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Here's A Solid Play On India's Resurgence
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I spent the entire year of 1993 backpacking through India.
Talk about culture shock – my senses were constantly under assault.
Garlanded women in vibrant saris…
Pungent aromas of spice and incense…
Gorgeous Hindi music blaring from rooftops...
Ancient temples teeming with pilgrims…
Snake charmers working the streets… Dread-locked sadhus... Sacred cows... Legions of monkeys…
You could experience all this and more in just a 5-minute walk from your hotel.
And the abject poverty… it was overwhelming.
For a week or so I stayed at a friend’s high-rise apartment in Bombay (what's now called Mumbai).
The morning after arriving, I awoke to discover that an encampment of about 50 families had sprouted up overnight across the street.
This, my host told me, happened all over the country every day.
As you might imagine, I also encountered countless beggars during my time in India -- many of the poor souls hopelessly scarred by leprosy.
Some had no legs and transported themselves in little wagons that looked like relics from the Middle Ages.
So why am I telling you all this?
Because apparently the country has changed dramatically for the better since my time there almost three decades ago.
The upshot is that savvy investors are turning to India as a source of very attractive investment ideas -- such as the one you're going to get today.
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But first, it’s worth noting that the Workhorse (WKHS) recommendation from my May 27th True Market Insider has worked out well for us.
The stock is up 159.3%, shooting up from $2.68 to $6.95 at yesterday's close.
One grateful reader wrote in to say...
"Someone in your office emailed an interesting piece about WKHS (Workhorse Group inc). I purchased the stock on 5/27 at $2.67 based on his analysis.
As of this moment the stock is $7.31.
"I would like to know who this person is so I can thank him.
It also would be nice to hear more from him."
Done and done! My name is Doug Fogel and you will be hearing more from me.
Thank you for the kind words... and you are welcome.
Our March 17 bullish play on Spain has also done well.
The EWP Oct 15 call option (EWP is the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF) rose from about $4.50 to $8.15 for a gain of 82.2%.
But let's leave Spain for the moment and return to India...
According to the Hindustan Times, between 2005 and 2016, India slashed the number of people living in poverty from 630 million to 360 million. That's a reduction of nearly -43%.
During that period, per capita GDP grew 129% -- from Rs 38,750 to Rs 88,746. That growth transformed India into a lower middle-income economy. (Rs stands for rupees – the national currency of India – which currently trades at about 76 to the U.S. dollar).
To say the world has taken notice of India’s resurgence would be an understatement.
According to Zacks, a well-known market research and investment management company, foreigners invested more than $4 billion in local Indian shares during Q1 2020, the highest investment in Asia for that time frame.
If you’re a typical investor, the easiest way to play India is through an exchange traded fund (ETF).
And since May of this year, Indian ETFs have been on a tear.
For example, First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF (NFTY) and Columbia India Consumer ETF (INCO) were the country’s top performers in May, with about 17.5% and 14.4% gains, respectively,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeded this bullish trend in March, when he announced a hefty stimulus package of over 20 trillion rupees ($265 billion), which equates to an estimated 10% of the country’s gross domestic product.
The purpose of this stimulus was to counteract the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, particularly in rural areas, where most of the money is supposed be directed.
Another factor that bodes well for India’s economy is the weather - long-range forecasters from the Indian Meteorological Department are calling for a normal monsoon.
This is important because strong monsoons are seen as market-friendly because they portend high crop yields.
Here are three additional reasons to be bullish on India:
Demographics – The country boasts a youthful, educated and growing workforce which should help support economic growth.
Economic Diversity – At $3.2 trillion, India's GDP makes it the fifth-largest economy in the world. And it offers investors exposure to a wide range of sectors, including consumer goods, pharmaceuticals and knowledge-based services such as IT, software and business services.
Stable Government – India has maintained a strong parliamentary democracy since it achieved freedom from Great Britain 73 years ago. And since 2014, when Narendra Modi was elected prime minister, India has vastly improved its economy. It has done so through a number of key reforms, including a nationwide goods and services tax that replaced a patchwork of state-level excise taxes.
There are a number of Indian ETFs you can play, but I like the iShares India Small-Cap ETF (SMIN) best.
The reason is that small caps are domestically oriented, and likely to fare better as spending increases in rural India (recall that stimulating rural India was the primary purpose of the country's massive stimulus).
Right now SMIN trades at $29.71, which is more than $8 below its pre-pandemic value of about $38.
And it's nearly $24 off it's all time high of $53.36 (January 2018) before the coronavirus selloff in March... and off its all-time high of $53.56.
I see SMIN at least hitting that nest key resistance level near $38 (the red dotted line). That would give us a gain of 28%.
If it reaches the blue line ($40, another key level) we'll see a 35% return.
But ultimately, I see no reason why it won’t regain its March 2019 level in short order... and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it tested its all-time highs before the year is out.
There are no SMIN options that I'd recommend. So the only way to play it is to buy SMIN outright.
That’s it for today.
But before you go...
[Go here]( and save a seat in tomorrow's investor event with Chris Rowe.
Chris is going to talk about a strategy he uses to reduce risk (potentially to zero)...
While pulling cash out of long positions.
[Don't miss it](.
Cheers,
Doug Fogel
Editor, True Market Insiders
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The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. True Market Insiders LLC is not an investment advisor and is not licensed to give specific financial advice. The chairman of True Market Insiders, Chris Rowe, is also the CEO, CIO and owner of Rowe Wealth Management LLC, which is not owned by and is not the owner of True Market Insiders.
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”). However, such information has not been verified by True Market Insiders or the information provider and TMM and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. TMM and the information provider accept no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct, indirect, consequential, or special loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or its contents or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.
Unless otherwise stated, performance numbers are based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends, fees, or other expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. You should consider this strategy’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. The examples and information presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transaction costs.
The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy.
Some performance information presented is the result of back-tested performance. Back-tested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes to illustrate the effects of the True Market Insiders LLC strategy during a specific period. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity. Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon.
Back-tested performance results have certain limitations. Such results do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investor’s decision making process if the investors were actually managing money. Back-testing performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology designed with the benefit of hindsight. True Market Insiders believes the data used in the testing to be from credible, reliable sources, however; True Market Insiders makes no representation or warranties of any kind as to the accuracy of such data. All available data representing the full platform of investment options is used for testing purposes.