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These 6 Signals Help Reveal the "Internal Market"
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Hi there...
Thanks for stopping by -- it's great to be back in the saddle after a week spent relishing torpor.
I mostly spent my time catching up with friends and acquaintances whom I had managed to overlook these past months.
Today we're going to pick up where we left off in early June...
But first I want to say "Thank You!" to my friend and colleague Doug Fogel for having my back (and yours) while I was away. Doug is a stand-up guy and I'm very glad he stepped up!
Now...
Back on June 13th (["Deep In the Heart of the 'Internal Market'"](), we saw how P&F charts let us smooth out much of the noise you see on other types of charts, such as line, OHLC bar charts, etc.
You saw that the basic interpretation of P&F charts is dead simple -- the chart is either on a Buy or Sell signal at all times, although at any moment it can be in a column of X's or of O's.
We then looked at one of the most powerful indicators of all, the Bullish Percent Index.
This indicator is an "oscillator" that tracks the percentage of stocks in a particular sector or industry group or index that have done or are doing some particular thing -- such as going on technical 'Buy' signals... trading above their 10-week Moving Average... trading above their 30-week Moving Average... and so on.
We said that, despite its simplicity, this indicator can let us track the market at a very deep level.
Today we're going to go deeper into that by looking at...
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THE SIX KEY P&F SIGNALS YOU NEED TO KNOW
There are more than a dozen P&F signals, but we'll only cover the six basic ones here. The three general types of basic signal are called: Alert, Correction, and Confirmed.
You'll sometimes see these signals referred to as "pairings". This is because, for every bullish manifestation of a signal you'll find a bearish counterpart.
The six P&F signals we're going to describe are:
1. Bull Alert and Bear Alert...
2. Bull Confirmed and Bear Confirmed...
3. Bull Correction and Bear Correction.
These signals are a bit more sophisticated than Buy or Sell signals. That's because they're generated based on a combination of circumstances -- such as, what "region" of the chart are we in... what type of column did the chart "flip to"... and was the chart on a Buy or a Sell signal at the time of the reversal.
A Bull Alert is generated when a BPI chart in oversold territory (below 30%) flips to a column of X's. You can see this "status" on the BPI chart for the Restaurants sector (one of the 45 sectors we track at True Market Insiders).
This signals that the market may be forming a bottom. (In this case, it clearly was).
It's a bullish indication because, for this P&F chart to flip to X's, an additional 6% of stocks in the S&P would have had to have gone on Buy signals while the chart was oversold (washed out). The chart is not yet on a Buy signal. but the smart investor should be "alert" to the possibility that one may be coming.
The Bull Alert's bearish cousin, the Bear Alert signal, forms when the chart is in "overbought" territory (above 70%, shaded in red) and then flips to a column of O's.
Here's an example of a Bear Alert from the Sector BPI of the Real Estate sector.
Again, this is not a Sell signal, but a movement that could be foreshadowing further significant declines.
We see a Bull Confirmed signal when the chart is already on a P&F Buy signal and also in a rising column of X's. Not surprisingly, the Bull Confirmed signal is considered the strongest status designation.
We can spot a Bull Confirmed signal on this BPI of the Electronics sector:
If Bull Confirmed is the strongest designation, Bear Confirmed is, as you might expect, the weakest designation.
We see a Bear Confirmed signal when a BPI chart is on a P&F Sell signal while in a falling column of O's.
Like in this BPI of the Drugs sector...
A Bull Correction signal occurs when the BPI is on a Buy signal, but the chart itself is in a column of O's, that is, declining. Of course, the chart will stay on its Buy signal until (if) the current column of O's falls below the previous column of O's. The reversal into O's is considered a correction within the larger, bullish trend.
In the BPI of the Biomedics Genetics sector, below, you can easily see that the chart is on a Buy signal and that the most recent column, at the far right, is in O's.
Finally, we come to the sixth BPI signal.
If you've been following along, you'll almost definitely be able to say what a Bear Correction signal looks like. It's a chart in a column of X's while on a P&F Sell signal.
Here's an example, from the Leisure sector.
Again, these are the basic BPI signals.
We'll look at some of the others in the in the future.
Until then, here's some excellent news...
If you missed [Chris Rowe's investor briefing this past Tuesday]( -- where he shows how you can "reset" your retirement...
We've posted a replay of it online.
We've also had the event transcribed (charts and all!) in case you'd rather read what Chris had to say.
Either way, [just click here now]( to access the recording and the written play-by-play.
Thanks as always for reading.
It's good to be back!
[Bill_Sig](
Bill Spencer
Editor-In-Chief, True Market Insiders
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["Once you tap into these strategies, you can profit over and over like clockwork."](
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DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. True Market Insiders LLC is not an investment advisor and is not licensed to give specific financial advice. The chairman of True Market Insiders, Chris Rowe, is also the CEO, CIO and owner of Rowe Wealth Management LLC, which is not owned by and is not the owner of True Market Insiders.
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”). However, such information has not been verified by True Market Insiders or the information provider and TMM and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. TMM and the information provider accept no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct, indirect, consequential, or special loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or its contents or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.
Unless otherwise stated, performance numbers are based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends, fees, or other expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. You should consider this strategy’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. The examples and information presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transaction costs.
The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy.
Some performance information presented is the result of back-tested performance. Back-tested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes to illustrate the effects of the True Market Insiders LLC strategy during a specific period. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity. Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon.
Back-tested performance results have certain limitations. Such results do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investor’s decision making process if the investors were actually managing money. Back-testing performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology designed with the benefit of hindsight. True Market Insiders believes the data used in the testing to be from credible, reliable sources, however; True Market Insiders makes no representation or warranties of any kind as to the accuracy of such data. All available data representing the full platform of investment options is used for testing purposes.