😟Beware the Moving Goalposts of a Recession

Good morning. After seeing the surprise negative Q1 GDP numbers, and the ongoing inflation, we... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. After seeing the surprise negative Q1 GDP numbers, and the ongoing inflation, we went out on a short limb to state that we’re already in a recession. We should see confirmation of that this week when the initial Q2 GDP data for 2022 is released. One sign that things could be ugly is in the messaging that’s already occurring. Over the weekend, the White House came out with a statement that, even if the economy dropped for two quarters in a row, it may not really be in a recession. However, that’s literally the definition, at least as used by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Of course, the NBER didn’t declare the 2008 recession until about a year after it happened. In short, don’t be fooled by any changed definitions or massaged terms coming out this week. It’s still a bear market, and one where traders need to be nimble. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [“IMPERIUM”: The #1 Investment of the 2020s]( Could the technology behind this [odd-looking machine]( really be the most transformative innovation in history? Experts are screaming “YES”! Elon Musk calls it “amazing…” A former Apple CEO says “[it will] have a far bigger impact on humanity than the Internet”… While a Harvard Ph.D. says it will “[surpass] the space, atomic, and electronic revolutions in its significance.” It’s a technology I call “Imperium.” [And it’s about to spark the biggest investment mega trend in history … with one small Silicon Valley company at the center of it all. Want the details? Then click here now…]( MARKETS DOW 31,990.04 +0.28% S&P 3,966.85 +0.13% NASDAQ 11,782.67 -0.43% *As of market close • Stocks traded mixed on Monday, thanks to a late-day rally. • Oil rallied 2.1 percent, closing at $96.73 per barrel. • Gold slid 0.6 percent, last going for $1,716 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies slightly declined, with Bitcoin at $21,873 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [For the Best Profits Now, Look for Low-Cost Providers]( The past few years has been great for some sectors. For others, it’s been tough. The restaurant space has had to rapidly change to pandemic protocols, a rise in takeout orders, and increased outdoor dining, to say nothing about supply chain issues. However, many of these companies have been holding up well. In a potentially slowing economy, though, those offering fares with lower-priced items will likely hold up the best – and may even grow in today’s environment. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: CrossFirst Bankshares (CFB)]( Benjamin Clouse, CFO at CrossFirst Bankshares (CFB), recently added 7,500 shares to his holdings. The buy increased his stake by just over 101 percent, and came to a total cost just over $97,400. That’s the first insider buy at the regional bank so far this year. One company director has been a regular and consistent seller of shares in the past year. Going further back, insider sales have likewise exceeded small insider buys after a selloff in shares. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)]( Shares of search engine giant Alphabet (GOOGL) have shed nearly 20 percent of their value in the past year. One trader sees the potential for a further decline in shares in the next 14 months. That’s based on the September 2023 $53 puts. With 416 days until expiration, 6,299 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 150, for a 42-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the pus paid $0.88 to make the bearish bet. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Likelihood of Food Shortage Increasing]( Rising prices for goods like fertilizer and the likelihood of significantly lower food-related exports from regions such as Ukraine are likely to weigh on food prices going forward. That points to higher food prices globally. In the US, which produces most of its own food, the risks of outright shortages are lower, but prices are likely to remain high. • [Credit Card Delinquency Rates Rise]( Credit card companies are reporting higher delinquency rates, indicating that customers are using more credit for longer, with a few even skimping out on their bills. That’s a sign that the economy is slowing down amid high inflation and rising interest rates. • [Investors Bet on Rate Cuts in 2023]( Investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates this year. And an increasing number expect interest rate cuts to occur by the latter half of 2023. Such an event could occur if inflation slows sufficiently and if the economy continues to move along at a slow rate of growth. • [NFL Will Launch Its Own Streaming Service]( The National Football League (NFL) is joining the streaming game with its own service. Dubbed NFL+, it will launch at a price of $4.99 per month, and include all out-of-market preseason games. The service will also include mobile device access to live local regular season and post-season games. • [Roblox Adds Developer Tools]( Metaverse company Roblox (RBLX) is adding a suite of developer tools to move itself beyond just a gaming platform. The company is looking to provide a platform where users can create their own games, and is developing additional tools with the idea that the metaverse, rather than a web browser, will be the main way to go online. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP SIVB 7.718% FANG 6.105% MRO 6.073% APA 5.958% CF 5.837% BOTTOM NEM 13.865% ALGN 5.572% IDXX 5.311% CRM 3.801% HAS 3.396% Quote of the Day Snap has managed to snap the uptrend in the Nasdaq by reporting disappointing earnings, which has created a cascading effect on the S&P. This is just an example of the volatility that investors should expect as earnings are reported, and, therefore, could cause fluctuations in prices in response to better than or worse than results. - Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on last week’s earnings report from Snap (SNAP), and how high market volatility is likely in the coming weeks as companies both hit or miss massively on earnings. Sponsored Content [“IMPERIUM”: The #1 Investment of the 2020s]( Could the technology behind this [odd-looking machine]( really be the most transformative innovation in history? Experts are screaming “YES”! Elon Musk calls it “amazing…” A former Apple CEO says “[it will] have a far bigger impact on humanity than the Internet”… While a Harvard Ph.D. says it will “[surpass] the space, atomic, and electronic revolutions in its significance.” It’s a technology I call “Imperium.” [And it’s about to spark the biggest investment mega trend in history … with one small Silicon Valley company at the center of it all. Want the details? Then click here now…]( Not sure the best way to get started? 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