😲Why It May Be Time to Consider a Market Overreaction to Inflation

Good morning. Most of last year, politicians and central bankers stated that inflation was... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Most of last year, politicians and central bankers stated that inflation was transitory. With the pandemic spending and stimulus over, and with central banks now tightening, that’s likely correct, even if it means we’re facing a recession. But markets don’t just react to changing conditions. They tend to overreact. So the overreaction to higher inflation could lead to an overshoot, and potentially even deflation. We’re already starting to see commodity prices start to fall. Other data, like housing sales and home prices, could indicate a further drop in prices. For now, the trend looks like a strong dis-inflation. But much like inflation could spiral out of control, so could deflation if it takes hold. Investors should continue to stay cautious, and expect markets to remain volatile. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [Buy this $2 Stock ASAP! Before Reddit gets in!]( Robinhood traders have piled $78 billion into this market... Driving tiny tech stock gains of 3,000%, 8,942%, and 12,592% in 2020. [Now their next one is here.]( What if I told you that I have a system that can detect when these tiny stocks are on the verge of exploding… One of them is a [tiny International real estate company]( that trades for just $2.18. [Click Here to Buy in Right Now]( MARKETS DOW 31,384.55 +1.12% S&P 3,902.62 +1.50% NASDAQ 11,621.35 +2.28% *As of market close • Stocks closed higher on Thursday, continuing off of Wednesday’s gains. • Oil rose 4.0 percent, closing at $102.45 per barrel. • Gold rose 0.2 percent, last going for $1,739 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin at $21,752 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [Follow This Event for a Quick Profit in a Stock]( The stock market loves it when a company makes some kind of positive change. If a company announces a dividend or buyback program, shares will often rally heavily on the news. Another event that’s seen a jump in shares in recent years has been the announcement of a stock split. While it doesn’t change the total value of a company, it does change how many share investors have, and the price per share. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: Source Capital (SOR)]( Mark Lipson, a director at Source Capital (SOR), recently added 1,325 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 49 percent, and came to a total cost of just under $54,000. This comes after a company VP made three buys back in June, totaling just over 2,500 shares. Over the past three years, company insiders, including both executives and directors, have been modest buyers of shares, with only one insider sale in late 2019. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)]( Shares of mining giant Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) are down 21 percent over the past year thanks to a slide in recent months. One trader sees the possibility for a rebound ahead in the coming months. That’s based on the February $33 calls. With 224 days until expiration, 10,047 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 101, for a 99-fold surge in volume on the option. The buyer of the calls paid $2.74 to get into the trade. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Jobless Claims Rise]( The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment rose to 235,000 last week. That’s an increase of 4,000 from the prior week. The number marks the highest level since mid-January. Economists expected a total of 230,500 initial claims. • [Mortgage Rates Slide at Fastest Rate Since 2008]( 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped to an average of 5.3 percent this week, down from 5.7 percent the week before. That’s the largest drop since late 2008, and a sign of concern over the rising possibility of a recession. The rate is still well over this time last year, when the 30-year fixed was at 2.9 percent. • [Copper Prices Slide on Recession Concerns]( Copper, a metal widely used in industrial goods, is widely viewed as a barometer for the economy. The metal is now sliding to its lowest level since late 2020, reaching a price of $3.408 per pound. The drop reflects the rising concern over a recession in the coming months. • [Gasoline Futures Drop Following Oil]( Oil prices recently slid back under $100, and gasoline futures are likewise starting to drop. Futures have dropped about 10 percent this week, indicating that the national average for gasoline prices could likewise drop in the coming weeks, with an estimate of $4 to $4.25 by the end of August. • [Twitter Unveils “CoTweets” Option]( Social media platform Twitter (TWTR) is testing a “CoTweets” option that would allow multiple users to co-author tweets. The limited testing will allow the company to learn how people will use the feature. It’s a move towards making the platform easier for collaboration. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP ON 9.515% APA 8.763% MRNA 7.62% KLAC 7.526% TCOM 7.41% BOTTOM CL 2.123% AON 1.913% OTIS 1.612% CHTR 1.58% XEL 1.338% Quote of the Day Everybody is both emotionally and sort of market level exhausted. So, I think we still have a summer of watching for what the Fed does, watching for what happens in international policy, watching for the directionality of CPI. - Alli McCartney, managing director at UBS Private Wealth Management, on why the market will likely trade sideways or lower over the summer until there’s a clearer sign that inflation is coming down. Sponsored Content [Buy this $2 Stock ASAP! Before Reddit gets in!]( Robinhood traders have piled $78 billion into this market... Driving tiny tech stock gains of 3,000%, 8,942%, and 12,592% in 2020. [Now their next one is here.]( What if I told you that I have a system that can detect when these tiny stocks are on the verge of exploding… One of them is a [tiny International real estate company]( that trades for just $2.18. [Click Here to Buy in Right Now]( Not sure the best way to get started? 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