Silver Banana goes to... [image]() Market Snapshot So… that was weird, right? Russia is and has been invading Ukraine as we speak, but equity markets couldn’t have cared less yesterday. Traders have been shaking in their portfolios in anticipation, and then when Russia actually invaded, Wall Street acts like it’s a free money party. Markets are weird. Anyway, for some random reason, the Nasdaq popped 3.34%, while the S&P rose 1.50%, and the Dow gained 0.28%. Skillful's cohort-based Sprints are all built and led by mentors who work at top companies like Netflix, DoorDash and Instacart. Their Sprints are the best way to level up, get interview prep and build relationships. All with people who actually have the jobs you want. [Sign up here]() Let’s get into it. Macro Monkey Says War In Europe — Yes, this was the title of every single article you read yesterday, but here at the Daily Peel, we’re all about recap and getting you apes up to speed. Let’s take a look at what went down yesterday, inside Ukraine and out. First and foremost, shoutout to all the apes in Ukraine. We sincerely hope all of you and your families are staying safe and secure during these horrendous times. I wish I could go fistfight Putin myself, but until then, hopefully, we can add some sunlight to your day as you go through this. Let’s start with what’s happening on the ground. Russia has continued its invasion, primarily targeting “military installations,” which is, of course, an incredibly broad turn, so who knows. All signs indicate the Red Army is heading for the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv. Cyberattacks on key Ukrainian facilities, banks, and other economically important institutions also seem to be a popular choice. However, this isn’t done without protest. No, I’m not talking about those worthless petitions that say, “Tell Putin to stop!” but Russian citizens going out and protesting their own military’s actions, leading to over 1,500 arrests (so far). Outside Ukraine, support and sanctions are once again the names of the game. Yesterday, Biden and other Western leaders announced more expansive sanctions against oligarchs and banks, primarily. Effectively, this results in the cutoff of these individuals and banks from the U.S. dollar and western economy. Moreover, the U.S. is now sanctioning 24 Belarusian nationals for their support of the Russian invasion efforts. Europe and other allies are following a similar playbook, sanctioning everyone and everything they can in hopes that being starved out from the Western economy adds enough pressure that Putin pulls back. Good luck. Other non-military actions have been proposed, with one, in particular, that sounds pretty wild. The U.S. and allied nations are debating a full-scale technological block of all Russian IP addresses. Essentially, this would block all Russian internet users from interacting with anyone outside of Russia, kind of like the reverse of China’s Great Firewall. Basically, China’s Great Wall makes it really hard to access technologies on their network. While this is certainly an issue, the problem utterly disappears when you are a part of [Skillful’s cohort-based Sprint](). Of course, gold and oil traders were going wild. Having seemingly no idea what to do, both assets bounced around like they were in a heavy metal mosh pit all day. Brent, the international oil benchmark, rose past $100/bbl for the first time since 2014 and peaked at just below $106. Gold is shooting up too. Unlike digital gold (as you’ll see below), real gold is actually a safe haven asset that investors pour into in times of uncertainty. With the ongoing war combined with whatever the f*ck the Fed is doing, the shiny rock has soared as well recently, peaking at the same time today as oil at a level of around $1,976/oz. If you want a fun market to watch during these crazy times, commodities might be the way to go. Sure, equities are cool, but it seems like they just do the exact opposite of whatever is actually predicted. Break Into Tech With Skillful [image]() It's hard to break into tech if you don't have the right network. The workaround? Skillful's cohort-based Sprints are all built and led by mentors who work at top companies like Netflix, DoorDash and Instacart. Their Sprints are the best way to level up, get interview prep and build relationships. All with people who actually have the jobs you want. Their March cohort is filling up. [Sign up]() to receive a priority application link for remaining spots. What's Ripe Moderna ($MRNA) — Never failing to amaze, Moderna killed it on yesterday’s earnings report. Shares were duly rewarded with a 15.1% jump after the biotech celebrity delivered four quarters of consecutive profit with Q4 results clobbering