💡 Would You Rather: Trade School Or College?

Gen Z is, like, straight up not having a good time… April 2, 2024 | Peel #679 Silver Banana goes to... [CapLinked. ]() In this issue of the Peel: - 🤯 U.S. GDP accelerated at an annualized rate of 5.1% in Q4. - 🤔 Google gets caught doing illegal things, but its stock price goes up? - 😔 Gen Z is, like, straight up not having a good time… Market Snapshot 📸 = Banana Bits 🍌 - U.S. markets had their [best start]() to a year since 2019 - From the Mag 7 to the Fab 4—U.S. market concentration [heats up](=) - Data security company Rubrik [files to go public]() - Apple is (allegedly) putting its cash hoard to use, considering an acquisition of [AI search engine Perplexity](=) Swipe Right on Caplinked: Your Perfect Match Still stuck with your old VDR? Time to ditch your current shitty relationship and swipe right on Caplinked. Think of it as the badass dating app for your deal-making game. Say 'hell yes' to deals that close faster than your ex can text back. Caplinked isn’t just another pretty face; it's got the brains too—unmatched security, slick interface, and the kind of performance that makes every transaction a victory lap. Ready to stop messing around with the rest and get serious with the best? [Upgrade to Caplinked.]() It’s time to fall hard for your VDR again. Macro Monkey Says 🐒 Q4 GDP revisions There are few better feelings than walking into a room and thinking, “Wow, I beat the sh*t out of everybody in here.” Or so I’m told, as I’m usually on the opposite end of that spectrum. But I’d have to imagine that being even more jacked than you thought you were is an even better feeling. Like, imagine thinking you max out at 3 reps of benching 225lbs. Then, you lay down and rip 5 reps like an absolute beast. Well, that’s basically what the U.S. economy did in Q4. We already knew the U.S. was the most jacked person in the room, but it turns out we were even more jacked last year than we thought. Let’s get into it. The Numbers U.S. GDP accelerated at an annualized rate of 5.1% in Q4, which translated to a real GDP acceleration of 3.4% for the same period. [Source](=) That translates to a real GDP increase for all of 2023 of 2.5%, growing substantially higher than the 1.9% growth seen in 2022. Total U.S. output, therefore, sat at $27.96tn in 2023, an increase of $346.9bn from 2022 and $12.4bn from the previous estimate. This is the third and final measure of U.S. GDP for Q4 and, as such, for all of 2023. So, the numbers are in, and they’re even better than what we previously thought. Shout out to you guys and every other consumer for the increase, as higher levels of consumer spending than previously measured drove the increase, meaning we donated even more to the economy. What a charitable group—good for you, apes. [Source]( As we can see above, it really was your donations that contributed the most to accelerated growth in 2023. Retail trade grew the most in real terms, at 0.58%, for the year, indicating a happy and healthy consumer. The bad part is, for us at least, the finance and insurance sector led the way lower. That’s gotta be why it’s been so tough to land return offers and other jobs for us huh… if only there was a [way to fix that](. But overall, this report adds yet another feather to the cap of those of us arguing that we’ve already achieved the elusive “soft landing.” 2.5% real annual growth and 3.4% real quarterly growth are both solidly above pre-C-19 trends. [Source]( But it gets even better than just broad consumer spending leading the way. Growth in durable goods manufacturing took home the bronze medal for growth in Q4, indicating that consumers and businesses were confident enough to make big ticket purchases. Let’s say it again for the people in the back—the U.S. economy, in a macro sense, is firing on all cylinders. Growth, employment, and inflation are all either strong or moving in the right direction at least, but at the same time, we know it’s far from perfect. Spending largely increased to such a degree because consumers were bringing home the bacon at the end of last year. Real gross domestic incomes, or the slice of the GD-Pie taken home by you, me, and all those other charitable consumers, grew 4.8% in Q4. For all of 2023, our earnings increased 0.5%. [Source](=) Plus, you notice anything else you would love to see on the above table? The Fed’s all-time favorite inflation metric, quarterly Core PCE, increased at that Holy Grail rate of 2.0% in Q4—must be an Easter miracle. The Takeaway? 2023 turned out to be a phenomenon year for stocks, the economy, and especially Travis Kelce’s girlfriend. Obviously, this is great news, but nothing in economics is ever stable. As constant stress and anxiety appear to be the only mindset we and our media feel comfortable with, now the fear is that we’ve reached our short-term post-C-19 peak. We’ll get the first estimates for Q1 in a few short weeks, but in the interim, all eyes are on Friday’s jobs report for March. Weakness in hiring would further imply that inflation is slowing, but, that would also imply that everything else is too. Just like it’s our moral duty to go out there and donate to the economy, the U.S. economy better stay in the gym, ripping those bench reps. What's Ripe 🤩 Micron (MU) 📈5.4% - If Nvidia is the 5th year senior still showing up to frat parties, Micron is like the freshman that shotguns beer in ~3 seconds… and it’s definitely getting a bid. - Micron almost led the S&P on Monday as BofA analyst Vivek Arya got markets hyped on the demand potential for the company’s memory products. - He and the rest of the BofA team raised their price target too, from $120 to $144, a 20% increase. Alphabet (GOOGL) 📈2.8% - Nobody should get rewarded for simply no longer doing scummy/illegal things, but when you set the bar as low as Google has, it’s only natural. - Alphabet has agreed to delete “billions” of data records it shouldn’t have had in the first place to settle a $5bn consumer privacy lawsuit. - Plus, Google’s VLOGGER AI has made some huge developments/improvements in recent weeks, sucking in the AI hype dollars as well. What's Rotten 🤮 Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) 📉21.5% - Everybody’s new favorite meme stock is learning the hard way that getting to the moon doesn’t come without a few challenges. - Investing in DJT is more like investing in Trump’s brand than anything else—nobody is actually analyzing this thing except for those selling shares. - So, the only thing to expect with DJT going forward is volatility. As for the company, I’m sure Facebook and Amazon are still just terrified. MicroStrategy (MSTR) 📉4.0% - Most things turn to diamonds under enough pressure, but apparently, this has the opposite effect on Michael Saylor’s hands. - Under the pressure of a rising premium to BTC, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor sold shares recently… and for what, worthless, useless USD?! - Saylor likes BTC like Hugh Hefner likes… well, you know. But given that his firm is basically a leveraged BTC bet, most should probably just hold the coins. = Thought Banana 🤔 Harsh Vibes Gen Z is, like, straight up not havin’ a good time. We’ve been called the “anxious generation,” the “iPhone generation,” and “the generation without purpose.” Wonder if any of those have anything to do with each other, but the WSJ just gave us a new label—“the toolbelt generation.” In addition to being a bunch of tools, Gen Z is ditching the harsh vibe of college campuses and deciding to actually make money instead of spending a bunch that they don’t have. What’s Happening? Growth in enrollment at vocational-focused schools shocked the nation by continuing to blow away that of all 4-year institutions in 2023. We knew this had begun in the post-C-19 era, but it’s a surprise for many to see this not only continue but accelerate. = [Source]( Enrollment at vocational-focused community colleges ballooned 16% in 2023, trouncing the 0.8% expansion in seats at all 4-year institutions. Amid all the cringy TikToks and “quiet quitting,” some members of Gen Z are bucking this reputation and entering the trades. It seems like the Zoomers are pulling at two ends of the extremes, so maybe the “Extreme Generation” is a better nickname? There’s a lot going on behind these decisions. Obviously everyone has their own reasons, but the skyrocketing cost of college, harsh vibes on some campuses, and rise of AI to take over your job (then probably the world) seem to be leading drivers. [Source](=) Don’t get me wrong—all you college graduates and soon-to-be grads out there are still on the right side of most career earnings data, but the math ain’t mathin’ for a lot of your more handy peers. Holding a bachelor’s degree still correlates (notably not causes) with nearly 2x more lifetime earnings than that of a high school degree holder and 40% more than even those who earned associate’s degrees. And that just makes sense, as a bachelor’s degree is at least supposed to make you an expert in a scalable subject. But at the same time, the earning gap for bachelor’s degree holders and everyone else is starting to narrow in the immediate post-grad days. = [Source]( Plus, if you don’t go to college, you don’t have to worry about the above chart. I couldn’t find any recent and reliable data on the post-student-debt-payments earnings gap between college grads and those who didn’t go to college, but that would be interesting to see… I’m sure that’s been narrowing even more in recent years. Who Cares? So, Gen Z is taking a look at this career calculus and, more than ever is deciding a college education is not worth it. This is both markets and market interference at work. A service and information-based economy means more jobs will require advanced education, and on the other side of that coin, fewer jobs will be available to those without. That will increase demand for a college degree which, when combined with federally subsidized loans, will lead to an increase in cost for college degrees. All of this remains true until some unknown breaking point is hit, at which point, demand for trade professions will start to outpace that of non-trade jobs. And it’s that breaking point that we seem to have hit. Don’t worry that it’s breaking, though, I’m sure all these soon-to-be trade professionals from Gen Z will be able to fix it. 💭 The Big Question 💭: Are blue-collar jobs the new wave? Is this a long-term trend for the U.S. or a post-pandemic reaction that won’t last long? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Previous 🗓 In a set of 24 cards, each card is numbered with a different positive integer from 1 to 24. One card will be drawn at random from the set. What is the probability that the card drawn will have either a number that is divisible by both 2 and 3 or a number that is divisible by 7? Today 🕐 If the circumference of a circle inscribed in a square is 25π, what is the perimeter of the square? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “Owning stocks is like having children – don't get involved with more than you can handle” — Peter Lynch How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁[All the bananas](=) 😐[Meh]( 😩[Rotten AF](=) Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE]() // [WSO ALPHA]( // [ACADEMY]( // [COURSES]() // [LEGAL]( [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353