💸Here’s How the Fed Knows When Inflation Is Going Away

Good morning. Traders started to bet that the Fed would only raise interest rates 0.5 percent in... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Traders started to bet that the Fed would only raise interest rates 0.5 percent in December starting last week. One Fed President, Jim Bullard out of St. Louis, threw cold water on that notion on Monday. He stated that the Fed still “has a ways to go” to get to restrictive interest rates. That’s certainly true. With rates near 4 percent but inflation still reading over 7 percent, rates are still negative in real terms. If inflation comes down to the 5 percent range as rates rise up to the 5 percent level, then they’ll only be neutral in real terms. That suggests that it will still be several more months of rate hikes ahead. And even if the pace of rate hikes slows… they’ll still be rising, which tends to hold back stocks and other risk assets. Traders may still see a modest Santa Claus rally to end the year, but shouldn’t build up their hopes on a full-blown bull market again quite yet. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [A.I. Global Intermarket Analysis is Now Waiting]( Will energy continue to thrive? Will the indices bounce back? Find out - LIVE. Forget opinions, find confidence in your trades using artificial intelligence. We'll share with you at least 3 top stock picks in our special free, LIVE session. Learn how to forecast market trends 72 hours in advance with up to 87.4% accuracy (documented and verified). [Save your seat here to learn today.]( MARKETS DOW 33,849.46 -1.45% S&P 3,963.94 -1.54% NASDAQ 11,049.50 -1.58% *As of market close • Stocks slid on Monday, amid rising pandemic protests in China. • Oil rose 0.8 percent, closing at $76.86 per barrel. • Gold slid 0.8 percent, hitting $1740 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin last going for $16,253 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [Add This Big Tech Stock to Your Holiday Shopping List]( The past year has been brutal for tech companies. That’s true of both early-stage small-cap stocks or large-cap established names. But for those who have been patient, this year’s selloff has set the stage for a future rally – meaning it may be time to start buying in tech. Investors can start by buying the big-cap names. These are the companies that have the cash flow and market share to thrive right now, and aren’t as dependent on market conditions as smaller stocks. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)]( Gary Mick, chief financial officer at Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), recently added 7,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 21 percent, and came to a total cost just under $155,000. He was joined by a director and a major holder, who both picked up 150,000 shares a day later. The total cost for those trades came to over $3.3 million each. Overall, there have been 20 insider buys and zero sales in the last year » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)]( Shares of packaged food company The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) are up about 12 percent over the past year. One trader sees a further long-term uptrend for shares playing out through next summer. That’s based on the July 2023 $45 calls. With 233 days until expiration, 3,195 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 216, for a 15-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $1.09 to make the bet. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Stocks Drop on China Protests]( Protests in China over the country’s zero-Covid policy sent stocks lower on Monday. Three years of harsh lockdowns, which include shutting down entire cities where Covid cases are detected, has caused youth unemployment to rise to nearly 20 percent. The protests and lockdowns are also likely to further delay any recovery in global supply chains. • [Online Black Friday Sales Hit New Record]( Adobe Analytics reports that online Black Friday sales topped $9.1 billion in the US this year, a new record. That’s a 2.3 percent rise compared to last year. The largest increase came from electronics, toys, and smart home equipment. However, analysts note that some of that higher price comes from inflation, not from a higher volume of sales. • [BlockFi Files for Bankruptcy]( BlockFi, a cryptocurrency lending firm, has filed for bankruptcy protection in New Jersey yesterday. The company offered depositors high yields on their cryptocurrency holdings, but was caught up on the bankruptcy of broker FTX earlier in the month. • [Yahoo Acquires 25 Percent Stake in Taboola]( Yahoo is taking a 25 percent stake in advertising network Taboola. In exchange, Taboola is becoming Yahoo’s native ad partner with a 30-year agreement. Taboola offers content recommendation widgets on websites, which lead to third-party sites. • [Meta Fined $276 Million for Data-Scraping Leak]( Meta Platforms (META) is being fine $276 million by European Union regulators, as the region looks to tighten regulations on big tech companies. The fine comes from a data leak on Facebook that compromised half a billion user’s data, notably phone numbers, from data scrapers. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP CTLT 10.326% TCOM 8.651% WYNN 4.03% NTES 2.011% ATVI 1.872% BOTTOM LUMN 6.164% VFC 5.693% MAC 5.627% TDG 5.255% ZM 5.192% Quote of the Day There are many crosscurrents with the consumer. Inflation is certainly hurting the middle- to lower-income consumer. However, there’s a tight labor market at 3.7% unemployment. There are lots of positives about the consumer, too. The consumer is going out again; inflation is negatively impacting consumer discretionary categories. - Oliver Chen, senior equity research analyst at Cowen, on why consumers look strong going into the holiday season, even among a more mixed picture overall. Sponsored Content [Push Your Trading Boundaries With Simple A.I.]( The thought of infinity. The idea of technology. How far will we push the boundaries? And here you are trading, to protect and grow your money in a never-ending decision-making process. Trading is exhausting in times like this, but luckily there are tools to free yourself from the burden of an emotional roller coaster. You can actually access the best information to make much smarter trades. There are hidden and correlated relationships that are accurately identified and readily available at your fingertips thanks to artificial intelligence. You rely on technology every day, so why aren't you taking advantage of it to be more confident and consistent in the markets? Not sure the best way to get started? 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