estimates. EPS clocked in at $11.29 vs. $9.90 expected on $7.2bn in revenue, while the Street was only looking for $6.7bn. But then again, $17.7bn of 2021’s $18.5bn in revenue was vaccine sales. Moderna did raise guidance and hinted at a booster targeting both Delta and Omicron. But yeah, this company definitely missed the c-virus and its era. Nikola ($NKLA) — How much crazier could this week get? First, there’s war in Europe, and now we’re writing about Nikola in What’s Ripe… on purpose. Strange times, apes. Anyway, the (formerly?) scam EV company with the disgraced CEO and founder reported Q4 earnings yesterday, much to Wall Street’s satisfaction, evident from the shares gaining 17.7%. The narrower than expected loss of $0.23/sh vs. $0.32/sh expected was great, but the company also announced plans to deliver (and I’m not joking) 300-500 trucks in 2022. Right now, estimates say that Nikola’s semis will sell for $270k. Quick math says that means revenue of $81mn to $135mn. That roughly equates to a current valuation of ~30x next year’s sales… Not exactly cheap, huh? What's Rotten Barclays ($BCS) — Business is booming at Barclays. The British bank beat expectations and more than tripled its annual profit, but shares still got absolutely rekt yesterday, shedding 7.5% by close. Why? Well, banks are weird. It’s not all about top line and bottom line for these guys, as analysts tend to focus on ratios that are key to banks due to the nature of the banking business. Basically, all of these key ratios fell compared to Q3, which isn’t already. But to cap it off, a major management change ensued, partly due to the previous CEO’s super sus relationship with, erm… Jeffrey Epstein. So… yeah… Booking.com ($BKNG) — We can confirm that Booking.com today is in fact not Booking.yeah. Shares, along with fellow travel stocks, tumbled yesterday, losing 7.1%. It turns out that war isn’t too great for the travel industry. Who would’ve thought? But the firm also reported earnings on Wednesday. Revenue more than doubled, and EPS came in at $15.80 vs. $13.50 expected, which is pretty sick considering the stock was operating at a loss a year ago. Obviously, this wasn’t enough to save the day, however. Maybe don’t report on the first day of a potentially major war next time? Rookie mistake. Thought Banana “diGiTaL GoLd” — Anything that sounds too good to be true generally is. We’ve all heard this trope before, whether in investing or just life in general. Well, when you hear that there’s a new, digital, and totally uncorrelated asset class that can give you protection against market downturns and inflation, doesn’t that sounds too good to be true? Yes, it does. And that was a primary promise of BTC and other digital currencies during their pre-pubescent years. Now, as they grow up, it’s pretty clear that the “inflation protection” or “uncorrelated asset” claims are almost as garbage as the SEC’s attempt to regulate the industry. We are literally in the perfect economic, market, and geopolitical scenario for BTC to absolutely take off under its original thesis. But at the time of writing, BTC is down 18% in just the past week, and others like ETH are down over 20%. What is going on? BTC maxis, please avert your eyes, but it’s become clear the original thesis is wrong. That’s not to say BTC, digital currencies, and blockchains have no benefit to offer (because they absolutely 100% do), just that those benefits do not necessarily include inflation and downside protection. I mean, just look at BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. If it was truly uncorrelated, the number would be close to -1, or at least negative, but BTC’s correlation, in fact, sits at 0.33 with the S&P and 0.54 with the Nasdaq. So not exactly uncorrelated. It seems that BTC more strongly resembles any old risk asset. Of course, this comes with about a million caveats. BTC, and all of the digital currency space, is still very young, totally unregulated, and most boomers don’t even think it’s a real asset. As a bonafide moron, I’ll be the first to tell you this could all be different a year from now. But if you’re licking your lips at this “digital gold” for downside or inflation protection, maybe go look for some shiny rocks. Wise Investor Says “Madness is rare in individuals — but in groups, parties, nations, and ages it is the rule.” — Peter Thiel Happy Investing, Patrick & The Daily Peel Team Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up for the WSO Daily Peel [here](. [ADVERTISE](=) // [WSO ALPHA](=) // [COURSES](=) // [LEGAL](=) Don't want The Daily Peel? [Unsubscribe here](. Click to [Unsubscribe]( from ALL WSO content Wall Street Oasis (IB Oasis Corp.) 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States