Plus: Bitcoin's resurgence, Haiti's crisis, and more.
March 6, 2024 [View in browser]( Good morning! Super Tuesday was last night, and while none of the major presidential results were particularly surprising (barring Vermont), senior correspondent Eric Levitz is here to explain why Nikki Haley should still scare Republicans â and Democrats, for that matter. âCaroline Houck, senior editor of news [nikki haley at a campaign event] Emil Lippe/Getty Images Unpacking Super Tuesday Donald Trump and Joe Biden are among the [most]( [unpopular]( politicians in their respective parties. And yet, both routed their competition in Super Tuesdayâs primary elections. Yes, Nikki Haley won Vermont, and Biden faced an "uncommitted" vote in Minnesota. But unless either man dies or abruptly retires, they will each be on the presidential ballot this November. Although both parties are uniting behind weak standard-bearers, the Democratsâ apparent strategic failure has [attracted greater scrutiny](. Which is understandable. After all, it is Biden â not Trump â who is on pace to lose, if [current polls are any guide](. Given the presidentâs advanced age and extraordinarily low approval rating, itâs hard to believe that he is Blue Americaâs best hope. Yet, when pollsters ask voters for their preference in a hypothetical race between Trump and various other prominent Democrats, [no Biden alternative consistently outperforms the president](. Things are different in Red America. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley never posed a serious threat to Trumpâs renomination. If she had beaten him, however, polls suggest that Republicans could all but guarantee their coalitionâs triumph in November. Instead, theyâve settled on a candidate that a majority of voters disdain. In national polls of a hypothetical 2024 race, Haley leads Biden by [an average of 5 points](, while Trump edges the president [by just 2](. And the gap between the two Republicansâ respective showings is more pronounced in some of Americaâs most highly regarded surveys. The latest [New York Times/Siena College poll](, for example, puts Trumpâs lead over Biden at 5 points and Haleyâs at 10. More remarkably, Haleyâs double-digit advantage in the poll comes despite the fact a one-quarter of Trumpâs supporters wouldnât commit to backing her. Were Haley to consolidate the support of voters who prefer Trump over Biden, her lead over the president would [swell to 24 points](. All this should make both parties uncomfortable. Why Republicans should be concerned By all appearances, Republicans have just forfeited the opportunity to secure a Reagan-esque national landslide. Beyond likely ensuring Bidenâs defeat, a Haley nomination would have given the GOP an excellent chance of amassing large congressional majorities to boot. In todayâs America, all politics is national. Voters tend to back the same party up and down the ballot. A Haley landslide would therefore have translated into massive Republican success in House, Senate, and state elections. This in turn would have made many of the conservative movementâs longtime goals more legislatively feasible. [attendees at a nikki haley campaign event] Emil Lippe/Getty Images Republicans came one vote shy of partially repealing the Affordable Care Act in 2017. At that time, they held only 51 Senate seats. With larger majorities, the GOP would likely be able to slash federal health care spending and top tax rates. More consequentially, a large Republican Senate majority would plausibly have the votes to abolish the legislative filibuster and then enact nationwide restrictions on abortion, sharp cuts in legal immigration, and myriad other longtime conservative aspirations. A relatively narrow Trump victory, by contrast, could leave much of the rightâs agenda unfulfilled. A close Republican win at the presidential level would even be compatible with Democrats winning a House majority, an outcome that would tightly constrain conservativesâ policy gains. In other words, the conservative movement had a golden opportunity in 2024 to secure an electoral landslide with transformational policy implications. Republicans wonât get to run against an 81-year-old man with a 56 percent disapproval rating every election cycle. Widespread discontent with post-Covid inflation and distrust of Bidenâs mental fitness has created an opening for the GOP to win big without making significant ideological compromises (Haley is a [very conservative Republican](, by any reasonable metric). Instead, Republicans decided to throw Biden a lifeline by mobilizing behind a serially indicted demagogue whom a majority of Americans dislike. Why Democrats should be concerned Thus, Democrats dodged a bullet. But that brush with electoral devastation should inspire more concern than relief. Trump wonât be around forever. A post-MAGA Republican Party is coming. And for the moment, the Democratic brand looks to be in dire shape. Last fall, voters told [Gallup]( that they believed Republicans would do a better job than Democrats on âkeeping the country prosperousâ by a margin of 53 to 39 percent. In the past three decades of Gallupâs polling, Republicans have never had a larger edge on economic management. According to the same survey, the GOP also boasts a 22-point advantage on national security and an 8-point one on âthe problem you think is most importantâ (whatever that may be). Gallupâs findings are consistent with those of other recent surveys. An [NBC News poll]( from late last year found voters trusting Republicans over Democrats on the economy by a 21-point margin and on immigration by an 18-point one. Other recent polling [indicates]( that these are the most politically salient issues to Americans at the moment. Perhaps most alarmingly, however, NBC found Republicans nearly erasing the Democratsâ perennial lead on âlooking out for the middle-class.â Since the New Deal era, the perception that Democrats are uniquely concerned with the plight of ordinary Americans has been one of the partyâs core strengths. Democratic leaders are not fully to blame for their partyâs damaged reputation. Virtually every country suffered a spike in inflation when their economies reopened following the Covid crisis. And virtually every party that happened to be in power when prices surged has [seen its approval numbers collapse](. Bidenâs polling is terrible by historical standards but not by international ones. While Bidenâs approval rating sits at a measly 38 percent, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeauâs [is at 32 percent]( and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunakâs has [fallen to 21 percent](. Still, American voters arenât inclined to grade Biden on a curve. Democrats must therefore hope that Trumpâs unique toxicity â combined with the US economyâs objective strength â allows Biden to overcome both the globe-spanning backlash to incumbents and his own personal liabilities. In the longer run, however, the party must somehow regain the American publicâs trust on economic management before Republicans figure out how to nominate a normal presidential candidate. [âEric Levitz, senior correspondent]( [Listen]( How Israel is upending Democratic races Super Tuesday is the biggest day of the presidential primary campaign, but the biggest race in the biggest state isnât about Biden or Trump. Instead, the leading candidates for Californiaâs open Senate seat are finding themselves talking a lot about the war in Gaza. [Listen now]( POLITICS - Dig into Super Tuesday's results: Not just the presidential primary results, but also state races and more. [[Politico](] FINANCIAL SCHEMES, SCANDALS, AND SAGAS - Donât buy stock in Trumpâs Truth Social: The scheme to extract money from the former presidentâs biggest fans. [[Jabberwocking](]
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- Is bitcoin back?: It pains me to even think this, but ... should I have bought the dip after all? [[Vox](] [bitcoin illustration] Photo illustration by Chesnot/Getty Images AROUND THE WORLD - Whoâs coming to America is changing: Indians are now the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants in America, according to Pewâs most recent estimates. [[Washington Post](]
- No matter what part I lead with, itâs not gonna be enough to describe whatâs happening in Haiti: The government declared a state of emergency. Gangs coordinated a massive prison break. The prime minister is out of the country. Everyoneâs asking: Is this a play to overthrow the government? [[Guardian](] Ad
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