Plus: Super Bowl retrospective, Pakistan's elections, and more.
February 12, 2024 [View in browser]( Happy Monday! A perennial question of the 2024 cycle was revived last week: Why is this election between two old men, again? And is there any way to change it? Vox's senior politics reporter Christian Paz digs in. âCaroline Houck, senior editor of news [Joe Biden speaking into microphones.] Samuel Corum/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images The false idea of ditching Biden That [President Joe Biden]( is an old man is nothing new. Itâs also not groundbreaking to say that heâs [unpopular with broad swaths]( of Americans. But after last weekâs special counsel report on Bidenâs handling of classified documents highlighted lapses in his memory during questioning, a familiar question has resurfaced: Is Biden really the best option Democrats have in 2024? This disquiet isnât limited to Biden; this presidential cycle, thereâs [widespread dissatisfaction]( that two old men are all but guaranteed to be the major partiesâ presidential nominees. On the Republican side, thatâs come across through a contested primary that despite still delivering [Donald Trump]( resounding victory after resounding victory, has shown a small but fierce opposition to Trump [among a subset of GOP voters](. Meanwhile, in the press and on the Democratic side, thereâs an unwillingness by a subset of people (progressives, young people, and some politicians) to accept that Bidenâs nomination is really happening. Now the past week has left normies and politicos alike wondering: What would it take for someone to replace Biden at this point? Is there a feasible process? Is it too late? It would be a historic effort to even try â no sitting president has lost his partyâs nomination to a primary challenger in the modern political era. Replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee at this point would be a herculean, if not impossible, task. It would take overcoming two kinds of obstacles: real-world, practical challenges, and the more hypothetical but still important political challenges that exist for any potential Biden replacement. [Joe Biden leans down to pose for an iphone selfie with a woman and child.] Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images The practical problems are daunting Letâs start with the real-world challenges. The Democratic presidential nominee is chosen in August at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where a candidate needs to win the support of 1,969 of the estimated 3,936 Democratic delegates. Those delegates are assigned proportionally based on the vote totals in a stateâs primary (for any candidate who wins more than 15 percent of votes) and are then [âpledgedâ or âboundâ to that candidate]( in the first round of voting at the Democratic convention. Under this system, another candidate would need to win more delegates than Biden. Those 2024 primaries are well underway, and Biden has won every contest and every delegate so far. His support has been nearly uniform: In South Carolina, he won about 96 percent of the vote and in Nevada, he won about 90 percent of the vote. Those states collectively only have 91 delegates â or a little over 2 percent of the total available â but his primary challengers have either dropped out or face nearly impossible odds of beating him in any of the upcoming March contests, when more than 2,000 delegates will be up for grabs. And in those upcoming contests, before even rallying a base of support or raising money, a Democratic challenger would need to have registered with states to appear on the primary ballot. As the former political pollster Adam Carlson [has pointed out](, those filing deadlines have passed in 44 states. So itâs literally too late for a primary challenger who isnât already out there (ahem, Dean Phillips) to make it onto ballots. Even if someone could magically mount a successful challenge and notch some delegates, any that Biden has won will be bound to support him at the first DNC floor vote, according to party rules. Only Biden can make the decision to direct his delegates to vote for someone else, but they are pledged to vote for him unless he drops out beforehand. And this is where the practical and political challenges merge: Biden is the only one who can decide if he wants to drop out before the floor vote. And there are plenty of reasons why that wouldnât happen. [Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.] Roberto Schmidt//AFP via Getty Images The political challenges are very risky Politically, itâs incredibly risky for anyone else to jump into the contest. The vast majority of the Democratic establishment has already united around Biden â endorsing him, stumping for him, and leading the partyâs operations because of Biden. This is also where itâs important to dispel the notion that anyone could force Biden to drop out. The DNC is not some omnipotent, shadowy operation that has the power, influence, or ability to crown a different party leader. Who do you think [chose the DNC chair and vice-chairs](? There just isnât a council of decision-makers who can tell Biden to drop out or choose to ditch him. And that speaks to a bigger issue with how our political parties are thought of. The power of party elites is [often overstated]( â and the primaries so far show the influence of voters. As unpopular as Biden might seem to some folks, he still won handily in the 2020 primary, and when given options to protest-vote in New Hampshire or select ânone of these candidatesâ in Nevada this year, Democrats have still sided with Biden. So only Biden could make the decision to drop out. He doesnât want to (not least because he sees himself as key to [stopping Trumpâs reelection](). And even if he did choose to, the only option that would not risk massive dissension among the Democratic base would be to choose his vice president, [Kamala Harris](. The vice president has her own political drawbacks: She [polls]([worse]( than Biden against Trump, hasnât run a successful national campaign before, and, unfortunately, faces different voter prejudices because she is a woman of color. Other Democratic stars, like Govs. Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Secretary Pete Buttigieg, are also loyal Biden Democrats, [poll worse]( than Biden, or are biding their time. And to bypass Harris for one of them also opens up potential ire from Black voters, without whom Democrats canât win. Should a different, other Democrat emerge, with the vocal support of, I donât know, Barack Obama and a core of Biden-critical strategists and politicians, and should first lady Jill Biden and other Biden confidantes approach Biden and convince him to drop out, weâd likely head toward a brokered convention with multiple rounds of voting. That also opens up the chance for even more chaos and disunity among Democrats. Does that seem worth it to anyone in Democratic politics right now? The simple answer is no. Itâs too late. If youâre a Democrat or want to beat Donald Trump, it looks like itâs Biden or bust. [Christian Paz, senior politics reporter]( [Listen]( Why Taylor left TikTok Universal Media Group pulled its entire catalog off TikTok. The Vergeâs Nilay Patel explains why, and author Cory Doctorow says the appâs âenshittificationâ is inevitable. [Listen now]( SUPER BOWL 2024 - Kansas City on top, again: The Chiefs won their second consecutive Super Bowl, 25-22. To do so, they beat San Francisco in overtime. [[SBNation](]
- If you want more: The story of how they got there this season. [[ESPN](]
- What a halftime show: Here's an homage to Usher. [[Vox](]
- If the aesthetic for the NFL felt different this season: Youâre not alone in thinking so. Ringerâs pitch is to think of it as the WAGaissance (NFLâs version). [[Ringer](] [Super Bowl LVIII] Ethan Miller/Getty Images CULTURE - People were being, you guessed it, weird online: The Grammys were over a week ago, but online, the worst people youâre glad not to know kept being weird about Tracy Chapmanâs knockout song âFast Carâ for daaays. [[Vox](]
- Will The Rock come tumbling down?: Yikes, sorry for that bad pun, but this delightful dive into the wrestling-and-acting celebrityâs return to WWE has me feeling goofy. [[Slate](] AROUND THE WORLD - Pakistanâs elections were surprisingly competitive: Independent candidates associated with jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan notched the most seats in a rejection of the countryâs military power brokers. [[NYT](]
- Evacuate to ... where, exactly?: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is directing the military to evacuate Rafah, the southern city in Gaza to which 1.4 million people have already fled, in order to launch an assault against it. [[AP](] Ad
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