Why can't we predict tornadoes? 🌪️

Scientists are chasing storms to better understand them. [Unexplainable]( Eight minutes and 24 seconds. That’s the [average lead time]( for a tornado warning, and most of those warnings are false alarms. Why can’t we forecast something as massive — and dangerous — as a tornado? Turns out, predicting tornadoes is one of the most frustrating problems in meteorology. While scientists have gotten better at forecasting other severe weather, like hurricanes, accurate tornado predictions remain elusive. Tornadoes are extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the atmosphere, and scientists still don’t know exactly what makes one happen. [On this week’s Unexplainable episode](, we talk to scientists who chase twisters to discover their secrets. —Lauren Katz and the Unexplainable team [A stovepipe tornado cuts its way through a field in Minneola, Kansas, in 2016]( A stovepipe tornado cuts its way through a field in Minneola, Kansas, in 2016. Credit: Jason Weingart/Barcroft Media via Getty Images CURIOUS FOR MORE? - Tornado warning lead times in the US have been getting worse. In 2011, the average lead [was just around 13 minutes](. Between 2012 and 2020, the Washington Post [has reported](, that number dropped to 8.4 minutes. - This [Vox video]( explains why the US’s Tornado Alley has more tornadoes than anywhere else in the world. (The US gets more than [1,000 twisters per year, on average](. The runner-up, Canada, records around 100.) - The big thunderstorms that produce most tornadoes are called [supercells]( — and their [clouds]( are epic (as is this photo gallery). - Good news: Unlike tornado forecasts, [hurricane forecasts]( have recently improved.  [Learn more about RevenueStripe...]( THIS IS FASCINATING [A microburst in the Las Vegas area in 2021] A microburst in the Las Vegas area this summer. Credit: Tyler Leavitt Photographer [Tyler Leavitt]( captured this incredible microburst in the Las Vegas area [last week](. [Microbursts]( — short, extremely powerful storms that often cause extensive damage — happen when air sinks, causing the middle of the storm to head toward the ground. FROM OUR LISTENERS [Rate or review us on Apple Podcasts, or reply to this email with your thoughts about the show. We read every email!]( Rate or review us on [Apple Podcasts](, or reply to this email with your thoughts about the show. We read every email! Support Unexplainable The world needs more wonder. Support Unexplainable and help us keep it free by making a financial contribution today. [Contribute]( STAY IN TOUCH - [Submit a show idea]( - [Subscribe to the Unexplainable podcast]( - Did a friend forward you this newsletter? [Sign up here.](  [Learn more about RevenueStripe...]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [YouTube]( This email was sent to {EMAIL}. Manage your [email preferences]( [unsubscribe](param=unexplainable). If you value Vox’s unique explanatory journalism, support our work with a one-time or recurring [contribution](. View our [Privacy Notice]( and our [Terms of Service](. Vox Media, 1201 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036. Copyright © 2021. All rights reserved.