🎲Don’t Bet on $140 Oil

Good morning. Oil prices have inched back to $70 per barrel, after dropping to one-year lows... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Oil prices have inched back to $70 per barrel, after dropping to one-year lows. Some analysts, such as the one at Goldman Sachs, sees the price potentially doubling this year to $140. The reason? A potential supply crunch as shale oil producers are unable to borrow from small and regional banks. However, it may be better to take the opposite view. The inverted yield curve and now banking crisis suggest a recession is imminent, if not underway. When that happens, oil demand drops as consumers cut back. That may be why oil prices have been near a 52-week low in the first place. While we still think there are some pockets of value in the energy space, the easy money of the past two years has been made, and a more neutral to slightly-negative outlook may be more appropriate here. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [Did We Learn a Lesson from the Last Stock Market Crash?]( Those in the markets learned an important lesson in 2020: what goes down, must come up. But how do you know when the floor hits and the bounce begins? Wouldn't you want to be in at that inception point? There's one way to know and it's not gurus, not headlines, it's not your brother-in-law spouting his theories on the markets. Join us in our [FREE, Live A.I. Market Training]( to learn how. MARKETS DOW 32,030.11 -1.63% S&P 3,936.97 -1.65% NASDAQ 11,669.96 -1.60% *As of market close • Markets sank on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point. • Oil rose 0.9 percent, last going for $70.32 per barrel. • Gold rallied 1.8 percent, ending at $1,977 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies sank, with bitcoin at $26,760 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [This Tech Leader Could Make New Highs, Even in a Slowing Economy]( Typically, growth stocks are a tough investment when economic growth has become slow and uncertain. The lofty valuations and predictions that look attractive in a bull market don’t look as good when the economy is likely to contract. However, some growth companies are able to position themselves for winning trends, even in a slowing economy. And those that can deliver could be the first stocks to make new all-time highs when things look rosy again. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: Sitio Royalties Corp (STR)]( Christopher Conoscenti, CEO at Sitio Royalties Corp (STR), recently bought 2,500 shares. The buy increased his stake by 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $50,475. The buy came a few days after the CEO made a 10,000 share buy, which came to a cost just over $221,000. Those two buys have been the only insider filings since the oil and gas royalty company went public. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Snap Inc (SNAP)]( Social media company Snap Inc (SNAP) has seen shares drop 70 percent in the past year. One trader is betting that shares have further to fall in the next six months. That’s based on the September $6 puts. With 176 days until expiration, 11,418 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 246, for a 46-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.27 to make the bearish bet. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Home Prices Mark First Decline in 11 Years]( U.S. home prices fell in February, completing the first year-over-year drop in prices since the bottom of the housing market 11 years ago. Overall, sales rose 14.5 percent in February compared to January, but are down 22.6 percent compared to a year ago. • [Mortgage Demand Rises, Even as Interest Rates Inch Higher]( Last week, mortgage demand rose 2 percent compared to the prior week. However, mortgage applications are a full 36 percent lower compared to the same week in 2022, a reflection of the impact of rising mortgage rates on home sales. • [Russia to Continue Oil Output Cuts]( Russia stated that it will continue its 500,000 barrel per day production cut through the end of June. The cut is in accordance with an agreement with the OPEC+ members, who are looking to cut production. Oil prices have been close to $70, well under a peak of $120 per barrel set early last year. • [PacWest Avoids Capital Raise]( California-based PacWest Bancorp (PACW) dropped yesterday after the company stated it would avoid a capital raise at this time, citing depressed market prices for the bank’s shares. The bank noted that its deposit base has declined 20 percent since the start of the crisis. • [Tencent Returns to Growth]( Chinese tech company Tencent is reporting that it grew its profits last year by 12 percent. The move came as the company cut as many as 4,000 jobs across various departments. Even with the improved profitability, the company reported its first-ever drop in annual revenues. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP MTCH 4.25% AMD 3.647% NVDA 3.096% LULU 2.831% LRCX 1.486% BOTTOM FRC 11.718% CMA 7.197% LNC 6.17% MTB 6.021% USB 5.704% Quote of the Day Since 1955, every time the fed funds rate has breached the 10-year yield’s cycle low, a recession and accompanying change in monetary policy has occurred within the next 18 months. - Wells Fargo, in an analyst note, looking at the odds of a recession being highly likely within the next 12 months, even if interest rates start to move down before then. Sponsored Content [Propel Your Stock Selection with Simple A.I.]( With inflation, massive layoffs at tech companies, and persistent volatility…are traders really in the clear? We're in a critical phase of the markets. And today we’ll be going over how to make the most of this opportune time. I’m hosting a [F-R-E-E Live A.I. Market Training]( for traders interested in learning more about using artificial intelligence in the markets. 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