Plus: The Israeli Supreme Court's big decision.
Tuesday, January 2, 2024 Good afternoon, Li Zhou here as your Sentences host for the first few editions of 2024. (And yes, weâve officially made it to another presidential election year.) Hereâs the agenda today: UP FIRST: The GOP primary calendar, explained CATCH UP: A big judicial decision in Israel âLi Zhou, senior reporter UP FIRST The GOP primary is underway [Donald Trump, in a navy suit, white shirt, and red tie stands in the middle of an excited crowd; he reaches towards the camera, shaking hands with someone as members of the crowd take photos and videos with their phones.] Jabin Botsford/Washington Post/Getty Images After months of debates, stump speeches, and speculation, the first wave of Republican primary voters will head to the polls in less than two weeks. The Iowa caucuses, which take place on Monday, January 15, mark the first test of just how enduring former President Donald Trumpâs hold on the party is and whether any of his rivals has even a glimmer of hope. Currently, Trump remains far ahead of the other candidates in national polling and early state polls. [According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average](, Trump has 61 percent Republican support nationally, putting him nearly 50 points ahead of his two closest competitors: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Things are a bit closer in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina â three of the early states â though not by much. Per FiveThirtyEight, Trump is ahead by [roughly 30 points in Iowa,]( approximately [20 points in New Hampshire](, and [about 30 points in South Carolina.]( (Nevada, the fourth early state, has seen less polling, so there isnât yet a reliable average.) These primaries will reveal the degree of Trumpâs dominance ahead of the general election and indicate how much support Haley or DeSantis have captured. All signs suggest itâs unlikely that either poses a real threat to the former president, but we wonât know for sure until the votes are cast. Hereâs a look at the upcoming primary calendar and what weâre watching in each state: - Monday, January 15, Iowa caucuses: As the first contest, Iowa is known for setting the tone for the GOP primary, though a win here hasnât always guaranteed the partyâs nomination. Interestingly, Iowa is the only early state Trump did not win when he first ran in 2016: At the time, he came in a close second to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). This year, given how far ahead Trump is, it will be a major upset if anyone else is able to take the state.
- Tuesday, January 23, New Hampshire primary: According to polls, New Hampshire appears to be the closest of the early states, with Haley trailing Trump there by about 20 points. As a result, the Granite State could be her best (and maybe final) chance to pick up any momentum.
- Thursday, February 8, Nevada caucuses: Due to the state Republican Partyâs issues with a state law, Nevada will hold two nominating contests this year, with a primary taking place on February 6 and caucuses occurring on February 8. The state GOP has already said it will only use the outcome of the February 8 caucuses [to allocate delegates](, and thatâs likely to benefit Trump. Haley will be the only major candidate on the primary ballot, while Trump and DeSantis chose to be on the caucus ballot.
- Saturday, February 24, South Carolina primary: Things may already be fully wrapped up by this final early state, though if the race remains competitive, South Carolina could see a last-ditch attempt by Haley to pick up some delegates. As a former governor in the state, if she isnât able to perform well here, itâs a sure indicator that her campaign doesnât have a shot elsewhere either. CATCH UP The Israeli Supreme Courtâs big decision [The justices of the Israeli Supreme Court sit behind a semicircular wooden bench, Israeli flags behind them. Two women sit at a table before the bench dressed in dark suits. ] Menahem Kahana/Pool/AFP/Getty Images As Israel continues its war in Gaza against Hamas, itâs also facing a major judicial decision that threatens to reopen domestic divides. Monday, Israelâs Supreme Court ruled 8-7 against a law that would have stripped the judiciary of significant powers. That law, which was approved by the Knesset last year and backed by embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would have taken away the Supreme Courtâs ability to deem government actions âunreasonable,â a legal standard similar to [declaring a law âunconstitutionalâ in the US.]( The policy was viewed by critics as effectively removing a check on the executive branch that the judiciary helped provide, and its passage sparked months of protests in Israel. The Supreme Courtâs decision has the potential to foster dissent in an Israeli government previously unified in its response to the October 7 Hamas attack. - The cabinet guiding Israelâs war on Gaza is split on the ruling: Yoav Gallant, Israelâs defense minister, is among the top officials who have criticized Netanyahuâs judicial overhaul. Another member of the war cabinet who has protested these changes is Benny Gantz, the head of the opposition National Unity Party.
- The landmark judicial decision comes as Israel withdraws some troops in Gaza: On Monday, Israel announced that it is withdrawing thousands of troops from Gaza, [where more than 22,000 Palestinians](have been killed by its military incursion, per the Gaza Health Ministry.
- The decision raises the scrutiny on Netanyahu: The prime minister has been the subject of domestic ire for his pursuit of these reforms, with some arguing that his focus on these policies distracted the government from anticipating the October 7 attack. Questions remain about whether Netanyahu will abide by the Courtâs decision or attempt to move forward with the judicial reforms regardless of the ruling. Read more about the protests in response to Israelâs judicial reforms [here](. VERBATIM ð£ï¸ âThe secret sauce of goal setting is breaking it down into task strategies and sub-goals. Youâre less likely to blow it off because it starts to seem too big a deal, too hard to do, too hard to fit in my life.â â[Denise Rousseau](, a professor of organizational behavior and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, on how to set manageable New Yearâs resolutions [[Vox](] AROUND THE WEB - A plane crash in Japan. In Tokyo, a passenger plane collided with a coast guard plane delivering aid to those affected by the countryâs recent earthquake. Those on the passenger plane escaped before it burst into flames, while five coast guard workers were killed. [[AP](]
- A stabbing of a South Korean opposition leader. Lee Jae-myung, the head of South Koreaâs Liberal Democratic Party, was attacked in Busan. Lee is recovering from surgery and the motives of the stabbing have yet to be disclosed. [[NYT](]
- Trump legal drama continues. Over the holiday break, Maine joined Colorado in removing Trump from the stateâs Republican primary ballot. Trump is now set to appeal both of those decisions. [[ABC](]
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