😎What the Fed Is Really Looking for Before Pivoting

Good morning. Most traders are focused on inflation, and how the Fed is reacting to it by raising... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Most traders are focused on inflation, and how the Fed is reacting to it by raising interest rates. But that may not be the real piece of data the central bank is looking at. In order to crush inflation, demand has to take a hit. In order for that to happen, consumers need to pull back on spending. That typically doesn’t happen voluntarily. What does cause a meaningful pullback in consumer spending is higher unemployment. That’s when hundreds of thousands, or even millions or people are unable to spend extra. While last week’s inflation read led to a big market jump, we’re still in a bear market. And until the job market gets worse, we can expect the rate hikes to continue – even if they slow. Until that changes, use market jumps to take profits on long-side positions, and keep watching for trades on the short side. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [Register For our A.I. Stock Market Training]( There's a simple, powerful tool that traders are using to follow a set of rules I like to call pick, predict, and protect. Those using artificial intelligence are likely thriving alongside these rules, and the technology is now available at your fingertips. Today, I urge you to watch live how traders are using predictive indicators to interpret intermarket data in an innovative and simple way to forecast up to three days ahead of time what a particular market or security is about to do. We have a live training coming up that will show you exactly how you can easily use A.I. to predict the stock market. [Save your seat here to learn today.]( MARKETS DOW 33,536.70 -0.63% S&P 3,957.25 -0.89% NASDAQ 11,196.22 -1.12% *As of market close • Stocks closed lower on Monday, reversing part of last week’s rally. • Oil dropped 4.2 percent, closing at $85.27 per barrel. • Gold rose 0.4 percent, last going for about $1,776 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies trended lower, with Bitcoin at $16,320 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [In Bear Markets, Follow Companies with Cash to Burn]( Many companies get into trouble overleveraging while times are good. They take on too much debt. That becomes a problem with things slow, and the costs to finance that debt become too much to bear. In contrast, a number of companies have strong balance sheets. Even companies with some debt, but substantial cash, are in a great place right now. They can potentially make a great acquisition at a great price, or find ways to return that cash to shareholders. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: American Express (AXP)]( Clayton Joseph, a director at American Express (AXP), recently bought 1,000 shares. The purchase came to a total price of just under $150,000, and represents an initial stake for the director. This represents the first insider buy at the company since late 2020. Otherwise, company insiders, mostly executives, have been steady and consistent sellers of shares over the past three years, with a large spike in insider selling occurring back in February of this year. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Oracle (ORCL)]( Shares of database software company Oracle (ORCL) are up nearly 30 percent in the past month following the stock market’s strong rebound. One trader sees a short-term pullback ahead. That’s based on the December 2 $75 puts. With 17 days until expiration, 2,565 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 129, for a 20-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.02 to make the bearish bet. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Brainard Sees Slower Pace of Rate Hikes Ahead]( Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated that it would “soon” be appropriate for the central bank to slow the pace of its rate hikes. The latest Fed statement comes as inflation rates are starting to show a year-over-year decline. However, with interest rates around 4 percent and inflation still over 7 percent, there’s still some room to go. • [Retailers Roll out Black Friday Deals]( A number of retailers have started rolling out deals now, well ahead of the traditional Black Friday sales event. Part of the reason is the result of high inventories. Relative to the past few years, when a number of desired items have been scarce, retailers are sitting on relatively large amounts of goods going into the holiday season. • [Client Funds Missing at FTX]( A number of sources reported over the weekend that at least $1 billion in customer funds have vanished from crypto exchange FTX. Total estimates are for a losses between $1.7 and $2 billion. The lost funds have been revealed following the exchange’s collapse in the past week, and amid news that client funds were used for a variety of reasons. • [Tech Companies Seen as Midterm’s Biggest Winners]( With a number of races still being counted a week after the midterm election, tech companies have come out as a big winner. A divided congress is unlikely to move forward on any major legislation, including laws that could have curbed the influence of big tech. • [GoFreight Raises $28 Million]( Startup GoFreight, which sees itself as the “Shopify of freight shipping,” has raised $28 million in Series A funding. The company currently has about 1,000 customers, and helps them manage their global supply chains, with a goal of setting up freight forwarding in a few minutes, rather than the current industry standard of 24-48 hours. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP CF 5.214% MRNA 4.574% JD 3.924% ETSY 3.546% PFE 3.445% BOTTOM HAS 9.857% BBWI 8.167% SIVB 6.731% SYF 6.165% GNRC 6.154% Quote of the Day It’s so tempting to want to go back to the old leaders, to go back to the top of the market, the techs, the Apples. I think that would be the mistake here. - Chris Verrone, analyst at Strategas, on why other stocks will likely lead the market higher off of its bear market lows, when such a turnaround does start. Sponsored Content [Your Market Crash Shield is Artificial Intelligence]( People have seen severe losses in the stock market. Will it get better or worse for the remainder of Q4? As rising prices continue putting a big dent in our wallets, you must protect your portfolio and outpace inflation. Or risk being at the mercy of economic factors out of your control. Whatever you have going on, you're not going to want to miss this [FREE Live Training]( to learn how to dominate volatile markets with artificial intelligence. Our Pro-Trader will reveal 4 A.I. scanned stock trends in real-time with this tool. Plus, bring your own ticker symbols for us to forecast too, and we'll get to as many as time allows. Not sure the best way to get started? 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