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April 26, 2024 [View in browser]( Good morning! If you enjoy snorkeling or scuba diving, you should go ASAP. Senior reporter Benji Jones explains why. âCaroline Houck, senior editor of news [An illustration of scuba divers wearing wetsuits and yellow fins swimming over the sea floor, which is strewn with white coral and gravestones.] Paige Vickers/Vox A crisis undersea More than five years ago, the worldâs top climate scientists made a frightening prediction: If the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius, relative to preindustrial times, [70 to 90 percent]( of coral reefs globally would die off. At 2°C, that number jumps to more than 99 percent. These researchers were essentially describing the global collapse of an entire ecosystem driven by [climate change](. Warm ocean water causes corals â large colonies of tiny animals â to âbleach,â meaning they lose a kind of beneficial algae that lives within their bodies. That algae gives coral its color and much of its food, so bleached corals are white and starving. Starved coral is more likely to die. In not so great news, the planet is [now approaching that 1.5°C mark](. So, itâs no surprise that coral reefs are, indeed, collapsing. Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) [announced]( that the planet is experiencing its fourth global âbleachingâ event on record. Since early 2023, an enormous amount of coral in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans has turned ghostly white, including in places like the Great Barrier Reef and the Florida Keys. In some regions, a lot of the coral has already died. But coral reefs were collapsing well before the current bleaching crisis. A [study]( published in 2021 estimated that coral âhas declined by halfâ since the mid-20th century. In some places, like the Florida Keys, [nearly 90 percent]( of the live corals have been lost. Past bleaching events are one source of destruction, as are other threats linked to climate change, including ocean acidification. The past and current state of corals raises an important but challenging question: If the planet continues to warm, is there a future for these iconic ecosystems? [A person wearing a snorkel, black wet suit, and flippers, swims above a coral reef while filming with an underwater camera.] David Gray/AFP via Getty Images Will there be coral reefs 100 years from now? In the next few decades, a lot of coral will die â [thatâs pretty much a given](. And to be clear, this reality is absolutely devastating. Regardless of whether snorkeling is your thing, reefs are essential to human well-being: Coral reefs [dampen waves]( that hit the shore, support [commercial fisheries](, and [drive coastal tourism]( around the world. Theyâre also home to an incredible diversity of life that inspires wonder. âIâm pretty sure that we will not see the large surface area of current reefs surviving into the future,â said Hans-Otto Pörtner, who was involved in the [landmark 2018 report](, led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that predicted the downfall of tropical reefs at 1.5°C warming. âEvery year is going to be worse.â But even as many corals die, reefs wonât exactly disappear. The 3D formation of a typical reef is made of hard corals that produce a skeleton-like structure. When the polyps die, they leave their skeletons behind. Animals that eat live coral, such as butterfly fish and certain marine snails, will likely vanish; plenty of other fish and crabs will stick around because they can hide among those skeletons. Algae will dominate on ailing reefs, as will âweedyâ kinds of coral, like sea fans, that donât typically build the reefâs structure. Simply put, dead reefs arenât so much lifeless as they are home to a new community of less sensitive (and often more common) species. âReefs in the future will look very different,â said [Jean-Pierre Gattuso](, a leading marine scientist whoâs also involved with the IPCC. âRestoring coral reefs to what they were prior to mass bleaching events is impossible. That is a fact.â On the timescale of decades, even much of the reef rubble will fade away, as there will be no (or few) live corals to build new skeletons and plenty of forces to erode the ones that remain. Remarkably, about [30 percent]( of the carbon dioxide that we pump into the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans. When all that CO2 reacts with water, it makes the ocean more acidic, hastening the erosion of coral skeletons and other biological structures made of calcium carbonate. [A scuba diver swims through an underwater cluster of staghorn coral, which resemble floating trees with branches similar to antlers.] Jennifer Adler for Vox Buying time For decades now, hard-working and passionate scientists have been trying to reverse this downward trend â in large part, by âplantingâ pieces of coral on damaged reefs. This practice is similar to planting saplings in a logged forest. In reef restoration, many scientists and environmental advocates see hope and a future for coral reefs. But these efforts come with one major limitation: If the oceans continue to grow hotter, many of those planted corals will die too. Last fall, [I dived a handful of reefs]( in the Florida Keys where thousands of pieces of elkhorn and staghorn â iconic, reef-building corals â had been planted. Nearly all of them were bleached, dead, or dying. âWhen are [we] going to stop pretending that coral reefs can be restored when sea temperatures continue to rise and spike at lethal levels?â Terry Hughes, one of the worldâs leading coral reef ecologists, [wrote on X](. Ultimately, the only real solution is reducing carbon emissions. Period. Pretty much every marine scientist Iâve talked to agrees. âWithout international cooperation to break our dependence on fossil fuels, coral bleaching events are only going to continue to increase in severity and frequency,â Derek Manzello, a marine scientist at NOAA who leads the agencyâs coral bleaching project, said. But in the meantime, [other stuff can help](. Planting pieces of coral can work if those corals are more tolerant to threats like extreme heat or disease. To that end, researchers are trying to breed more heat-resistant individuals or identify those that are naturally more tolerant to stress â not only heat, but disease. Even after extreme bleaching events, many corals survive, according to Jason Spadaro, a restoration expert at Floridaâs Mote Marine Laboratory. Scientists also see an urgent need to curb other, non-climate related threats, like water pollution and intensive fishing. These efforts alone will not save reefs, but theyâll buy time, experts say, helping corals hold on until emissions fall. If those interventions work â and if countries step up their climate commitments â future generations will still get to experience at least some version of these majestic, life-sustaining ecosystems. â[Benji Jones, senior reporter]( [Listen]( The TikTok âbanâ is law President Joe Biden signed into law a bill that would ban the app unless itâs sold to an American company. Voxâs Christian Paz explains. [Listen now]( AMERICA - Crime rates are falling: But politiciansâ interest in tough-on-crime laws doesn't seem to be. [[Vox](]
- WH vs. NYT: A behind-the-scenes look at the tensions between Bidenâs White House and the USâs paper of record. [[Politico](] [Biden briefly speaks to reporters] Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images ALSO IN THE NEWS - The FCCâs vote to restore net neutrality, explained: Net neutrality, if youâll remember from the early 2010s fight to establish it, is the idea that internet service providers âshould not be able to discriminate against different kinds of content by blocking or throttling connection speeds or offering paid prioritization for different internet traffic.â [[The Verge](]
- Good news: âThe world has become a much safer place to be a young child in the last 50 years.â Vaccines play a big role in that. [[Vox](] Ad
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[Learn more about RevenueStripe...]( Canadaâs polite Trumpism Vox's Zack Beauchamp follows up on our edition earlier this week and explains how the rise of an unusually tame right-wing populist reveals how Canadian democracy stays strong. [Read more »]( Are you enjoying the Today, Explained newsletter? Forward it to a friend; they can [sign up for it right here](. And as always, we want to know what you think. We recently changed the format of this newsletter. Any questions, comments, or ideas? We're all ears. Specifically: If there is a topic you want us to explain or a story youâre curious to learn more about, let us know [by filling out this form]( or just replying to this email. Today's edition was edited and produced by Caroline Houck. We'll see you Monday! Ad
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