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March 8, 2024 [View in browser]( Good morning! Biden had a fiery State of the Union address last night. Mixed in there was an interesting bit about Israel. Senior correspondent Zack Beauchamp is here to unpack that â and Democrats' broader relationship to Israel amid the war. âCaroline Houck, senior editor of news [biden and netanyahu on stage, seated in armchairs in front of alternating Israeli and American flags.] Miriam Alster/AFP via Getty Images The US is increasingly seeing Israel as a problem For years, there [have been signs]( that the Democratic Partyâs historic support for Israel might be wavering. Joe Bidenâs staunch support for Israel after October 7 seemed to suggest that this theory was overblown â that when push came to shove, Democrats would always revert to the centrist pro-Israel position they had taken for decades. But in the past few days, itâs started to feel like the winds might be shifting again. Both in [public]( and [private](, Biden and his deputies have fumed about Israel blocking aid from entering the Gaza Strip. Administration officials told reporter Barak Ravid that last week, when over 100 people were killed [outside an aid convoy,]( was (in his words) [a âturning point](.â Of course, the White House can complain all it wants (and [has done so before](): Itâs meaningless unless accompanied by actions to push Israel toward changing course. They started down that road earlier this year by imposing serious sanctions on violent Israeli settlers [in the West Bank](. Then during last nightâs State of the Union, President Biden ordered the US military to establish a port in Gaza that would bypass Israeli-controlled land crossings and thus allow humanitarian aid to flow more freely into the Strip. And itâs not just the administration â or even just the partyâs [clearly furious left flank](. A recent letter [signed by 37 Congressional Democrats](, including prominent and mainstream figures like Rep. Jamie Raskin (MD), argued that the [planned Israeli assault]( on the overcrowded city of Rafah would likely violate international law. This, they argue, should trigger a cutoff of military aid to Israel â a threat that has yet to be proven credible, but one that [knowledgeable observers take seriously](. It does seem like something is starting to change in the Democratic Partyâs approach to the Gaza war, and maybe Israel more broadly. But nothing is real until it actually happens, and there are still plenty of good reasons for skepticism. A crisis between Democrats and Israel has been long in the making The tension between Israel and the Democrats really started emerging in 2009. That year, President Barack Obama pushed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to freeze West Bank settlement construction as part of a push toward a peace agreement. Netanyahu dragged his feet and even outright thumbed his nose at the administration. During a 2010 visit from then-Vice President Biden, Israel announced the construction of [1,600 new housing units]( in contested East Jerusalem. The conflict between Obama and Netanyahu only intensified after that, as Netanyahu began acting as if Israelâs future would be best secured by allying itself with the Republican Party specifically rather than the US writ large. He all-but-openly campaigned against Obama in 2012, worked with Republicans to coordinate opposition to the Iran deal in Congress in 2015, and then hugged Trump as tightly as possible from 2016 onward. From the outside, this strategy seems nuts: Why would you intentionally stoke conflict with one of the two major parties in your most important ally? The answer is that Netanyahu has â correctly! â identified [fundamental ideological tension]( between Democrats and his right-wing vision for Israel. As a party that counts young people and racial minorities as key constituencies, Democrats were not likely (in the long run) to countenance indefinite Israeli occupation of the West Bank and blockade of Gaza. Netanyahu saw bolstering Republicans as the best way to protect American support without having to make concessions to Palestinians. [Smoke from an explosion following an Israeli airstrike in the Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza, on Wednesday, Feb. 28] Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg via Getty Images Netanyahuâs theory may have become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. By aligning with Republicans, he turned both [elite]( and [rank-and-file]( Democrats against his government far more rapidly than they might have otherwise. After Netanyahu traveled to Washington to give a speech to Congress opposing the Iran deal in 2015, his approval rating among Democrats [fell from 32 percent to 17 percent](. The divergence between Democrats and Israel has been on increasingly sharp display during the Gaza war. Bidenâs âunconditionalâ support for Israel after October 7 has given way to open feuding about the postwar plan for Gaza. The US has called for Palestinian Authority rule over the Strip and a two-state solution; Netanyahu has unveiled a [pseudo-plan that basically amounts to indefinite Israeli occupation](. This is hardly the only example. In a column titled â[The US finally realized: Netanyahu broke an unbreakable alliance](,â former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas lists off points of conflict between the allies â which, he concludes, are producing a fundamental rethink on the American side. âOnce the United States became convinced that Netanyahu was not being cooperative, not being a considerate ally, behaving like a crude ingrate and has been focused only on his political survival after the October 7 debacle, the time was ripe to try a new political course,â he writes. But is anything really changing? By all accounts, President Biden still holds [a relatively old-school Democratic view of Israel]( â one thatâs deeply sympathetic to the country and its security interests. As frustrated as he may be with Netanyahuâs brutish policies and rank partisanship, itâs far from obvious that he is willing to start putting real pressure on Israel. Most of Bidenâs actual policies have involved giving Israel what it wants, like [vetoing two UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire](. Perhaps most importantly, the US has made [over 100 arms sales to Israel since the war began](, many of which were structured in such a way that they could escape congressional and public oversight. For this reason, hearing about the administrationâs frustration with Israel can feel a bit like hearing about [Republican frustration with Trump](. Theyâre perfectly happy to complain to reporters in private so long as they donât have to actually do anything about it. Yet at the same time, events appear to be moving toward a breaking point. Bidenâs personal views on Israel are crashing on the shoals of [Israelâs terrible war policy]( and long-brewing tension within his own political coalition. We may soon find out whether the long-predicted crisis in US-Israel relations is truly here â or once again delayed. [âZack Beauchamp, senior correspondent]( [Listen]( Can Reddit survive going public? Itâs the first major social media IPO since 2017. Here's what is at stake, and why Reddit may not survive it. [Listen now]( DESIRE AND DIVORCE - Sorry, whatâs that about cocaine?: Brian Resnick digs into what we know about human desire â and explores what new weight loss drugs tell us about it. But first, a study about drugs (and not the prescription kind). [[Vox](]
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